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EU Referendum (Read 279489 times)

tregiffian

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EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 09:52:32 am
In soccer parlance, our fate will be in our own hands. This will make a nice change.
Moreover, when Italy, Denmark, Greece et al. become problems we shall be spectators not victims. I do worry a little for those of us doing winter sun Euro trips this winter.


Teaboy

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#1 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 10:34:50 am
No more so than it is now! This is the great lie about this whole fiasco. If they had wanted to, the govt could have spent more money on the NHS, they could have limited migration, they could even have cut some benefits to EU migrants. They weren't prevented from getting involved in various military interventions, we have control of our police, judiciary and the armed forces. We will still be subject to rules of supra-national bodies like NATO, the UN etc, when we sign trade agreements with the US we will be making concessions to them just as we do the EU. Something like the ECHR has no effect an virtually everyone in the country and for those UK citizens it does affect for the majority it is a benefit. The only thing the EU interfered in was dull regulatory shit that you probably wouldn't be interested in, or would applaud if it were done by our govt, such as better employment protection and cleaner beaches.
Tell me something that we will have control over that will be changed for the better and will improve your life post Brexit.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 11:06:38 am by Teaboy »

JohnM

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#2 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 10:39:18 am
Quote
Moreover, when Italy, Denmark, Greece et al. become problems we shall be spectators not victims. I do worry a little for those of us doing winter sun Euro trips this winter.

Anything that becomes a problem for Europe becomes a problem for us. Just because we are leaving the EU doesn't mean we are suddenly going to become immune to anything that happens there.

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#3 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 12:44:26 pm
No more so than it is now! This is the great lie about this whole fiasco. If they had wanted to, the govt could have spent more money on the NHS, they could have limited migration, they could even have cut some benefits to EU migrants. They weren't prevented from getting involved in various military interventions, we have control of our police, judiciary and the armed forces. We will still be subject to rules of supra-national bodies like NATO, the UN etc, when we sign trade agreements with the US we will be making concessions to them just as we do the EU. Something like the ECHR has no effect an virtually everyone in the country and for those UK citizens it does affect for the majority it is a benefit. The only thing the EU interfered in was dull regulatory shit that you probably wouldn't be interested in, or would applaud if it were done by our govt, such as better employment protection and cleaner beaches.
Tell me something that we will have control over that will be changed for the better and will improve your life post Brexit.

I could go into how bad it will be for healthcare in this country, and sigh at how all the people it will hit hard are the ones who voted for Brexit....

Flippant comments like the one above about euro winter trips need to either ignore it and say nothing or wake up.

A Jooser

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#4 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 01:23:23 pm
Something like the ECHR has no effect an virtually everyone in the country and for those UK citizens it does affect for the majority it is a benefit...

The European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) have no relation to our membership or non-membership of the EU. We will still remain members of the Council of Europe post-Brexit - something for which I at least have cause to be grateful. I'm often surprised that vociferous champions of the EU know so little about European institutions. But I think you are right in questioning the ECHR's/Council of Europe's efficacy.

I certainly take the point that successive UK governments, of all different parties, have blamed the EU for their own failings. If there be only one benefit to our leaving, I'm sure even the most diehard remainers would agree it is this: no longer can the UK government use our membership of the EU as a scapegoat for its own inability to act. And I think that's the most important aspect to it. A democracy simply cannot function with such a lack of accountability - such obfuscation of responsibility. It must be clear to electors where their laws are made, by whom are they made, and how those law-makers can be thrown out if the electorate don't like what they do.

I don't think it was just the lack of democracy within the EU institutions that was a problem to the skeptics, but also the way in which being a member of the EU eroded our own democracy within the UK. Thus when presented with the option of removing the scapegoat, people chose to remove the scapegoat.

...I was going to tell Rocksteady that my main concern with a second referendum is we'd need a new UKB thread, and no one would want that... one's more than enough! Now I see we have another one... What the hell happened?!

Rocksteady

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#5 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 01:57:32 pm
I've been thinking about all this quite a lot as a result of this thread. A couple of things made me look up logic and reasoning and heuristics (mental shortcuts/rules of thumb that are specious).
Confirmation bias is where your mind instinctively lends more credence to evidence that supports your arguments than evidence that contradicts it.
The 'fallacists fallacy' is a mistake in reasoning whereby you assume that because a supporting argument or piece of evidence is invalid, the conclusion drawn is necessarily invalid.

I've been trying to frame this thread's debate - I think this is how I would summarise:

Economic arguments: Remainers point to lots of economic forecasts by experts that suggest that the UK economy will be worse/much worse off as a result of leaving the UK. Leavers call this 'project fear' and point out that so far the UK economy hasn't been as badly hit as predicted. Above, Pete noted that economic forecasts are proven to be generally unreliable - but noted that he believes that the UK economy will be worse off in the short term as a result of leaving. In the long term it is just as likely to do well as to do badly, and no-one can accurately predict this.
My thoughts are that the weight of evidence tends to support the expert view. Just because they've been wrong in the past doesn't mean they will be wrong this time. But in a sense who knows about the economy? Long term the trend has always gone up. But the same was probably true in many empires of the past that in the end collapsed into chaos.

Governance arguments: Leavers point to the benefits of the UK being in full control of our own destiny, with no laws or policies being foisted on us from the EU. Some argue this will leave us more flexible in the future and able to respond to opportunities or crises in such a way that we will outperform the EU. Also often touted is the unaccountability of EU law and policymakers to UK voters, making them hard to influence or oust for poor performance.
Remainers argue that (a) the UK has in most material ways always been in control of its law and policy despite the EU, and that the EU has been used as a scapegoat by generations of lazy politicians as an excuse for the results of their own failed policies; (b) the world is more complex and interlinked and whatever happens we will be influenced by third parties in order to achieve effective negotiated trade agreements for example; (c) in any event the EU has been a force for good and a useful check and balance on UK government and policy.

Societal/cultural arguments: Free-movement and immigration clearly played a big part in the referendum, with Leavers pointing to the negative effects of uncontrolled immigration. Many Remainers would argue that immigrants from the EU provide us with a net benefit. I find it hard to draw conclusions on this. As a London, some of the negative impact of migration to the UK is very obvious eg. tube even more overcrowded, non-native speakers homeless on the streets and queuing up at foodbanks. But personally I like the idea of being a European citizen and able to work and live easily in a wider geographic area than just the UK. 

Are there any other arguments for/against? On the above I feel that no-one can point to any concrete benefits of leaving, but no-one can prove that it would definitely be worse. It's a roll of the dice that change will improve things. 

teestub

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#6 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 02:07:23 pm

The European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) have no relation to our membership or non-membership of the EU. We will still remain members of the Council of Europe post-Brexit - something for which I at least have cause to be grateful. I'm often surprised that vociferous champions of the EU know so little about European institutions. But I think you are right in questioning the ECHR's/Council of Europe's efficacy.


This is a failry recent development though right? May was keen to leave it but was forced to back down re: reciprocal security arrangements? Your statement makes it look like this was never on the table?

Teaboy

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#7 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 02:33:35 pm

The European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) have no relation to our membership or non-membership of the EU. We will still remain members of the Council of Europe post-Brexit - something for which I at least have cause to be grateful. I'm often surprised that vociferous champions of the EU know so little about European institutions. But I think you are right in questioning the ECHR's/Council of Europe's efficacy.
Its a fair cop, I was sloppy, but I was trying to address the populist reasons that leavers commonly use and, whether ECHR is affected by Brexit or not, it is often cited by leavers as a reasons for leaving. I could just have easily used as an example the claims about Turkey joining the EU or the EU army.

Quote
I certainly take the point that successive UK governments, of all different parties, have blamed the EU for their own failings. If there be only one benefit to our leaving, I'm sure even the most diehard remainers would agree it is this: no longer can the UK government use our membership of the EU as a scapegoat for its own inability to act.
If only that were true, every self-inflicted cock up our govt makes is blamed on the EU (their intransigence, their determination to do one over on us etc.) this will continue for decades.

Quote
And I think that's the most important aspect to it. A democracy simply cannot function with such a lack of accountability - such obfuscation of responsibility. It must be clear to electors where their laws are made, by whom are they made, and how those law-makers can be thrown out if the electorate don't like what they do. I don't think it was just the lack of democracy within the EU institutions that was a problem to the skeptics, but also the way in which being a member of the EU eroded our own democracy within the UK. Thus when presented with the option of removing the scapegoat, people chose to remove the scapegoat.
So the best solution to successive politicians lying to us is to economically hobble ourselves rather than hold them to account? You might say this would never happen and I'm mindful to agree, even if they stop blaming the EU (and I'm mainly talking about the Tories now) they will find another scapegoat, there'll be plenty of immigrants left over to blame, plenty of poor, disabled, single mum's. The nasty blaming of others will be exacerbate, not ended, by this process. Look at where news programs are now turning to fill the void left by UKIP, the Tax Payers Alliance, look how Mogg has set his sights on the over seas aid budget as the next thing that needs fixing ("That's whats making you poor, not low taxes for the rich"

Quote
...I was going to tell Rocksteady that my main concern with a second referendum is we'd need a new UKB thread, and no one would want that... one's more than enough! Now I see we have another one... What the hell happened?!
Not sure, I didn't even notice when I first replied

A Jooser

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#8 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 02:48:12 pm
...We will still remain members of the Council of Europe post-Brexit...

This is a failry recent development though right? May was keen to leave it but was forced to back down re: reciprocal security arrangements? Your statement makes it look like this was never on the table?

Not exactly teestub. UK's being in the ECHR and ECtHR rely on our membership of the Council of Europe (est. 1950) which is nothing to do with the EU (est. 1992) or Brexit negotiations.

Mrs May as Home Secretary had beef with the ECtHR over deporting some fella with a monocle and hook for a hand so argued we'd be better off withdrawing from the ECHR. When she became Prime Minister post the 2016 Referendum, I think she realised she had too much on her plate (what with leaving the EU an' all) and that she'd be unlikely to get agreement from Parliament having such a small majority and MPs on her own side being uncomfortable with it. Withdrawing from one set of international treaties seem quite enough, so the idea of leaving the ECHR is on hold and wasn't in the last Conservative manifesto...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-manifesto-uk-echr-european-convention-human-rights-leave-eu-next-parliament-election-a7742436.html

So perhaps there's another silver lining. One can only hope that her stated desire of demonstrating the UK is not withdrawing from the world will give incentive for her government to commit to staying in the ECHR and perhaps even strengthening the 47-member Council of Europe as a body for pan-continental cooperation.

teestub

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#9 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 02:58:26 pm
Apols, I meant the change in heart on withdrawing was recent.

Apparently not withdrawing from ECHR was just on hold 'for the next parliament' until Barnier insisted otherwise. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-white-paper-eu-european-convention-on-human-rights-tory-mps-a8444386.html

But I'm sure this is just spin from a pro remain rag.  How in charge of our sovereignty are we really if the home secretary can waste millions trying to deport someone only for those bloody euro bureaucrats to tell them otherwise   ::)

seankenny

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#10 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 03:14:16 pm

Above, Pete noted that economic forecasts are proven to be generally unreliable - but noted that he believes that the UK economy will be worse off in the short term as a result of leaving. In the long term it is just as likely to do well as to do badly, and no-one can accurately predict this.

The point I was trying to make - clumsily - on the other thread was that not all forecasts are created equal. In fact the predictions of a poor economic outcome tend to be long run predictions, and expert opinion is fairly confident in them.

The usual analogy is something like: I can’t predict your weight in ten years, but I can predict that if you increase your diet of beer and pizza, you’ll be heavier than otherwise, all other things being equal.

No one is saying the economy won’t grow, just that it will be smaller than otherwise.

seankenny

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#11 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 03:24:53 pm
“I certainly take the point that successive UK governments, of all different parties, have blamed the EU for their own failings.”

I don’t buy this at all. Consider the great modern UK policy disasters:

Financial crisis
Iraq
Austerity
Decline of NHS
Rubbish tertiary education
Poorly handled de-industrialisation
Housing crisis/lack of social housing
Poor quality infrastructure
Etc

Has the EU really been used as a scapegoat for these decisions? No one said we had to invade Iraq because Jacques Delores said so. Has the EU been invoked in the long slow debacle of building more airport capacity for London?

At the edges, maybe, but for serious government failures - I don’t think so.



A Jooser

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#12 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 03:30:23 pm
Its a fair cop, I was sloppy, but I was trying to address the populist reasons that leavers commonly use and, whether ECHR is affected by Brexit or not, it is often cited by leavers as a reasons for leaving...

Indeed. Greater understanding of the facts is needed on all sides; we should all take care not to perpetuate myths.

...every self-inflicted cock up our govt makes is blamed on the EU (their intransigence, their determination to do one over on us etc.) this will continue for decades.

...even if they stop blaming the EU (and I'm mainly talking about the Tories now) they will find another scapegoat, there'll be plenty of immigrants left over to blame, plenty of poor, disabled, single mum's. The nasty blaming of others will be exacerbate, not ended, by this process...

You are right. 'They' will blame the EU for decades, as 'they' always blame the mess left them by their predecessors in goverment, etc. The next scapegoat, post EU-membership, to where democratic blame will be shifted, will be our local councils. We must pay attention.

The arguments are: 1) there are so many areas of EU competence over which we have no say, and 2) the UK government scapegoats the EU for its own failings. I suspect there's a great deal of truth in both of these, but personally believe it will now be very hard for our elected representatives to hide behind the EU.

...I'm now looking forward to our Insect Overlords blaming new EU GDPR rules for the sudden appearance of this second thread.  ;)

Teaboy

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#13 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 03:50:04 pm

Financial crisis
Iraq
Austerity
Decline of NHS
Rubbish tertiary education
Poorly handled de-industrialisation
Housing crisis/lack of social housing
Poor quality infrastructure
Etc

If not directly then certainly indirectly and it's certainly been a useful distraction for these last 20 years.

seankenny

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#14 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 04:46:00 pm

Financial crisis
Iraq
Austerity
Decline of NHS
Rubbish tertiary education
Poorly handled de-industrialisation
Housing crisis/lack of social housing
Poor quality infrastructure
Etc

If not directly then certainly indirectly and it's certainly been a useful distraction for these last 20 years.

Who blamed the EU “indirectly” for Iraq and what does this even mean - given that most other EU members weren’t involved? “If only we weren’t in the EU, we’d never have been in Basra.” It’s literally nonsense.

Same with many other things on my list. Has the EU been blamed for then UK’s poor planning, or our over-centralisation? Has it been blamed for RBS or Northern Rock?

As for a useful distraction, EU issues were bottom of people’s concerns for years. We have plenty of survey data on this. If it was a distraction it was a very poor one.

I think you’re making the mistake of looking at the past too much through the eyes of the very recent present.


Teaboy

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#15 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 04:55:41 pm
I meant to explicitly exclude Iraq but to be honest it doesn't matter as my point is if Brexit wasn't about those things, and wasn't about the economy because even leavers now accepting there'll be a hit to the economy what was it about? People did not make the connection between Brexit and the engarive things in their lives by themselves, politicians were complicit in that.

tregiffian

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#16 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 05:24:26 pm
At the risk of repeating myself, Leavers, among other things voted for independence, our fate in out hands was my main thought. Also I again query the longevity of the EU. It is a big bloated lump but rather like a shark best observed from a distance.

teestub

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#17 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 05:34:05 pm
At the risk of repeating myself, Leavers, among other things voted for independence, our fate in out hands was my main thought.

What particular part of your fate did you feel was being stifled but the European Union? 

tregiffian

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#18 Re: EU Referendum
August 10, 2018, 11:35:54 pm
The Common Fisheries Policy. I look forward to a 12 mile limit all round the coast including Rockall. The New Model army and other vanity projects on which we have no effective say. Finally the appalling Gravy Train which is the Commission. That will do for now as it is past my bedtime.


teestub

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#19 Re: EU Referendum
August 11, 2018, 08:08:58 am
Quote
The EU has also made any future post-Brexit trade deal conditional on maintaining access for its fisherman – something the UK industry fears means further climbdowns will follow.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/23/britains-fishing-fleet-and-brexit-promises-key-questions-answered

Will see how you get on with that, seems likely that concessions to EU fishermen will be made if it helps lubricate other larger agreements.

tregiffian

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#20 Re: EU Referendum
August 11, 2018, 09:00:03 am
If we get to do the March 29th base jump over the cliff edge we can use some of the £39bn to beef up the Fisheries Protection which is currently woeful.
Business does not like uncertainty. Any form of `transition period` will create a significant spell of continuing uncertainty which will undoubtedly have an adverse impact on output and investment.

mrjonathanr

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#21 Re: EU Referendum
August 11, 2018, 09:05:55 am
If we get to do the March 29th base jump over the cliff edge we

... will be in crisis, and welching on a previous commitment really won’t have that big an impact given the ongoing headwinds for the economy.

teestub

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#22 Re: EU Referendum
August 11, 2018, 10:40:31 am
If we get to do the March 29th base jump over the cliff edge we can use some of the £39bn to beef up the Fisheries Protection which is currently

I honestly think you’re just trolling now, because that’s the kinder of the two analyses I came up with for your posts, so I’m done.

Teaboy

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#23 Re: EU Referendum
August 11, 2018, 11:02:01 am
If we get to do the March 29th base jump over the cliff edge we can use some of the £39bn to beef up the Fisheries Protection which is currently woeful.
Business does not like uncertainty. Any form of `transition period` will create a significant spell of continuing uncertainty which will undoubtedly have an adverse impact on output and investment.

I've been trying to get my head around how important an issue this is. Obviously if your are a fisherman it's important but from an economic point of view the answer is 'not very'. I got this from the govt website:
In 2015, EU vessels caught 683,000 tonnes (£484 million revenue) in UK waters and UK vessels caught 111,000 tonnes (£114 million revenue) in Member States’ waters.

So we stand to gain an extra £370 million worth of fish per year.
Fishing the extra will require investment in the fishing fleet.
Some UK fishing ports get EU community funds which the government has not promised to replace.
Some fishing ports have requested to become free ports post Brexit because of the negative impact on their on shore activities.
You seem to want to increase spending in fisheries protection.

If you are a fisherman then your choice is logical, if not then this particular benefit is very small.

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#24 Re: EU Referendum
August 11, 2018, 11:18:44 am
If we get to do the March 29th base jump over the cliff edge we can use some of the £39bn to beef up the Fisheries Protection which is currently woeful.
Business does not like uncertainty. Any form of `transition period` will create a significant spell of continuing uncertainty which will undoubtedly have an adverse impact on output and investment.
Not going to happen.
I keep a close eye on Naval spending etc. Mostly being cut back, massively. Fully committed for the next two decades, too. Planning, designing, tendering for a fleet of fishery protection vessels? Ten years of procurement 5-9 years construction, plus seatrials etc, twenty years before they see service...
£39B? Chicken feed. Anyway, I thought you were promising to fund the NHS with that?

 

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