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EU Referendum (Read 279422 times)

Will Hunt

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#150 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 02:24:20 pm
We’re sleepwalking into Mays deal... It will become the default option and we’ll end up drifting into it after a couple of years.

I am (a) glad that it seems to have (probably) knocked hard brexit on the head (for now) but (b) really quite angry that Labour - no its not labour its Corbyn - are doing nothing about this. Just playing politics holding out for a GE.

RE: Barrows/Malham.

Its like a car of four people leaving Leeds to head to Almscliff. We always go to almscliff moans one of them - I’m bored of almscliff says passenger 2. For once the normally quiet passenger 3 pipes up one says - yeah me too. Passenger 2 says, well maybe we should try somewhere else - lets go to Earl. The driver doesn’t want to go - she’s quite happy with Almscliff  and passenger three umms and aahs, but then decides alright lets go somewhere different.

So they change direction to Earl - but the clouds look a bit grey that way. Passenger 1 checks the forecast on his phone “rain over Earl!! (SHOCK”, Passenger 2 checks a different weather app and says “mine says it’ll be fine”. A great argument erupts in the car -“there’s always something you can do in the rain” - “it’ll be terrible - it will all be wet” but they’re already part way there. Soon they are coming past Ilkley quarry - so the driver decides they’ll stop there as everyone can climb and its not raining. Though its still polished and full of people saying what are you doing..

We're actually sleepwalking into No Deal, which is the only option at the moment which doesn't require parliamentary approval. Thinking at the moment is that parliament will not approve the deal or a second referendum. This only leaves us with the default which is for the Article 50 time bomb to tick down to 0.

Labour seem to have dug a trench opposing the deal. The Tories haven't yet succeeded in their coup, thus the government have dug a trench for the deal. No artillery support in the form of the DUP. Parliamentary arithmetic is in a stalemate.

I think in a few weeks time each side will see that the other isn't going to budge and a consensus will grow for a referendum so that the blame for the outcome can be apportioned to the public. They'll have to be quick because there's really not much time to run a referendum with all the campaigning and logistics that will involve.

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#151 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 02:37:41 pm
* For those who like an analogy: we all get in the car and decide, on a vote, to go to Malham. Then en-route we realise its the Malham show this weekend and the whole palce will be rammed.. it might be fine but it might not. But we're not allowed to decide whether to change our minds and go to Kilnsey instead... wtf??

To refine your analogy,
100 of you get in shark's 3.2L BMW OakSeigeWagon and roll slowly up the A629 to Malham - there's no rush it's been 12 years. 52 of you are keen for Malham and 48 are vehemently against cryptic undercuts, sidepulls and being subjected to belay fury and obscenity-ridden tirades, and would much rather just go to Kilnsey because it's more like a typical Euro crag. Just as you approach the outskirts of Gargrave the met office app suggests conditions at Malham might not be 100% perfect for hard redpointing and the price of a pint in the Lister Arms has increased.
The 48 want to divert to Kilnsey as they kept saying all along, while a small group of the 52 Malham group are unhappy that conditions aren't going to allow for perfect conditions for their long-held dream of a redpoint of Rainman 9b, which everyone else in the car has always secretly thought is a totally unrealistic goal considering their previous best redpoint is 8b+. The discussion goes round and round in circles as does Shark's OakSeigeWagon while you all run out of fuel. A Northern Irish climber holds the credit card to pay for petrol but refuses to allow shark to use it. You get fuck all done.

That was poetry.

However, the real story ends in the Foundry.

Still, this is news:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/20/brexit-supreme-court-rejects-government-attempt-to-derail-legal-action-to-revoke-article-50
« Last Edit: November 20, 2018, 02:44:18 pm by Oldmanmatt »

Oldmanmatt

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« Last Edit: November 20, 2018, 06:22:42 pm by Oldmanmatt »

petejh

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#153 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 07:03:02 pm
That yougov survey was taken on November 15th... The draft agreement was barely out in the public domain by then. How could anyone surveyed have had the chance to digest the details of the withdrawal agreement by then? Quite simply they couldn't. All it shows is a finger in the air of public opinion in the immediate media feeding frenzy following the draft agreement hitting.

Oldmanmatt

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#154 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 07:15:32 pm
That yougov survey was taken on November 15th... The draft agreement was barely out in the public domain by then. How could anyone surveyed have had the chance to digest the details of the withdrawal agreement by then? Quite simply they couldn't. All it shows is a finger in the air of public opinion in the immediate media feeding frenzy following the draft agreement hitting.

Do you think it’s changed? Has the media coverage changed it’s tone? Have hordes of people poured over the details?

I’d be surprised if it’s moved much, frankly, and even more so if opinion had swung massively behind the ERG. I expect those results will be updated shortly, too. I know it’s a full five days out of date, but two of those were weekend days.

I’ll keep an eye on the updates and let you know if your gut is right...

petejh

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#155 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 07:26:02 pm
My gut is that people won't move behind the ERG but they will move behind the May draft agreement.

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#156 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 07:39:36 pm
IMHO the biggest media shift is now recognition that there is hard brexit, Mays deal or no brexit. The last point an admission by may at her presser announcing her deal.

The prospect of no brexit (and the second referendum that is most likely oath to this) has been out of the debate in the media previously...

Oldmanmatt

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#157 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 07:41:06 pm
My gut is that people won't move behind the ERG but they will move behind the May draft agreement.

That seems likely.

Though I expect it will be more a lack lustre resignation, than “getting behind”.

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#158 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 09:37:54 pm
IMHO the biggest media shift is now recognition that there is hard brexit, Mays deal or no brexit. The last point an admission by may at her presser announcing her deal.

Surely May’s deal is a hard-ish Brexit, as it takes us out of the single market? It seems we stay in some sort of customs union for some length of time but it’s certainly not a soft Brexit.

No deal is a moron’s choice, of course, but inexplicably popular amongst Leavers. It must be embarrassing for the smarter Leavers to be bracketed in with people who are either very ill-informed, very stupid or very reckless.

petejh

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#159 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 09:45:54 pm
About equally embarrassing as for those who would bracket people so lazily, I'd have thought.

Oldmanmatt

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#160 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 09:47:25 pm
Sorry forthe Facebook link, and I haven’t had time to actually watch it yet, but might be interesting:

https://www.facebook.com/130437690316977/posts/2319512838076107/

Oldmanmatt

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#161 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 09:58:32 pm
About equally embarrassing as for those who would bracket people so lazily, I'd have thought.

Oh come on.

Leaver, the bracket is Leaver.
 Granted, it ignores the sub-sets, that exist in any bracket or or social division, but it’s a valid bracket.

Furthermore, you most definitely don’t like being lumped in with them; it’s been a clash point throughout this discussion. I don’t blame you either.




seankenny

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#162 Re: EU Referendum
November 20, 2018, 10:46:35 pm
About equally embarrassing as for those who would bracket people so lazily, I'd have thought.

Conservative voter, Labour voter, Green voter - all valid groupings of people. Remoaners are definitely a group - a group of saboteurs whose recalcitrance has scuppered Brexit, according to some.

However Leave voters cannot - and should not ever! - be lumped together. Especially when half of them are plainly utterly foolish. It wouldn’t look too good for the others, would it?

Anyhow surely the point is that a hard Brexit such as we appear to be getting is the most economically damaging one of all. That appears to have been forgotten for the moment. Which bit of the welfare state can we do without? My money is on expensive cancer drugs, small town policing and functioning secondary schools. But that’s just a guess.


TobyD

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#163 Re: EU Referendum
November 21, 2018, 09:56:46 am


Conservative voter, Labour voter, Green voter - all valid groupings of people. Remoaners are definitely a group - a group of saboteurs whose recalcitrance has scuppered Brexit, according to some.


I don't think anyone has 'scuppered' Brexit. Few of its enthusiasts admitted, or realised how difficult separating, renegotiating or replacing 40 years of legal entanglement would be. In fact I'd guess few outside the area of international law experts really understood this, I definitely didn't.

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#164 Re: EU Referendum
November 21, 2018, 10:00:09 am
A piece of entertaining and intelligent historical perspective from Simon Jenkins this morning:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/21/britain-go-back-european-club-history-leave

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#165 Re: EU Referendum
November 21, 2018, 10:10:48 am
I don't think anyone has 'scuppered' Brexit. Few of its enthusiasts admitted, or realised how difficult separating, renegotiating or replacing 40 years of legal entanglement would be. In fact I'd guess few outside the area of international law experts really understood this, I definitely didn't.

Really? I thought it was blindingly obvious from the start. Admittedly I've had some involvement with standards and regulations in my work but still...

I blame the (right-wing) press mainly. They've been instrumental in misinforming the public and not holding lying politicians to account.

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#166 Re: EU Referendum
November 21, 2018, 10:40:21 am
I didn't ever believe that leaving would be like leaving a golf club, as some seem to have thought, but I hadn't fully considered the real impact of leaving on really important things like the import and regulation of medication. The impact on the car industry and any other just in time manufacturing was fairly well known if you read newspapers / showed an interest, but pre-referendum medication, nuclear regulation and waste disposal, and scientific research not so much, outside of those in those fields.


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#168 Re: EU Referendum
November 21, 2018, 11:21:14 pm

Oldmanmatt

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#169 Re: EU Referendum
November 23, 2018, 10:44:35 am

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#170 Re: EU Referendum
November 23, 2018, 11:06:24 am

And, then there’s Raab, really getting into the Xmas spirit:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/23/dominic-raab-theresa-mays-deal-worse-than-staying-in-eu?CMP=fb_gu


Not as if he had any hand in this, at all.

I don't think he did, that's (one of the reasons) why he's kicking off.

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#171 Re: EU Referendum
November 26, 2018, 10:40:38 am
I think he peered into the abyss and it peered back.

TobyD

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#172 Re: EU Referendum
November 26, 2018, 01:28:47 pm

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#173 Re: EU Referendum
November 26, 2018, 05:36:43 pm
New Brexit economic impact assessments here, courtesy of the FT's economics editor:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1066968976071303168.html

Cost is about a third of the financial crisis or the equivalent of £700 to £1,100 per person, every year (compare to the average salary of 30k). Before the "economics knows nothing" bleaters sceptics tell us all forecasts are worthless, I'll point out that it's a conditional not an unconditional forecast. That's the difference between "if you keep eating so many pies you're going to be fatter than you would otherwise be" vs "your pie habit will give you diabetes in 2027".

One has to assume that the effect won't just be on personal finances, but also on the finances of our welfare state too. Which services are worth cutting for Brext? High-end cancer drugs? Benefits for working families? Functioning national parks?

I wouldn't bet the house on any of these delightful Brexit impacts being evenly distributed across the UK, because they never are, are they?

You may still believe that there are upsides in ten years' time but I suspect our room for manoeuvre will be pretty limited:
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/23/may-s-brexit-deal-is-a-humiliation-for-britain






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#174 Re: EU Referendum
November 26, 2018, 11:21:11 pm
I can understand why some people voted for leave, but none of their motivation can have been economic if they paid attention to any information on the subject. Free trade deals, commonwealth, global outreach it's all total cloud Cuckoo Land, the EU is the most sophisticated trading block on the planet and leaving it is a gigantic economic mistake.
The only sane counterarguments as far as I can see revolve around control over immigration which I can understand but not necessarily agree with, control over fishing rights- ditto, and a notion of national sovereignty, which may be sane yet misguided in my opinion. Fetishisation of sovereignty ignores the enormous change in the nature and position of the nation state in the age of huge corporations, web based everything and global trading blocks.

 

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