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Fracking (Read 64717 times)

petejh

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#200 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 11:41:20 am
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Can we have your views on this please? You don't seem shy about giving us your views on everything else  ;)

This:
Quote
Meanwhile what's probably going to happen is an attempt at a graduated change over, using up the last of the fossil fuel, whilst hopefully developing clean technologies in the background to a level they can be effective in our current economic system which is based on growth. When/if that fails and economic panic ensues (the energy trap: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/10/the-energy-trap/), it might be the signal to move to a different economic system.

is what I think will happen. Whether or not it's I think it's the best outcome doesn't matter.

petejh

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#201 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 11:44:20 am
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Well the alternative to getting everyone to co-operate and reduce carbon emissions is to just let things carry on and get worse...

Unfortunately for us - the climate system has considerable lags in its response to changes in CO2 levels - so our governments and politicans (and many people) will not know to stop - until things are already bad or its too late (ie we push the system beyond a reversible point).

I think if you believe that this will actually happen, in our current economic system, then you may as well also believe in a supernatural benevolent spirit, or unicorns or something.

Stubbs

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#202 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 11:45:05 am
I was more interested in your views of what technologies you thought were worthwhile - that seemed to be what your post was driving at: which ways of reducing our carbon output are worthwhile.

The graduated change is the obvious and somewhat depressing prediction that comes about due to the wealth and influence of people selling hydrocarbons.

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#203 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 11:59:36 am
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Well the alternative to getting everyone to co-operate and reduce carbon emissions is to just let things carry on and get worse...

Unfortunately for us - the climate system has considerable lags in its response to changes in CO2 levels - so our governments and politicans (and many people) will not know to stop - until things are already bad or its too late (ie we push the system beyond a reversible point).

I think if you believe that this will actually happen, in our current economic system, then you may as well also believe in a supernatural benevolent spirit, or unicorns or something.

Well - I'd rather hope that somewhere along the line people will see sense (other governments have tried (and failed) e.g. Australia's now defunct carbon tax).

I try to be optimistic about the future!

Its either that or buy some more tins of beans for the bunker ;)

petejh

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#204 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 12:07:56 pm
In the short-term:
I believe shale gas is sensible if it replaces coal, perhaps entirely, in the overall UK mix - the total resource and rate of extraction is still uncertain.
Limited tidal and wind - I honestly don't think wind is going to look attractive in 20 years after we get a longer-term idea of how much downtime the turbines suffer and we understand the true cost, and where that money could have been invested instead into other tech. I personally think turbines are part a money-making bandwagon/ part useful resource.
Solar PV and water heating on all new housing and retrofit to existing housing. In combination with better insulation, widespread awareness of fuel use through better metering/thermostats.
Domestic waste power plants like the one next to my office in Runcorn.
Carbon storage (perhaps in combination with shale gas operations?)
Emissions scrubbing retrofitted on all exisitng coal-fired power stations (already in place on most?)
Co-gen to supply more waste heat to domestic and commerical premises.

Mid-term:
Nuclear makes sense to me, especially if someone had the courage to try non-military fuels.
An end to importing fossil fuel - a UN or similar enforced ban.
Better storage technology to make intermittent energy sources more viable.
Versions of today's billionaires like Bill Gates etc. getting into the clean energy sector and shaking things up.


Long term:
Pick whatever you want out of your imagination and combine with whichever economic system you believe will exist - space solar PV, Tesla electricity transmission, Nuclear fusion, moon-based power stations could be as carbon-emitting as it's possible to be - who cares!, fuel cells, Dawes vegetable cars...


Economic collapse and slave labour...

« Last Edit: January 16, 2014, 12:13:05 pm by petejh »

Johnny Brown

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#205 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 12:59:15 pm
There seems to a bit of a generation gap I'd posit at around 40/45. The older have seen various nuclear/ acid rain/ ice age doom-mongers come and go, and have learned to ignore them and carry on. The younger pretty much without exception, seem to have realised global anthropogenic climate change is real and more likely than not catastrophic. My possibly vain hope is that in the next ten years the balance of power in world governments will shift to the latter, and clean energy will become a given and not a political football. Of course it might be too late and too slow, or we might have some global event that really panics 'em. But I doubt it. Debate on these matters seems to a be a lot less about science and more about proclaiming your gut instinct.

Falling Down

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#206 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 01:04:02 pm
Tom - BP don't have any shale reserves and have their growth strategy around deepwater offshore in Europe.

Also, the financial analysts were saying the same thing about the US too.  We don't know if the guys who wrote the report have for example, invested billions in an LNG import facility in Essex....

Still, I don't have enough research and my interest is only as a layman.  I suspect though that basic supply and demand does influence pricing. 

Stubbs

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#207 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 01:12:08 pm
Debate on these matters seems to a be a lot less about science and more about proclaiming your gut instinct.

I think the issue with this debate is that it stretches far beyond science and is tied up with people's perceptions (as you say) and government policy.  No government is going to have the minerals to say (for example) 'right we are going all in for micro generation and all new affordable housing will be fitted with PV and we are going to retrofit all council owned properties over the new five years.  Oh by the way this will add 10% to your tax bill but you'll see the returns in cheaper energy.'

abarro81

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#208 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 01:24:32 pm
If anyone's interested, the prices the government guarantees to large scale renewables projects are in the document on this page; https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investing-in-renewable-technologies-cfd-contract-terms-and-strike-priceon page 7. The price for new nuclear seems to be £92.50/MWh according to the bbc, whilst a quick google suggests the wholesale prices are approx £60/MWh on our current grid. I'm unsure about how this ties into other possible government funding approaches for these kinds of projects - whether this is 'it' so to speak, or whether there are many other sources of funding for large projects in addition. Anyone know? Also, does anyone know who funds the storage of waste from nuclear and the decommissioning - is it the company who own the plant or the gov?

tomtom

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#209 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 01:37:27 pm
Barrows, I believe the price includes decommissioning - but is quite a bit above the market rate (ie what the French pay for the same).

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#210 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 01:39:58 pm
If anyone's interested, the prices the government guarantees to large scale renewables projects are in the document on this page; https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investing-in-renewable-technologies-cfd-contract-terms-and-strike-priceon page 7. The price for new nuclear seems to be £92.50/MWh according to the bbc, whilst a quick google suggests the wholesale prices are approx £60/MWh on our current grid. I'm unsure about how this ties into other possible government funding approaches for these kinds of projects - whether this is 'it' so to speak, or whether there are many other sources of funding for large projects in addition. Anyone know? Also, does anyone know who funds the storage of waste from nuclear and the decommissioning - is it the company who own the plant or the gov?

Not sure if that includes the storage/decommissioning costs...but as a reference, the decommissioning of Dounreay is currently costing between £50-70million per annum....

AndyR

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#211 Re: Fracking
January 16, 2014, 02:39:35 pm
Barrows, I believe the price includes decommissioning - but is quite a bit above the market rate (ie what the French pay for the same).
I'm sure I don't need to say this, but this is quite normal in the power generation world - it is very difficult to compare future new-build elec prices to whole sale elec prices being produced from facilities >10 years in age - particularly where the bulk of the elec cost is buried in capex rather than the fuel price (as is the case for nukes).

slackline

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#212 Re: Fracking
January 22, 2014, 09:58:22 am
At some point the unit cost will drop/alternatives will increase and this will become viable/economical...

Chemical process turns any plant matter—even trees—into biofuels

Original : http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1246748

NB - Its a new chemical technique which doesn't require expensive & concentrated acids and alkali's and is renewable as the required chemical is extracted from plants as a by-product of the process.

There's a discussion thread on Reddit which includes contributions from one of the researchers jerljer (lead author on the paper).

psychomansam

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#213 Re: Fracking
January 22, 2014, 11:52:18 am
Debate on these matters seems to a be a lot less about science and more about proclaiming your gut instinct.

I think the issue with this debate is that it stretches far beyond science and is tied up with people's perceptions (as you say) and government policy.  No government is going to have the minerals to say (for example) 'right we are going all in for micro generation and all new affordable housing will be fitted with PV and we are going to retrofit all council owned properties over the new five years.  Oh by the way this will add 10% to your tax bill but you'll see the returns in cheaper energy.'

PV has limited use in the UK since it does sod all for peak demand.
Wind isn't much better either, since it's equally unreliable.
Tidal is perhaps a little better.
Wave has potential.
Geothermal - not in this country.
That doesn't mean they can't have a role to play, but it means that until we make serious improvements in production or storage*, renewable energies can't be the basis of our generation. I'm of the opinion that the lack of national and global investment in renewables is basically criminal. But that's where we're at right now.

Until we can convince our government(s) to invest properly in renewables, we require investment somewhere else. The latest-gen nuclear has a lot of advantages, particularly with reduced waste, but the government is purchasing an old-tech plant instead. To be fair, we'd need a big push on nuclear to make the lastest-gen stuff pay. But then, maybe that's what we need.

In the meantime we'll increasingly be forced to rely on more risky or harmful extraction methods for non-renewables. The global future is currently one of fracking, tar-sands and oil-shale. I hope the dutch built those dams well...

*Or long distance transmission. A relatively very small patch of essentially empty Saharan desert covered in PV could power Europe, no problems. Except for the massive investment cost, the politics, and the geopolitical vulnerability brought about by the possibility of sabotaging the transmission lines!

Sloper

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#214 Re: Fracking
January 30, 2014, 08:30:18 pm
Fracking should be embraced and supported as a good source of energy, jobs, investment and so on.

As for the whingeing watermelon twats blocking the road, nothing a bit of cs spray and water cannon won't sort out.

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#215 Re: Fracking
February 14, 2014, 09:38:04 am
As for the whingeing watermelon twats blocking the road

It's not a road.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2014, 09:45:23 am by dr_botnik »

mrjonathanr

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Sloper

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#217 Re: Fracking
February 12, 2015, 06:49:57 pm
Let's just call it eco-mining and celebrate the benefits it will bring to our rural economies.

I love fracking and nukes.

Stubbs

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#218 Re: Fracking
February 12, 2015, 08:44:35 pm
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Other changes reversed on Monday included residents being notified on an individual basis of shale gas operations in their area, gas leaks other than methane being recorded and a legal requirement for environmental impact assessments at sites.

This is really not good news, EIA's are relatively cheap and will at least make the fracking companies consider the environment in which they are working in a structured way.

I had hoped it had gone quiet on the fracking front due to the fall in fuel prices.

teestub

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tomtom

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#220 Re: Fracking
November 02, 2019, 09:54:49 am
Core blimey!

James Malloch

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#221 Re: Fracking
November 02, 2019, 10:02:04 am
On Radio 6 earlier the news was implying it wasn't a proper ban, only that they won't grant further licences unless further evidence emerges of the benefits.

The cynic in me feels like the timing of this, with an election looming, isn't a coincidence... Though hopefully I'm wrong!

tomtom

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#222 Re: Fracking
November 02, 2019, 10:03:42 am
Anyone would think there was an election coming up! :D

Bradders

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#223 Re: Fracking
November 02, 2019, 12:11:43 pm
On Radio 6 earlier the news was implying it wasn't a proper ban, only that they won't grant further licences unless further evidence emerges of the benefits.

The cynic in me feels like the timing of this, with an election looming, isn't a coincidence... Though hopefully I'm wrong!

Oh I think you're absolutely spot on, very much a carefully timed announcement.

Good news regardless.

I saw that the opposition line was the obvious "it's not a proper ban", which to be fair I don't think it is. That said, surely it's an eminently sensible stance to say it won't happen unless clear evidence emerges that it is safe?

 

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