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EU Referendum (Read 279433 times)

mrjonathanr

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#550 Re: EU Referendum
February 19, 2019, 07:04:16 pm
Well it wouldn’t be very cynical if you didn’t  ;)

This sort of Jewish conspiracy nonsense, from High Peak Labour MP Ruth George, can’t be pulling Berger back into the fold:

Quote
Support from the State of Israel, which supports both Conservative and Labour ‘Friends of Israel’, of which Luciana [Berger] was chair, is possible and I would not condemn those who suggest it, especially when the group’s financial backers are not being revealed

FWIW Several years ago, before the issue really hit the press, after multiple occasions of anti-Semitic speech were dealt with in the most lukewarm and tolerant way, I concluded that Corbyn was an anti-Semite. I really don’t see any reason to change my mind.

The irony is I suspect that Corbyn would never recognise it in himself.

TobyD

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#551 Re: EU Referendum
February 19, 2019, 10:51:29 pm
From an opinion piece by Daniel Finkelstein:

"Yesterday, in modern Britain, a young woman was driven out of Britain’s biggest progressive party by people who hate Jews and by other people who won’t do anything about it. Set against that, so much else just seems blah."

I couldn't agree more. The reaction of Corbyn seems to be a sort of stubborn apathy. Labour is probably the party I'd most like to vote for, but I couldn't imagine Corbyn coping with being a PM. I can't help hoping that the latest resignation this evening is by no means the last.

jwi

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#552 Re: EU Referendum
February 19, 2019, 11:15:47 pm

The irony is I suspect that Corbyn would never recognise it in himself.

Almost nobody believe that they are racist. And most believe they have as much right to define what exactly constitute racism as persecuted groups.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 11:37:35 pm by jwi »

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#553 Re: EU Referendum
February 19, 2019, 11:24:51 pm
From an opinion piece by Daniel Finkelstein:

"Yesterday, in modern Britain, a young woman was driven out of Britain’s biggest progressive party by people who hate Jews and by other people who won’t do anything about it. Set against that, so much else just seems blah."

This isn’t the same Daniel Finkelstein who sits as a Conservative lord, is it?

TobyD

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#554 Re: EU Referendum
February 19, 2019, 11:33:54 pm
Racism is saying that the breakaway group are funded by Israel. Corbyn doesn't seem outwardly that crass, but he enables and is an apologist for this behaviour, he's been thus since he became leader. The idea that he could renegotiate the deal with the EU, as he constantly says is as if not more ridiculous than Mays current idea.

joel182

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#555 Re: EU Referendum
February 19, 2019, 11:35:16 pm
Somewhat off topic, but today's Daily Podcast from the NYT was about the Democrats and Israel. I thought it made for interesting listening.

TobyD

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#556 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 08:32:56 am
From an opinion piece by Daniel Finkelstein:

"Yesterday, in modern Britain, a young woman was driven out of Britain’s biggest progressive party by people who hate Jews and by other people who won’t do anything about it. Set against that, so much else just seems blah."

This isn’t the same Daniel Finkelstein who sits as a Conservative lord, is it?

I refer you to this in the Guardian today:
The choice is clear for Labour MPs. Stay with Corbyn or leave the party

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/corbyn-labour-party-broad-church?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Political party colour is becoming increasingly irrelevant on Brexit. I think that merely denouncing someone as Tory or Labour is rather meaningless. Nick Boles is hardly similar to JRM, or indeed Tom Watson to Corbyn.

tommytwotone

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#557 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 08:59:47 am
So a look at the betting markets on Brexit make for interesting reading.


UK currently 4/11 not to leave the EU on 29th March 2019, No Deal on 29th March 2019 currently at 3/1. Leaving with a deal is 6/1!


Another EU referendum is currently 2/7 for No, 5/2 for Yes.


I know on this stuff that the markets have been wrong before but based purely on the odds, looking like we're heading for a (Br)extension (thank me later) of Article 50, no chance of a People's Vote then.








spidermonkey09

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#558 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 09:07:11 am
So a look at the betting markets on Brexit make for interesting reading.


UK currently 4/11 not to leave the EU on 29th March 2019, No Deal on 29th March 2019 currently at 3/1. Leaving with a deal is 6/1!


Another EU referendum is currently 2/7 for No, 5/2 for Yes.


I know on this stuff that the markets have been wrong before but based purely on the odds, looking like we're heading for a (Br)extension (thank me later) of Article 50, no chance of a People's Vote then.

The day of the referendum, my dad (who has followed horses and been a betting man his whole life) messaged me in Australia with the immortal words as follows:

"Remain in to 1.18 on Betfair, brexit out to 9/2, £54m already matched, all over bar the shouting and its not even midday yet. You can rest easy in your bed (unless the bookies have dropped the biggest ricket since Dettori's seven at Ascot."

As such, I view all political markets with healthy scepticism ever since, although this does make interesting reading. I don't think leaving with a deal is bad value there on the basis that quite a lot could change in the last 48 hours before the 29th.

tommytwotone

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#559 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 09:27:08 am
I was working at William Hill (in the Trading dept) at the time of the referendum.


One of our tech guys dropped £500 on Remain on the afternoon of the vote on the basis that it was "buying money" at (I think) 1/10.


Assuming he had some explaining to do the next morning when his missus found out.


Agree with your contention re: that 6/1 though. From what they've saying on Brexitcast at least there seem to be serious moves towards getting something that will get past UK Govt. That said the "Malthouse Compromise" was all but killed off yesterday, so the ERG are on the warpath again.


 


tomtom

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#560 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 09:30:45 am
I seem to remember both you and me made some ££ with 'concience hedges' on the Brexit vote and Trump...

:)

Bookies very nearly got the GE wrong too...

But its interesting reading. Deal by 29th at 6/1 looks like great odds... Its quite possible she'll squeak some shitty version of her shitty deal over the line then.

(of course her deal is nothing more than an outline for what 'might' happen next - rather than a deal. Which most people seem to have forgotten... sorry. I'll get back under my rock)

spidermonkey09

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#561 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 09:54:36 am
I was working at William Hill (in the Trading dept) at the time of the referendum.

One of our tech guys dropped £500 on Remain on the afternoon of the vote on the basis that it was "buying money" at (I think) 1/10.

Assuming he had some explaining to do the next morning when his missus found out.

Agree with your contention re: that 6/1 though. From what they've saying on Brexitcast at least there seem to be serious moves towards getting something that will get past UK Govt. That said the "Malthouse Compromise" was all but killed off yesterday, so the ERG are on the warpath again.

You'll know precisely what you're talking about then! I'm fairly clueless ( and so was my dad, clearly...)

I was the other way round; had some insurance money on Brexit but have never been more pissed off to win a bet! Never been attracted to gambling on such short odds but the amount of cash I'm playing with, the rewards are so small as to be nonexistent.

I think No Deal is less likely than those odds suggest, but this might be overly optimistic and misplaced. I don't think there is any appetite in the commons for No Deal and enough people will stop it happening if required. Hope that's not wrong! Would agree that an extension is most likely but wouldn't be surprised if a Norway style customs union bodge got over the line at 10.55 on the 29th.


tommytwotone

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#562 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 10:36:56 am
I seem to remember both you and me made some ££ with 'concience hedges' on the Brexit vote and Trump...

:)

Bookies very nearly got the GE wrong too...

But its interesting reading. Deal by 29th at 6/1 looks like great odds... Its quite possible she'll squeak some shitty version of her shitty deal over the line then.

(of course her deal is nothing more than an outline for what 'might' happen next - rather than a deal. Which most people seem to have forgotten... sorry. I'll get back under my rock)

I made £40 at 4s with an emotional hedge on Trump (which I then donated 50/50 to an immigrant and a women's charity) but had no skin in the game on Brexit thankfully.

You're right about the markets potentially being wrong. As SM says, some value in there for the brave.


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#563 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 02:30:28 pm
I hope these FT links aren’t paywalled, some are some aren’t and I can’t see which are which.

Anyway, comment is pointless and, I suspect, so is the reality of whether or not Brexit is part of the problem; the nation was relying on this manufacturing “base” for it’s future prosperity. This base looks to be eroding rapidly:

https://www.ft.com/content/cba667f8-345e-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5

I see three Tories crossed the aisle today. I agree with their assessment of the lack of representation for the middle ground. Personally, really sick of ideologues, trying to force their “one size fits all” shit on everyone.
I will never understand, why, so many people feel obliged to slavishly follow any doctrine and reject the evidence of it’s fallibility, even as it smacks them, repeatedly, in the face.

dunnyg

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#564 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 02:36:03 pm
Many people find it incredibly hard to accept that there first assessment of something is wrong and therefor defend it to the hilt.Must be some psych studies on it...

TobyD

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#565 Re: EU Referendum
February 20, 2019, 11:29:09 pm
I hope these FT links aren’t paywalled, some are some aren’t and I can’t see which are which.

They are unfortunately. It seems like rather a coincidence that 2 major Japanese companies announce scaling down or closing in a few days immediately after the EU Japan trade deal. Meanwhile Gavin Williamson is doing all he can to wreck any deals the UK might get by threatening other countries with a military might that exists only in his otherwise rather empty skull. 

SA Chris

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#566 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 09:23:06 am
Many people find it incredibly hard to accept that there first assessment of something is wrong and therefor defend it to the hilt.Must be some psych studies on it...

Sort of reverse confirmation bias I guess.

TobyD

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#567 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 09:33:05 am
Many people find it incredibly hard to accept that there first assessment of something is wrong and therefor defend it to the hilt.Must be some psych studies on it...

Sort of reverse confirmation bias I guess.

cognitive dissonance.

On a slightly different note, the Sun's EU headline today is a classic: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/133B4/production/_105727787_the-sun-front-page-21.02.19.jpg

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#569 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 09:48:50 am
Many people find it incredibly hard to accept that there first assessment of something is wrong and therefor defend it to the hilt.Must be some psych studies on it...

Sort of reverse confirmation bias I guess.

Ironically, Pete would say this about me...

Yet again, I had two Spanish work experience guys start at the Bunker yesterday (we offer work placements to adult language students from Totnes European School. Gym instructors or Climbing instructors looking to up their English).
So, inevitably, I get asked what Brexit is all about. Considering they’re  both Basques, I’d expected a sympathetic attitude to the notion. It was a simple five minute conversation and the upshot was that they “have idiots, stuck in the past, too”; which seemed their take on their own nationalist.

Anyway, it got me thinking.

I’m not ideological in my opposition to Brexit. I don’t understand how anything which is, on balance, harmful to the majority of people  and the nation as a whole (regardless of the degree of that harm), is worth the nebulous aand ethereal notion of Freedom (TM) and consider such a concept to be nothing more than a poorly thought out ideology and as unobtainable as Unicorn shit.

You are already, just about, as free as it’s possible to be, in a civilised society, in a nation with 68 million opinions, on a planet, groaning under the weight of 7 Billion appetites and needs.

Nothing in this process is going to improve anyone’s level of freedom, rights, or prosperity.

Damn it, almost every society, since the dawn of language, has told tales warning of the dangers of PRIDE (TM), every religion talks of the sin of PRIDE etc etc, and, yet, here we are; letting the PRIDE do the talking.

TobyD

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#570 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 10:04:04 am
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/jeremy-gilbert/inevitable-division-politics-and-consequences-of-labour-split
A summation of current state of the Labour Party.

From the above article:
For the Labour left, the political conclusions to be drawn from this analysis are stark, but important. As I’ve already suggested - we should not be responding to the behaviour of the centrists with simple moral indignation. Their entire project is to wrap up their defence of their own elite interests in a language of moral indignation – accusing the Left of racism, of being responsible for Brexit, of ‘bullying’ (ie expecting elected representatives to be accountable to members and constituents).

If you don't mind me saying so, what an absolute crock of shit. This entire article is a hackneyed, intellectually bankrupt Marxist diatribe. When will the far left realise that Marxism is a broken ideology? There really are not any happy, progressive countries that subscribe to this sort of political ethos.
The denials of anti semitism are particularly galling.

The reference to accountability is ridiculous. Clearly a reference to MPs for 'leave' voting constituencies campaigning for remain, it ignores the entire idea of representative democracy. MPs are elected to represent the peoples best interests, not to be dictated to by the electorate. 

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#571 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 11:51:30 am
Quote
Ironically, Pete would say this about me...

It is sometimes my initial reaction to criticism, both at work and elsewhere, but usually catch myself internally before causing too much trouble. My work doesn't involve setting up the economic future of the country etc. though so I let myself off. Getting a bit  :off: though.

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#572 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 05:10:21 pm
If you don't mind me saying so, what an absolute crock of shit.


Cheers for the heads up. Will refrain from reading 'marxist' political professors in future and stick to Guardian columnists instead.

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#573 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 05:54:43 pm
If you don't mind me saying so, what an absolute crock of shit.


Cheers for the heads up. Will refrain from reading 'marxist' political professors in future and stick to Guardian columnists instead.

I dunno, I think Toby has a point.

It reads very much like a left wing version, of a typical Alt-right conspiracy theory. Terms such as “splitters” etc, just make it read like a rip off of the Monty Python “People’s Front of Judea” sketch; to me.

Incidentally, I’ve spent enough time in, supposedly, Marxist states (as they emerged from it) and spent enough time talking with relatives who lived through it (some, from the initial “people’s liberation”, to the final curtain (often more bloody than the inception)), to have any illusions of Marxist Utopias...

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#574 Re: EU Referendum
February 21, 2019, 06:09:07 pm
That's all very well, but nationalising the trains and making higher education free again isn't Marxism.

If anything is 'intellectually bankrupt', it is to cast the author, and Corbyn's policy platform, as such.

Costa Rica has abolished defence spending completely to prioritise healthcare and education and is one of the happiest, most literate countries on the planet. Surely that's more in line with what Corbyn is proposing than the USSR is/was?

 

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