[tommytwotone]

Deal rejected >> extend article 50 >> second referendum >> stay in Europe >> general election >> return to old school socialism >> get on with living in France without having to worry that I might have to hide in the woods >> fuck politics off and go climbing.

That's my plan B comrades.

I think it's more likely that with the shambles of an "opposition" that Magic Grandpa is putting together that we get

Deal rejected >> extend article 50 >> May resigns >> Boris / JRM Tory Party leader >>  general election  ]>> Tory majority win >> all sorts of nasty shit

[Will Hunt]

Will, Labour have said they’ll issue MoNC May’s deal is voted down, if that passed then we have a GE. DUP are already voting against Conservatives currently and I can see May getting the concessions they need to get them back on side.

Most likely amendment at the mo will be extending A50 as this obviously need me to happen to allow a second ref or time for a new deal. The guy who wrote the A50 stuff was on the radio yesterday saying that you couldn’t just stop it and restart it again, as that would go against clauses in there for extension. Ireland have said they won’t stand against an extension, and I couldn’t see any other country voting against it now they see which way the tide is going.

Less clear after that, Labour still seem to think they can get a better deal by changing red lines, also growing support for second ref across the house.

So if Labour table a MoNC, they'll get their support, and they'll get PC, the Greens, LDs, and the SNP. I doubt they'd get any significant number of Tory rebels; they might get the DUP. The Tory and DUP MPs might not like what the government is doing, but to vote for a GE is to help Labour strike a huge political blow against the government. The DUP and Conservatives are close bedfellows, and even if they disagree on Brexit, they are very much united in how much they would hate to see a Corbyn government. I suspect many of them would view that prospect as more dangerous than a No Deal Brexit. We've already seen Rees-Mogg support May when the motion was brought by Labour, despite organising his own MoNC a little time earlier.

If they do get a GE (unlikely I think, but you never know), what does that achieve? It doesn't stop the A50 countdown, and I don't think it's possible now to get a new government formed and legislating in time for the March deadline. If anything it might just paralyse parliament while A50 rolls past. From the Tory side, TM has said that she won't fight another GE, so if she lost the MoNC she would resign immediately. Then a quick Tory leadership contest and a fresh face with a fresh plan to appeal to the public. Either way, I can't see much breaking of a deadlock in parliamentary arithmetic.

[teestub]

MoNC is against the government, not the party, so it could be used to oust May by Tories MPs who think they have a chance of forming a govt with support of DUP under a new agreement based around guarantees on NI. They'd have 2 weeks to try and form a govt with enough votes before a GE is called. As such this is not essentially handing a win to Labour by any stretch. As T³ alluded to above, despite the horrible mess being made by the Conservaties, Labour have made little ground in the polls, due mainly I assume to them not actually differentiating themselves from Cons at all.

Obviously if we are going to have a GE it's in the whole House's interest to delay A50 trigger, so that should be an easy vote to pass, and as noted previously it doesn't seem like there'd be any resistance to this from the EU.

I agree with you re: parliamentary arithmetic at the moment, but a deadlock in the House makes a second ref more likely.

[Offwidth]

Will, Labour have said they’ll issue MoNC May’s deal is voted down, if that passed then we have a GE. DUP are already voting against Conservatives currently and I can see May getting the concessions they need to get them back on side.

Most likely amendment at the mo will be extending A50 as this obviously need me to happen to allow a second ref or time for a new deal. The guy who wrote the A50 stuff was on the radio yesterday saying that you couldn’t just stop it and restart it again, as that would go against clauses in there for extension. Ireland have said they won’t stand against an extension, and I couldn’t see any other country voting against it now they see which way the tide is going.

Less clear after that, Labour still seem to think they can get a better deal by changing red lines, also growing support for second ref across the house.

So if Labour table a MoNC, they'll get their support, and they'll get PC, the Greens, LDs, and the SNP. I doubt they'd get any significant number of Tory rebels; they might get the DUP. The Tory and DUP MPs might not like what the government is doing, but to vote for a GE is to help Labour strike a huge political blow against the government. The DUP and Conservatives are close bedfellows, and even if they disagree on Brexit, they are very much united in how much they would hate to see a Corbyn government. I suspect many of them would view that prospect as more dangerous than a No Deal Brexit. We've already seen Rees-Mogg support May when the motion was brought by Labour, despite organising his own MoNC a little time earlier.

If they do get a GE (unlikely I think, but you never know), what does that achieve? It doesn't stop the A50 countdown, and I don't think it's possible now to get a new government formed and legislating in time for the March deadline. If anything it might just paralyse parliament while A50 rolls past. From the Tory side, TM has said that she won't fight another GE, so if she lost the MoNC she would resign immediately. Then a quick Tory leadership contest and a fresh face with a fresh plan to appeal to the public. Either way, I can't see much breaking of a deadlock in parliamentary arithmetic.

What would they achieve? The EU have said they would extend the brexit deadline in the case of a GE or 2nd ref.

[Oldmanmatt]

I actually wonder, if taking the deal, and by extension reducing of our global footprint and influence; might not be better in the long run.
We’re just exhausting our resources, trying to be this global superpower, whilst almost 20% of our population live in “poverty”*.
We are, after all, a piddling island nation, in a damp, windy, corner of the North Atlantic; battling Behemoths. We’d have gone under 80 years ago, if it wasn’t for our bigger cousin, coming over to sort outthe bullies next door.

Maybe we could focus on our own shit for a while?


*Relative poverty, before anyone points out how much worse it could be.

[petejh]

Yeeees Matt... come over to the dark siiiide...


(piddling country that's still the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world by gdp. Something a lot of people I think forget when they're navel gazing thinking we're insignificant. We're not. Yes I know that doesn't translate to quality of life, I'd prefer Norway, Switzerland or Canada's quality of life)

[SamT]

I think the point Matt makes re poverty is that we're

still the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world by gdp.

and thus nobody should be living in poverty, relative or not.

[Fultonius]

I think the point Matt makes re poverty is that we're

still the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world by gdp.

and thus nobody should be living in poverty, relative or not.

The only problem being, conservative economic policy requires there to be an underclass to keep wages low and make people feel replaceable.

I'm sure that can be easily picked apart but hey ho.

Right, 8 weeks out here are my predictions:

1) The deal is voted down
2) She goes away for 3 days and comes back with nothing new, more "assurances"
3) This happens back and forward a bit, with all manners of amendments proposed
4) Clock ticks down to 29 March, no election is called, no 2nd referendum
5) Last minute a voted is tabled for rescinding article 50 (but not, per say, cancelling Brexit) to buy more time.
6) May is ousted for utter ineptitude.
7) A coalition forms with a second referendum on no deal/may's deal/cancel brexit.....(this last one is just my wishful thinking!)

[Teaboy]

I actually wonder, if taking the deal, and by extension reducing of our global footprint and influence; might not be better in the long run.
We’re just exhausting our resources, trying to be this global superpower, whilst almost 20% of our population live in “poverty”*.

If that was the stated aim of any of the main supporters of Brexit you might have a claim but Gavin Williamson has stated that Brexit will allow us to build additional military bases all over the world and those that support it for economic reasons do so because of the teachings of prof Minford (end to manufacturing Jobs in UK) or because of a reduction in red tape (fewer workers rights).

In fact, never mind that, any of the things you describe could be done from within the EU so not sure why you thing Brexit will bring about any sort of mindset change. Russia's straightened circumstances hasn't stopped it trying to exert itself as a still relevant superpower

[Oldmanmatt]

I actually wonder, if taking the deal, and by extension reducing of our global footprint and influence; might not be better in the long run.
We’re just exhausting our resources, trying to be this global superpower, whilst almost 20% of our population live in “poverty”*.

If that was the stated aim of any of the main supporters of Brexit you might have a claim but Gavin Williamson has stated that Brexit will allow us to build additional military bases all over the world and those that support it for economic reasons do so because of the teachings of prof Minford (end to manufacturing Jobs in UK) or because of a reduction in red tape (fewer workers rights).

In fact, never mind that, any of the things you describe could be done from within the EU so not sure why you thing Brexit will bring about any sort of mindset change. Russia's straightened circumstances hasn't stopped it trying to exert itself as a still relevant superpower

I don’t ( think Brexit is necessary or worthwhile, that is).
I’m rather anti, that hasn’t changed.

I think this will diminish us as a nation (might have mentioned that, once or ten times).

First off, I recognise the difference between the thoughtful Brexit supporter and the zealots.

But I have been dismayed by the nationalistic, xenophobic, racist and imperialistic, attitudes of such a large section of the British population.
In total denial of the actuality of history.
I think this was hidden, by societal pressure, until Brexit proclaimed “open season” to so many.

I think the divide between the socially liberal and the populist, ummm, wankers (?), is essentially unbridgeable. Reality and facts do not persuade the wankers, until it bites so hard they cannot ignore it. Mere predictions, based on best evidence, are as useful as your best, saved up all night, morning piss, into the teeth of a force ten gale.

JRM, Boris, Yaxley-Lennon et al, are not going to lead the nation into a glorious future of wealth and prosperity.

My elderly relatives are wrong, to think that this will lead to the resurgence of the Church as a guiding light to the young, good christian values and not so many brown people with funny habits.

If the people in rubber boats, stop crossing the channel, it won’t be because we have “taken back control”, it will be because it’s not worth coming from one third world nation to another...

Military bases all over the world?
Fuck off! We can’t even afford the ones we have here!
(There are, today, fewer ships in the entire RN (of all classes), than there were in a single Frigate squadron on the day I joined in ‘89).

But, the division is real. The country is hopelessly divided. I think that the Remainers are correct, that Euro unity is the best way into the globalist future, that is todays reality.
Unfortunately, perhaps, this needs to be played out, as a very painful, expensive, abject, lesson.

[Offwidth]

I think the point Matt makes re poverty is that we're

still the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world by gdp.

and thus nobody should be living in poverty, relative or not.

The only problem being, conservative economic policy requires there to be an underclass to keep wages low and make people feel replaceable.

I'm sure that can be easily picked apart but hey ho.

Right, 8 weeks out here are my predictions:

1) The deal is voted down
2) She goes away for 3 days and comes back with nothing new, more "assurances"
3) This happens back and forward a bit, with all manners of amendments proposed
4) Clock ticks down to 29 March, no election is called, no 2nd referendum
5) Last minute a voted is tabled for rescinding article 50 (but not, per say, cancelling Brexit) to buy more time.
6) May is ousted for utter ineptitude.
7) A coalition forms with a second referendum on no deal/may's deal/cancel brexit.....(this last one is just my wishful thinking!)

Parliament seem to me to be blocking 'no deal' as a likely option and the day before yesterday voted agaisnt May running down the clock any more. If May loses the vote next week by any sizable margin a new election or a new Referendum (or the unlikely just staying in in shame)  seem the only ways out of this mess. Both of those options WILL delay the Brexit date:  the EU have said so and its very much in their interests.

On point 7 I can't see the electoral commission agreeing anything more than a binary vote. My best current guess is stay in vs Canada+ as they won't stitch up the leave side voters and that looks to me like currently the most popular Leave option in terms of what people said they voted for. Mays brexit doesn't seem to suit anyone other than the trapped government. It's funny that the Foreign Secretary is thinking this might happen more than you ;-) Be optimistic and campaign for that option.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/11/uk-faces-prospect-of-no-brexit-if-may-deal-rejected-says-hunt

[Fultonius]

Such an outcome would be “enormously damaging” for politicians’ relationships with voters and Britain’s global reputation, the foreign secretary said.

Says Hunt.

Am I alone in thinking that this could be a one of the great, positive outcomes of this whole shitshow?

[Will Hunt]

Interesting stuff going on at the moment. Anyone care to speculate on what's next?

I'd hoped that the failed deal would force Corbyn's hand, but it looks like he's sticking to his principle of "let Brexit happen on the Conservative's watch". Won't enter discussions until no deal is off the table? There's no way to avoid no deal other than a cross-parliament consensus which he doesn't seem to want to bring about!

[Teaboy]

I don't like Corbyn but from what I can see there is no attempt at consensus from May. She talked about compromise but has ruled out an extension to Article 50, removing any of her red lines, a second referendum and presumably (as she's not ruling it out) still sticking to the damaging mantra that no deal is better than a bad deal.

[petejh]

I think 'no deal' will be removed from 'the table' at least figuratively next week by the backbencher's amendment allowed into play by the speaker.

Following that, anyone's guess. But there's a full transcript available of the Chancellor and Brexit secretary's conference call to UK heads of business that is well worth a read for some clarity on what's actually happening in the background rather than what much of the media proclaim is happening: https://premium.telegraph.co.uk/newsletter/article4/exclusive-the-governments-conference-call-to-reassure-big-business-the-full-transcript/?WT.mc_id=e_DM924391&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg_2019_01_17&utm_campaign=DM924391


My guess is something resembling the May deal will emerge out the other side of the most difficult birth in history. With significant loss of tory blood, and I hope the death of Corbyn's career.

Personally thought the May deal was a good compromise. The letter from the EU last Monday in response to May's letter  is worth a read. I thought the tone was reassuring and it didn't strike me that we would ever use the backstop.

I can't overstate my contempt for the Labour position so far.More so than my contempt for the ERG who run a close second. Labour in this process stand for nothing except obstruction and political opportunism. Even at the tories weakest most vulnerable moment in decades, labour are unable to capitalise politically or have any clear plan that the public can understand. That shows how profoundly pathetic and lacking pragmatic ideas labour currently are as a party. I can only imagine individual lab MPs will move towards something, with or without Corbyn's approval.
My money is on a bespoke version of a Customs Union that compromises on allowing limited free trade outside the EU.

[abarro81]

I have no clue what will happen, but agree that Corbyn seems pretty useless and pathetic right now

[tc]

A lifelong Eurosceptic in charge of a largely Remain inclined party in the red corner, a mendacious old witch cackling away to herself and repeating "Brexit means Brexit!" and "The will of the people! in the blue corner. 
Fuck off the pair of you. I'm going climbing.

[tomtom]

Whilst it’s easy to think - and is probably true - that both major parties are doing this for solely political problems, both parties are split about brexit or no brexit. For sure there are less ardent separatists in Labour - but a large portion of labour seats voted leave and their MPs have to both respect this and consider what going against it would mean for their re-election prospects. So whether or not politicians from both parties want to leave or remain - their seats are split as well....

Compounding the present logjam is a very stubborn PM who seems to seek no council on her strategy, and a left wing Labour leader who is loathed by the tories (and unifies then in that respect) as well as having a hatred of the Tories himself.

Operating behind all this are vote leave et al (who seem to have become far less organised and more dissident) and the People’s Vote campaign who are (I think) very carefully gaming what is going on here.

I think Corbin has played this wrong. He could have gone to talks - with the PM (which would have driven sticks into the eyes of many tories!) but then made it clear that the only way things could change (for the EU or anything else) would be for May to drop some of her red lines (which are why we have the boxed in bodge of a deal at the moment) and make it not some ‘Labour denand’ But that it’s nust what HAS to change to move things on.

I hope moderate members of both Parties work this through behind both leaders backs and we end up with some consensus- but I suspect Corbin and May will manage to keep a lid on lots of it.

It’s also interesting reading the NYT coverage of this - all in Corbyns hands they say....

[Oldmanmatt]

Corbyn is not merely loathed by Tories; he is detested by working class individuals, who have bought into the “laying wreaths at memorials to terrorists” type crap and consider him a traitor.
I’m a member of several vetrans forums/groups and the vitriol levelled against him is stunning.
I have no time for him, whatsoever, however, I don’t believe him to be a traitor or even close. I do think he’s a silly and ineffectual, ideologe; with a tenuous grip on reality.

[andy popp]

I can't overstate my contempt for the Labour position so far.

I don't pretend to understand Labour's position and as far as I can tell Corbyn has been weak and undecided. But Brexit belongs to the Tories and the Tories alone. David Cameron called a referendum purely to try and end an internal civil war and to protect his right flank from UKIP. He then spearheaded a lacklustre and complacent remain campaign and promptly fucked off when he lost, refusing to accept any responsibility (ditto other senior Tories). Since then May has been mercilessly cowed by the ERG. This is the Tories to own.

[petejh]

You should be a labour MP Andy. With an attitude like that you'd fit in well with the self-serving attitudes at large in westminister. You're entirely wrong that Brexit is the tories to own. A huge number of people across all party allegiances voted to leave the EU. Making out that it's a tory issue is disingenuous, and usefully shields you from any responsibility for  turning the other cheek and accepting your personally held views dind't prevail in a fair vote and putting aside lab/con binary thinking for the sake of making the best out of a situation you'd prefer not to find yourself in. Your attitude reeks to me of self-righteousness.

[andy popp]

Fair enough, though I have certainly always accepted the outcome of the vote. And I do think Labour could and should have shown far more initiative and decision and take no delight in how things stand now. I also know voters of all persuasions voted leave - but I wasn't talking about voters at all. But if we're sharing blame around (and I think we should be, not for the decisions of voters, but for the actions of politicians) then the greater part of it goes to the Tory party and its leadership.

[teestub]

Should MPs still be making decisions based on how people voted however long ago, now that the sort of deal available has become more crystallised, along with the erm... ‘alternative facts’ largely relied on by the leave side (not to mention illegal activities)?

[petejh]

Fair enough, though I have certainly always accepted the outcome of the vote. And I do think Labour could and should have shown far more initiative and decision and take no delight in how things stand now. I also know voters of all persuasions voted leave - but I wasn't talking about voters at all. But if we're sharing blame around (and I think we should be, not for the decisions of voters, but for the actions of politicians) then the greater part of it goes to the Tory party and its leadership.

Well I agree the larger share of responsibility for the referendum lies with the tories - they were in power and asked the question. It isn't churlish however to point out that Labour have rarely *been* in power. If they had been then eventually they would have come up against this *British* issue just as the tories did. Curse of having the power.
The question asked was always lurking in the minds of a large proportion of the UK population. It isn't a party issue, that's the crux of it and the crux of why the deal isn't getting through - because MPs are treating a national cross-party issue as a personal political cause. The ERG are guilty too but they're at least somewhat transparent in their opposition to the proposed deal.
Labour's approach is so at odds with the crux of the issue. It's a national issue, not a party political one and the best outcomes are possible when politicians can accept some issues are greater than political rivalry.. The way labour are acting makes me wonder if Corbyn - and his master, McDonnell -  would play party politics with absolutely any issue of national importance just to obstruct on ideological grounds.

[petejh]

Should MPs still be making decisions based on how people voted however long ago, now that the sort of deal available has become more crystallised, along with the erm... ‘alternative facts’ largely relied on by the leave side (not to mention illegal activities)?

I say yes. You probably say no. 'Lets call the whole thing off'