[jfdm]

Looking at maybe voting Libdems, due to antibrexit stance.
Voting from 2015, my constituency safe labour seat with 65% of share, Cons about 21%, Libs 4% ukip 4%. So don't think that tactical voting would make any difference here. Lab majority may well fall but voting libdems wouldn't change a thing.
Will have to see how Libs/lab/greens talk the talk, before I cast my vote.

A real shame that that lab committed to Brexit and also this gen election so readily.
Would have been better to have dug their heels in and opt for no confidence vote in the gov. Think this would have been the best line to take in my opinion once again lab jumping to cons tune.

[Oldmanmatt]

Looking at maybe voting Libdems, due to antibrexit stance.
Voting from 2015, my constituency safe labour seat with 65% of share, Cons about 21%, Libs 4% ukip 4%. So don't think that tactical voting would make any difference here. Lab majority may well fall but voting libdems wouldn't change a thing.
Will have to see how Libs/lab/greens talk the talk, before I cast my vote.

A real shame that that lab committed to Brexit and also this gen election so readily.
Would have been better to have dug their heels in and opt for no confidence vote in the gov. Think this would have been the best line to take in my opinion once again lab jumping to cons tune.

[emoji106]

[Wood FT]

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-cps-considering-charges-against-over-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses

Shat herself and needs to consolidate?

Edit: late to the party

[Oldmanmatt]

http://e.infogr.am/stop_the_tories-0?src=embed

I'm no left winger and voting labour sticks in my craw; but...

Needs must when the Devil drives.
This nation is more than wealthy enough to look after its' most needy and its' sick. The top 1% do not need another tax cut. Education, at any level; is our most important social investment and should never be the domain of the wealthy (ie. it should be free).
We don't need continued fossil fuel development, we need to move to renewables.
Schools are not political footballs.
Brexit is not the main reason to vote (though it might be better without the selfishness of the Tories (or better, not happen)).

We don't need to fawn to the US.

We don't need to be scared of our own shadows and a Hijab isn't dangerous.

Nor are people with funny accents a threat to our economy.

And Murdoch already has enough power.


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[jwi]

I might post this question here as well:

For free and fair elections I tend to use the uninformed prior: i.e. that the outcome is 50/50, but that this can be updated closer to the election as people prepare themselves for voting and polling improves. Can someone explain why everyone is so sure that this election is very lopsided in favour of the tories? The voters have had 0 days to make up their mind so far.

[tommytwotone]

First and foremost, I'm assuming the fact that the haunted gallery owner has an opinion poll lead unheard of in recent history is the main driver, though obviously polls have been incorrect in the recent past.


Couple that with:

• A political lean to the right from the general proletariat confirmed by Brexit
• The laughable state of Labour generally
• Fragmentation of any potential non-Tory votes across Lab, Lib Dem etc depending on their approach
• The fact the SNP will all but wipe Labour out in Scotland
• Putin probably having no interest in fixing this one so Jezza gets in

Also, wasn't one of Cameron's last acts to change the constituency boundaries to favour his lot as well?



The bookies have a Tory win at something like 1/16, with a majority at 1/7. They are rarely wrong.

[tommytwotone]

In fact, the total seats under/over for the Tories is currently at 375.5 which gives you some idea of where the market thinks this is going.

[tomtom]

Also, wasn't one of Cameron's last acts to change the constituency boundaries to favour his lot as well?



The bookies have a Tory win at something like 1/16, with a majority at 1/7. They are rarely wrong.

This will be before the boundary changes (one of the few tory reasons against apparently..)

Bookies got Brexit and Trump wrong... But this time around I see no other outcome - unless someone does a Nick Clegg (2010)

[tommytwotone]

The bookies have a Tory win at something like 1/16, with a majority at 1/7. They are rarely wrong.

Bookies got Brexit and Trump wrong... But this time around I see no other outcome - unless someone does a Nick Clegg (2010)

See my comment above re: Putin!

[SA Chris]

[li]The fact the SNP will all but wipe Labour out in Scotland[/li][/list]

That was done already in the last election? IIRC Labour hold one seat and Tories hold one here, both of which I think will go to SNP this time.

[jfdm]

I'm no left winger and voting labour sticks in my craw; but...
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Here is something that could possibly sway me to put a big peg on my nose as I go into the voting booth.
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/this-is-how-you-should-vote-to-stop-the-tories-1-4980541
Brexit will play a part in my thinking but as you mentioned the wider issues are as important like education, health, economy etc.
I just hope that this election sham will be seen for what it is and blows up Mayhems hands.

[SA Chris]

It would make my year.

[monkoffunk]

Too much to claw back

[SA Chris]

Actually I shouldn't be too harsh on them, after all the media/papers pretty much told everyone to hate Clegg.

This may be the crux of this election. Now he's gone (ish - as leader at least) one or two papers for the masses decide they are hacked off enough with Tories and get behind LDs and champion them, and it might just swing. Maybe.

[monkoffunk]

So libdems seat share might increase, but will still be massive Tory majority.

[tomtom]

So libdems seat share might increase, but will still be massive Tory majority.

Probably...

[galpinos]

Tom Tom, why would John Leech be a shoe in? He was a good MP but so has Jeff Smith been. Jeff Smith has a 14k (30 odd %) majority, far bigger than John Leech ever had and as a whip he defied JC and voted in line with his conscience and constituency on Article 50 so he's got the remain vote.

[Oldmanmatt]

I like the sound of an anti-Tory coalition. A bit of the Center to temper the Left, with a tinge of Green.

Well, I can dream; can't I?


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[mrjonathanr]

Here's my guess. The Tories will increase the number of MPs; Lib Dems will too, a bit; Labour will decline, but not utterly, not enough to bring the party decisively together so they'll limp on.

[monkoffunk]

I've spoken to a Labour insider (political advisor to an MP) who is predicting Labour will lose over 100 seats and Corbyn won't resign. Pretty bold as these things go!

She had also predicted May would call a snap election to be held in May, so she wasn't far off.

[TobyD]

And to think this whole terrible domino effect started largely because a guy got caught on camera looking a bit weird while eating a bacon sandwich.

This 'news' story must be one of the worst episodes in British journalism, it really was the most unpleasant vein of anti Semitism running through certain parts of the right wing press.

[TobyD]

To TT etc re ignoring the news: NO! Apathy is why Brexit came about. Don't do it again!

The real tragedy in the current news is that gobsmacking despotism is congratulated by the US president with a friendly phone call: Trump must see Erdogan locking up journalists and think ooo yeah there's an idea.... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-recep-tayyip-erdogan-congratulate-turkey-referendum-president-powers-increase-reaction-a7688171.html

[TobyD]

My sitting MP is shadow Brexit minister.
http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/commons/paul-blomfield/4058

Good job he's doing there. He also approved Trump's visit. Unfortunately, barring a cataclysmic swing in voting habits - a majority of nearly 40% - he will win, but at the moment my votes definitely going green.

[rich d]

Haven't the recent polls being wrong for the last election and Brexit, all shown that polls give a slightly biased left leaning result, meaning that the conservatives could be on an even bigger majority than even the polls are showing.

[monkoffunk]

my votes definitely going green.

Just out of interest, why?