[nik at work]

Can you guys sort this out please? I'm planning on moving back to the UK early next year...

[tomtom]

Can you guys sort this out please? I'm planning on moving back to the UK early next year...

One tax haven to another? 😂

[nai]

I've always assumed going through with Brexit would destroy the conservative party and make them unelectable for decades but the talk of a November election made me wonder whether their plan is to leave with no deal then be happy to lose the subsequent election leaving an uneasy coalition to deal with the mess. Then spend the next five years of what will be an impossible task reassuring the population that honouring the referendum result was the democratically correct thing to do and would have done things better had they been given the chance, then retake power with the coalition parties having done all the hard work that's yet to pay dividends actually coming out of it worse and leaving them unlectable for decades.

[monkoffunk]

Actually, to clarify, I call this an escalation.

I think we should be very worried.

A few months ago I was driving back from the crag and got into a sort of Brexit argument with a born and bred English/British remainer. I have joint British and Irish nationality, my mother is from the Republic and my wife’s parents are northern Irish, with my mother-in-law growing up during the height of the troubles.

We had pretty different takes on the problem with the future border. She felt maintaining the United Kingdom needed to take priority over avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland. I would rather see the United Kingdom break apart than see a hard border. I have no desire for such and outcome but I don’t see it as worth anyone’s life when it’s a self generated disaster.

I think the main difference between us was just how serious we took the issue. I don’t think people of my generation in England quite understand just how disastrous this could be. The feeling of being an oppressed people, for a few, is just under the surface, and I think those escalations could very easily just be the beginning. Along with the fruit and petrol shortages and other loss of comforts and economic strife, sectarian violence and death is unfortunately a huge worry for me, and I don’t think it’s being talked about.

Does this not assume that, in the event of the UK breaking up, the loyalist side wouldn't carry out acts of violence? Wouldn't any divergance from the status quo result in increased unrest?

Well yeah it’s possible things are screwed whatever the outcome here, but I’d imagine physical border posts would be such an obvious symbol and soft target that they would be bound to be attacked. What’s the alternative in a no deal Brexit? EU can’t compromise integrity of single market.

[Oldmanmatt]

Bizarrely (to me) the Tories are a shoe in to win the next election. Large lead in all the polls.

The opposition vote is hopelessly split and huge numbers would do anything to avoid a Corbyn government.
A Lib/Lab coalition might pull it off, but not with Corbyn leading it.

He really is a toxic brand, if he’s unable to effectively oppose a Bojo clownathon.

[Will Hunt]

On the subject of our Dear Leader (of the opposition). John McDonnell said on the news last night that they'd been contemplating the possibility of prorogation for much of the summer. They've now got something like 5 days to legislate against No Deal. Why is draft legislation not already prepared for such an eventuality?! If it isn't already then it seems like a hopeless exercise to try and cobble something together at such short notice and get it through both houses next week.

[Oldmanmatt]

Because Corbyn wants out. Much (most?) of his membership don’t.
(The EU is a huge obstacle to his “State run” and “Nationalisation” ambitions).

So, easier to let the Tories swallow the shit, then (in his “stuck in the 1970’s” head, at least) ride in to save the proletariat from the evil overlords, brandishing a shiny new red book.

(Dora turns to camera: “Can you say Anachronistic “? .... (pause for audience to repeat word)).

[tomtom]

Bizarrely (to me) the Tories are a shoe in to win the next election. Large lead in all the polls.

They have the largest slice of the national vote - but IIRC if you break it down to seats they're in shit. 20+ 'safe' Tory seats in the SE and home counties could easily go to LibDems also now 12 in Scotland.. they don't have a majority without the DUP...

Might pull a couple of Labour seats back... but will disgruntled brexit labour voters vote tory or brexit party?

[Will Hunt]

Because Corbyn wants out. Much (most?) of his membership don’t.
(The EU is a huge obstacle to his “State run” and “Nationalisation” ambitions).

So, easier to let the Tories swallow the shit, then (in his “stuck in the 1970’s” head, at least) ride in to save the proletariat from the evil overlords, brandishing a shiny new red book.

(Dora turns to camera: “Can you say Anachronistic “? .... (pause for audience to repeat word)).

All nice stuff, Matt, but it doesn't explain what Keir and Co have been up to.

[Oldmanmatt]

Because Corbyn wants out. Much (most?) of his membership don’t.
(The EU is a huge obstacle to his “State run” and “Nationalisation” ambitions).

So, easier to let the Tories swallow the shit, then (in his “stuck in the 1970’s” head, at least) ride in to save the proletariat from the evil overlords, brandishing a shiny new red book.

(Dora turns to camera: “Can you say Anachronistic “? .... (pause for audience to repeat word)).

All nice stuff, Matt, but it doesn't explain what Keir and Co have been up to.

It’s not intended to.

Corbyn is the toxic ingredient.
Labour have achieved electoral success, in the past, I would posit, through appearing to represent the “ordinary citizen”. Even, perhaps, a compassionate vibe.
They occupied the political hinterlands during their late ‘70s and ‘80s deep, dark, red period. Blair et al, poured a good dose of white paint and thinners into that mix and achieved a rather rosy pink.
I’m loathe to admit it, but it worked. I can’t logically blame them for the global crash (plenty of other things, but not that).

Corbyn, rightly or wrongly, is perceived as intent on dragging the party back to that era and a large number of people (most, I would think) see that as a very, very, bad thing. His apparent lack of leadership, has compounded that view in many (including me).

He had an open goal, since 2016, and has not convinced or persuaded anyone outside his cabal of Corbynistas.
NOT EVEN WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY!

[SA Chris]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49509275

Even Ruth Davidson has had enough. Can't see Tories retaining any seats up here..

[TobyD]

you say Anachronistic “? .... (pause for audience to repeat word)).

Corbyn is the toxic ingredient.
Labour have achieved electoral success, in the past, I would posit, through appearing to represent the “ordinary citizen”. Even, perhaps, a compassionate vibe.
They occupied the political hinterlands during their late ‘70s and ‘80s deep, dark, red period. Blair et al, poured a good dose of white paint and thinners into that mix and achieved a rather rosy pink.
I’m loathe to admit it, but it worked. I can’t logically blame them for the global crash (plenty of other things, but not that).

Corbyn, rightly or wrongly, is perceived as intent on dragging the party back to that era and a large number of people (most, I would think) see that as a very, very, bad thing. His apparent lack of leadership, has compounded that view in many (including me).

He had an open goal, since 2016, and has not convinced or persuaded anyone outside his cabal of Corbynistas.
NOT EVEN WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY!
[/quote]

I largely agree with you Matt. Labour used to be a party who I'd have been inclined to vote for. Labour is currently a party I'm as likely to vote for as the Brexit party, which is to say, not unless I'd been forcibly lobotomized first. I can't believe Corbyn is convincing anyone with an ounce of sense, anymore than Johnson is in claiming prorogation isn't anything to do with preventing Parliament from questioning anything he wants to do.

[spidermonkey09]

 Labour is currently a party I'm as likely to vote for as the Brexit party, which is to say, not unless I'd been forcibly lobotomized first. I can't believe Corbyn is convincing anyone with an ounce of sense

This is probably my own bias emerging, but I find the above hard to fathom from anyone with an ounce of sense, especially if they're a remainer. There is a difference between being convinced by Corbyn (which I'm not either) and honestly thinking that a Labour government is as harmful as no deal Brexit. Even senior Tories have acknowledged that even from their own jaundiced perspective, a short lived Corbyn government would be 'less harmful.' Its about the lesser evil at this stage surely?

[Nutty]

I largely agree with you Matt. Labour used to be a party who I'd have been inclined to vote for. Labour is currently a party I'm as likely to vote for as the Brexit party, which is to say, not unless I'd been forcibly lobotomized first.

I'd wouldn't go as far as that Toby. I'm no Corbyn fan but I'd never vote Brexit Party, and under FPTP I arguably should vote tactically for Labour in my constituency (and hate myself for it) as anything else would just be increasing the Conservative winning margin.

[seankenny]

their late ‘70s and ‘80s deep, dark, red period.

I agree with nearly everything you've written here, and hate to be pedantic, but (I'm about to be pedantic) by the general standards of the time throughout the western world, Labour in the late 70s was not far left. In the late 1970s Healey embarked on a programme to reduce borrowing and public expenditure, and to control the money supply.

Callaghan told the Labour Party conference: “We used to think you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour, that option no longer exists.”

And of course the Winter of Discontent occured because the government were trying to control inflation through pay restraint, which the unions hated. As I understand it proposed plans by Labour to reduce the power of the unions would have prevented the Winter of Discontent, but they were scuppered by the Labour left. So clearly Benn et al were influential, but I don't see the Labour government as being far left. Naturally the early 80s was a different matter, but I'd suggest that modern Labour has been more thoroughly captured by the far left than the party was then.

I'm sure Andy has a more informed and nuanced view...

[Yossarian]

I think Jeremy Corbyn is afforded far too much kudos for influencing the direction of Labour. He's an enthusiastic oldschool leftwinger who, if left to his own devices would spend the rest of his career shouting at crowds and meeting with his revolutionary chums from around the world. The problem is that he allows himself to be beholden to a group of advisors - Seamus Milne, Karie Murphy, Len McCluskey - who have a tight grip over both him and the party structure, and who are all highly committed to what until quite recently would've been been considered an extremist outlook. I'm impressed that people like Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper have spent the last couple of years trying to work with that sort of cabal rather than sit on the back benches, but they both must put their heads in their hands every time they get home at night..

Johnson is a slightly less passive partner in his relationship with his advisors, but it's pretty obvious that he's happy to follow the line dictated by Dominic Cummings, Nikki da Costa, etc. The situation is obviously bleak, but I have a grudging respect for how they've managed to smash their way to this point. Cummings is like a political Guderian...

[seankenny]

I think Jeremy Corbyn is afforded far too much kudos for influencing the direction of Labour. He's an enthusiastic oldschool leftwinger who, if left to his own devices would spend the rest of his career shouting at crowds and meeting with his revolutionary chums from around the world. The problem is that he allows himself to be beholden to a group of advisors - Seamus Milne, Karie Murphy, Len McCluskey - who have a tight grip over both him and the party structure, and who are all highly committed to what until quite recently would've been been considered an extremist outlook.

Ahh, the old "the king is a good man, surrounded by dangerous advisors" line. I'm fairly sure it's nonsense - Corbyn shares almost exactly the same worldview as Milne, Murray, etc, and is equally committed to it, it's just they are smarter and more sophisticated. He's done all he can to push Labour in a far left direction, and played his role very well. He could quite easily hand over the succession to an acolyte or fellow traveller and spend his days as you suggest, but of course, he doesn't.

Johnson is a slightly less passive partner in his relationship with his advisors, but it's pretty obvious that he's happy to follow the line dictated by Dominic Cummings, Nikki da Costa, etc. The situation is obviously bleak, but I have a grudging respect for how they've managed to smash their way to this point. Cummings is like a political Guderian...

Two decades of visiting places where governments are good at smashing things up and poor at building them leaves me with nothing but a deep and visceral disgust for such people. It's easy to break things, really fucking easy. Dressing up it up with pseudo-intellectual wank like Cummings doesn't make it any better. Such people are dangerous, and worthy of no respect whatsoever.

[Yossarian]

Ahh, the old "the king is a good man, surrounded by dangerous advisors" line. I'm fairly sure it's nonsense - Corbyn shares almost exactly the same worldview as Milne, Murray, etc, and is equally committed to it, it's just they are smarter and more sophisticated. He's done all he can to push Labour in a far left direction, and played his role very well. He could quite easily hand over the succession to an acolyte or fellow traveller and spend his days as you suggest, but of course, he doesn't.

That’s exactly my point. I don’t doubt he believes in the rhetoric. But he spent 30 years as an undistinguished reactionary backbencher. He’s not exactly bursting with intellectual horsepower or leadership prowess. He’s disorganised and petulant. However, I think that his “advisors” are, as you say, smarter and more sophisticated and ruthless. I also think it’s quite likely that he / they will try to engineer his successor before too long. Rebecca Long Bailey for instance, who I think would offer a pretty seamless ideological transition whilst stripping out much of Corbyn’s accumulated baggage...

[petejh]

I would (genuinely) like to think what any of the leavers who’ve posted on here think of BJ and the whole prorogue situation...

TT, I would genuinely like to answer you but it just isn't worth the hassle of then feeling compelled to read through the countless numbers of people on UKB who want to remain disagreeing with me and telling me why they think I'm wrong. I'd much rather discuss it with you in a friendly manner over a pint and pleasantly agree to disagree (probably) while having respect for and interest in your point of view.

[tomtom]

I would (genuinely) like to think what any of the leavers who’ve posted on here think of BJ and the whole prorogue situation...

TT, I would genuinely like to answer you but it just isn't worth the hassle of then feeling compelled to read through the countless numbers of people on UKB who want to remain disagreeing with me and telling me why they think I'm wrong. I'd much rather discuss it with you in a friendly manner over a pint and pleasantly agree to disagree (probably) while having respect for and interest in your point of view.

Fair enough Pete. I can see that.

[Fultonius]

All those who say labour is now "far left", could you possibly point to some policies and positions that represent this? I'm genuinely interested, as I feel that it's more a case that the general political landscape in the UK as shifted so far right, that Labour seems "far left", when in fact they're not actually that far left of centre.


NB: I do not feel that Corbyn would be a great PM, as he's not a great "leader". I would take him at the drop of hat over Johnson/May etc.

[Paul B]

Fair enough Pete. I can see that.

Shame as after a heated family discussion last night I'd like to read what at least will be a considered opinion.

[tomtom]

Saw your tweets Paul ... :-/

[Oldmanmatt]

Honestly, for me, this has gone well beyond Remain or leave.

Obviously, everyone is aware of my Remain stance and I think my distaste for rampant Socialism is pretty plain too.

This, that which we are now living, is, I fear worse.

Unbridled, unregulated free market, exploitative (thoroughly un-Conservative), cabals seizing control.
If you are in any way disadvantaged or even just unlucky, this is going to be a rough ride for you. It’s not as if there’s very much of a safety net left after the current Tory pogrom on the poor and poorly.

[andy popp]

Unbridled, unregulated free market, exploitative (thoroughly un-Conservative), cabals seizing control.
If you are in any way disadvantaged or even just unlucky, this is going to be a rough ride for you. It’s not as if there’s very much of a safety net left after the current Tory pogrom on the poor and poorly.

I have something that is really baffling me. I have a FB acquaintance (we haven't met in real life but are connected through climbing/writing) who is vehement leave supporter, but from a left wing or so-called Lexit position. In recent days he's absolutely doubled-down, saying he doesn't care what Johnson has to do so long as Brexit takes places on October 31st. I may disagree with it but I can at least understand a right wing, free trade argument for Brexit, but it has been blindingly obvious for a very long time that we were never going to get a "Lexit." Why the ongoing commitment to a pipedream?