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EU Referendum (Read 279482 times)

Franco

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#1550 Re: EU Referendum
October 23, 2019, 08:47:12 am
The decision  by Johnson to send a photocopy is frankly fucking childish.  It's like hes wearing his school uniform and leaving the short untucked to rebel. Whatever your view on extension, delay or whatever this is one of the most unstatesmanlike actions I've ever seen from a supposedly senior politician.

Yes. Agree.

But like a 5 year old having a tantrum it’s best ignored. As Europe have done and are moving on the extension request. Nice OP in the guardian explaining how the side note is worthless and even if it’s not signed that doesn’t matter.


What really riles me is the incessant vox pops and pundit viewpoints on the BBC, Sky etx.. saying everyone wants this deal done. Bollox. Total bollox.

Polling does actually suggest there is public support for this deal (among those who say they understand it). Unfortunately more than a third of people asked still say they don't understand the deal, which kind of tells you everything you need to know about the validity of the original referendum!

Also, I'd wager the actual number of people who have even a vague understanding of the deal is a lot less than two thirds...

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#1551 Re: EU Referendum
October 23, 2019, 09:39:34 am
The decision  by Johnson to send a photocopy is frankly fucking childish.  It's like hes wearing his school uniform and leaving the short untucked to rebel. Whatever your view on extension, delay or whatever this is one of the most unstatesmanlike actions I've ever seen from a supposedly senior politician.

Yes. Agree.

But like a 5 year old having a tantrum it’s best ignored. As Europe have done and are moving on the extension request. Nice OP in the guardian explaining how the side note is worthless and even if it’s not signed that doesn’t matter.


What really riles me is the incessant vox pops and pundit viewpoints on the BBC, Sky etx.. saying everyone wants this deal done. Bollox. Total bollox.

Polling does actually suggest there is public support for this deal (among those who say they understand it). Unfortunately more than a third of people asked still say they don't understand the deal, which kind of tells you everything you need to know about the validity of the original referendum!

Also, I'd wager the actual number of people who have even a vague understanding of the deal is a lot less than two thirds...

Agreed.  Not necessarily because they lack the capacity  but ultimately the motivation,  its ultimately a tedious legal document.  I'm not pretending I understand it in great depth. 
Currently the most depressing angle is Johnson's refrain of getting it done. It will go on for years,  perhaps decades whatever happens. 

I thought this was an excellent piece
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-dups-answer-is-always-the-same-no-7vp6dh3rq?shareToken=f1012f527087a59a4fcb2e75fcfe3850

teestub

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#1552 Re: EU Referendum
October 23, 2019, 07:14:21 pm
Considering MPs who’s job it is to scrutinise these things were still finding out new thing about it yesterday (inc customs papers for goods  to cross Irish Sea), I'd think it was incredibly unlikely that 2/3 of the general population understood the deal.

tomtom

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#1553 Re: EU Referendum
October 23, 2019, 08:54:40 pm
Have you tried to read it? It’s truly dense...

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#1554 Re: EU Referendum
October 23, 2019, 08:59:03 pm
nope, that's what I pay my elected official for (current NI Secretary getting an earful today)!

Franco

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#1555 Re: EU Referendum
October 24, 2019, 08:08:24 am
Considering MPs who’s job it is to scrutinise these things were still finding out new thing about it yesterday (inc customs papers for goods  to cross Irish Sea), I'd think it was incredibly unlikely that 2/3 of the general population understood the deal.

Agreed. It also even makes the idea of a public vote scary.

tomtom

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#1556 Re: EU Referendum
October 24, 2019, 09:25:18 am
nope, that's what I pay my elected official for (current NI Secretary getting an earful today)!

I’d download it and just skim - even just to get a flavour for how it’s written....

I suspect even Ru might wrinkle his brow whilst wading through it...

fried

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#1557 Re: EU Referendum
October 24, 2019, 05:04:27 pm
British journalists have become part of Johnson’s fake news machine | openDemocracy

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/british-journalists-have-become-part-of-johnsons-fake-news-machine/

Good read from ex-Telegraph journo.

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#1558 Re: EU Referendum
October 24, 2019, 05:18:21 pm
And the Conservatives have started spreading false information about “parliament passing the deal” on Facebook and Twitter. https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-deal-not-passed-parliament/
Probably just the start of the campaign of dodgy targetted ads etc as we go into the election

TobyD

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#1559 Re: EU Referendum
October 27, 2019, 10:18:04 am
And the Conservatives have started spreading false information about “parliament passing the deal” on Facebook and Twitter. https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-deal-not-passed-parliament/
Probably just the start of the campaign of dodgy targetted ads etc as we go into the election

On a similar note,  the government has repeatedly declined to legislate against political misinformation on social media,  Nick Cohen suggests,  as they wish to prolong their own ability to do so: Trust is becoming the principal casualty of Britain’s raging political war

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/27/trust-becoming-principal-casualty-of-britains-raging-political-war?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

TobyD

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#1560 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 01:13:08 pm
Looking like there will almost certainly be an election in the second week of December then. I'm really not sure who this really benefits, actually I don't know if anyone else does either, but the details in the Times report about leave.eu releasing a tactical voting app to 'crush the remainers' are deeply worrying.

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#1561 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 01:38:19 pm
Tories will walk it but with 30 of their most moderate and/or Remain MPs replaced by ERG loons.

Fucking depressing on every level

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#1562 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 01:53:24 pm
I don't think I've ever been so depressed about an election campaign. We're all completely fucked.

Labour had no choice but to support it after the other opposition parties pulled out. I can't help but feel let down by the opposition parties who have backed this instead of throwing their collective weight behind a second referendum. I'm highly sceptical about whether Remain would win a new referendum, but a general election can't hope to answer the question of what does the public want to do about Brexit.

The best we can hope for is another hung parliament/minority Conservative government and further paralysis about what to do next.


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#1564 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 02:09:47 pm
Tories will walk it but with 30 of their most moderate and/or Remain MPs replaced by ERG loons.

Fucking depressing on every level

Yep.

Did anyone read that Polly Toynbee article?
She, I think rightly, imagined that the Tories winning (with a clear majority) would be the best outcome.
Brexit is unavoidable.
If it’s a disaster, or even just makes us all poorer and diminished on the world stage, the Tories own it. All of it.
If it goes wrong, people will turn on them.

If it’s a run away success and we all benefit from our new sovereignty, or even if it’s neutral for the majority of people, it won’t matter.


My guess, is the Tories should be very, very careful what they wish for. Demographically, they are on shaky ground and it seems highly unlikely that would change, with even the slightest negative impacts from Brexit. Another five years of Tory rule, who would they blame? An impending global recession? The end of the domination of the Boomers? Boris’s scandals catching up with him? Climate change bearing down on us? They really seem to be backed into a corner, even if they can’t see it themselves.

A far worse scenario, would be another hung parliament.

Reality will out and there will be nowhere to hide and nobody else to blame.

SA Chris

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#1565 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 02:14:49 pm

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-commemorative-leaving-coins-to-be-destroyed-after-delay-11847958

 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:  :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall:  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

If you could get your hands on a couple of those they will be worth a fortune in a few years time. Security Guards at Royal Mint must be tempted.

Will Hunt

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#1566 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 02:22:00 pm
If it goes wrong, people will turn on them.

Yes, that's certainly worked so far...

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#1567 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 02:34:14 pm
I think this deserves a new thread....

Oldmanmatt

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#1568 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 03:59:07 pm
If it goes wrong, people will turn on them.

Yes, that's certainly worked so far...

The Tories greatest asset is Corbyn, but even the Teflon OAP couldn’t survive a crushing GE defeat, surely? Could he?

So, Labour enter the new parliament under a new leader, where there is much less ambiguity.

Anyway, BJ is about to pull the GE, because the likelihood of his winning would be hugely diminished if the 16+/EU citizen amendments go through (or might go through) and they’re looking like they have strong support.
It really is too surreal now. 

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#1569 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 10:42:02 pm
I can't help but feel let down by the opposition parties who have backed this instead of throwing their collective weight behind a second referendum.

There are nowhere near enough MP's in the current parliament who will vote for a second referendum, that has always been the case. Even if all the opposition parties whipped for it then once you knock off the handful of labour loons who'd refuse (Hoey et al) its still not enough without a majority of (ex-) tory independents and the DUP. That majority is not there, nor is it ever likely to be. There is also the problem of how to actually get the process? The government are not going to move a motion for a 2nd ref, ever. The opposition could do an SO24 again (same process as Benn Bill) which would make it law in theory, but the government would still have to implement it. They would frustrate that process. The politics of the opposition being seen to force a 2nd ref without a mandate from a GE would also not be the PR victory with the entire nation that its supporters would like, I would suggest. And all this is before you get to the nitty gritty e.g. the question? Franchise? Simple / super-majority? Legally binding / advisory? Etc. 2nd ref in this parliament was always pie in the sky.

Quote
I'm highly sceptical about whether Remain would win a new referendum, but a general election can't hope to answer the question of what does the public want to do about Brexit.

I agree that a GE is a less good measure of the public mood on Brexit, but given that a 2nd ref won't come out of this parliament, what other option is there? In some ways if we make the assumption that people only voted on Brexit (obvs they won't) then in a way it might be a better way of deciding Brexit, given that there are actually 3 end states:

No deal - Brexit party definitely. (Maybe tories depending on which of the warring factions wins)
A deal - Hard: Tories, Soft: Labour (depending on 2nd ref)
Revoke & remain: LD's, SNP, Labour (depending on 2nd ref)

Choose your majority / coalition to suit.

Quote
The best we can hope for is another hung parliament/minority Conservative government and further paralysis about what to do next.

If you want a 2nd ref, then the best you can hope for is a Labour majority non? I know that most of the regular posters on this thread think Corbyn is a born loser, but all you have to do is hold your nose once, give him this one GE win, then he can get his own Brexit deal and lose the 2nd ref to remain. Job done.


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#1570 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 11:01:00 pm
There is a lot to like in Labour policies, the real difficulty for me is the antisemitism which is rife in some parts of the party, running all the way to the top. And the unelectable leadership, but the antisemitism is a line in the sand for me.

Very disappointed in the LibDem position. Boris will increasingly struggle the more time passes, with his get Brexit done shtick manifestly failing amidst a plethora of grim headlines from the NHS in winter crisis. Can only see sense in LibDem position if their real objective is to target Labour, not Tory seats, and to hell with the country and their remain evangelism. Maybe it was only ever an insincere attempt to peel off Labour voters anyway.

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#1571 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 11:10:18 pm

If you want a 2nd ref, then the best you can hope for is a Labour majority non? I know that most of the regular posters on this thread think Corbyn is a born loser, but all you have to do is hold your nose once, give him this one GE win, then he can get his own Brexit deal and lose the 2nd ref to remain. Job done.

I don't disagree with you, I do think Corbyn is incapable, but im increasingly of the opinion that I'd rather that with some of the more sensible and competent Labour front bench team than Johnson, and most of all Dominic Cummings. I'd like nothing better than to see Johnson get absolutely trounced, sadly I think that's even less likely than Trump stopping using Twitter or Putin actually turning out to be a lovely chap after all

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#1572 Re: EU Referendum
October 29, 2019, 11:52:58 pm
I don't get this pessimism. Some serious pundits (like John Curtice) are predicting 100+ seats for neither of the main parties. Hence, I think it's very likely both the main parties will struggle to get a working majority. The tories will likely be all, but wiped out in Scotland and likely lose tens of seats to the Lib Dems in the south and south west and the tories will rely on winning tens of midland and northern seats with popular moderate Labour MPs with 5%+ majorities, even if the Brexit party do very badly; if Brexit do well the tories are looking at an equivalent to a food bit over 10% swings, so more than the polls indicate now and we know how well advance polls worked for May.  Brexit wasn't delivered ( despite no ifs no buts promises), the country is in a mess due to austerity and the cabinet are mainly far right and accident prone with skeletons. In contrast Labour do campaign well and still have a huge and young membership.  If Boris fails to get a majority he and his hard brexit are toast, as there are no likely partners for his minority tory government.

Encourage people to register and get the progressive vote out, and try and pusuade people to consider voting tactically in the marginals.

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#1573 Re: EU Referendum
October 30, 2019, 08:42:40 am
I don't get this pessimism.

Obviously you’ve not been following politics for the last 3 years  :lol:

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#1574 Re: EU Referendum
October 30, 2019, 11:35:39 am
Well from my perspective as a remainer and a progressive we had a brexit vote and a tory government that started with a sizable majority. May then called an election in 2017 that everyone said they couldn't fail to gain seats (but I was sceptical) and lo and behold they became a minority government and squabbled so much they changed leader to a liar and a clown and failed to get brexit done despite all this '31/10, no ifs and no buts' .. If people believe in a progressive future, hold their nerve and vote we will probably have a minority Labour government saved from itself by having to work in partnership with other progressive parties. Even Remain is still possible... when I heard the bnexit vote news after landing in Heathrow, those years ago, I couldnt have predicted hope would still here approching xmas 2019.

This wasn't surprising to me:



Then we have this:

https://www.ft.com/content/bb027040-fa65-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229

 

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