[tomtom]

Can anyone explain why it might take longer to count mail in ballots than votes cast in person? Something to do with verifying it's valid presumably?

Even if it does take longer per vote it seems bizarre that we might not have a result for days after; surely you just get more people in to do the count.

AFAIK its because in some states they cant start counting the mail in votes until the polls are closed. Then (again depending on state) the postmark may have to be verified (to confirm the date) then there are checks to confirm the authenticity of who voted (signature check or something..). All of which have to be done manually.

[mrjonathanr]

I understood they go into counting machines and need to be smooth before feeding in, which involves a bit of a faff. Also to be valid they have to be sent in a special sealed envelope inside an outer postal envelope. so I read, at least. Maybe Andy P knows first hand? Or Coops?

[andy popp]

Also to be valid they have to be sent in a special sealed envelope inside an outer postal envelope.

This certainly describes mail in ballots in Pennsylvania, but voting processes are set at state level and vary enormously, so its really not possible to generalise. Even within states things are not uniform; my wife's ballot (voting in PA from abroad) is not machine readable. In lots of places organization and infrastructures are also not really fit for purpose.

Significantly, Florida is one of 17 states that allow the counting of early and mail in ballots before election day (typically after early voting closes. Another 16 states allow counting to begin on the day but before polls close), so we could see an early call from Fl, which is currently a toss up and a must win for Trump. If he does win there he will try and call the whole thing, even though polls might still be open on the west coast

[andy popp]

A friend of mine was in line to vote early this morning, in a really very lovely, safe Pennsylvanian town that narrowly voted for Hillary last time, when a man came out having just voted with an AR15 strapped across his back. Just so bizarre.

[Bradders]

Only in America.

Things like that make me still think Trump might well win.

Thanks for the info on mail in ballots. Makes sense in terms of why they take longer to count. What doesn't make sense is the variation between states on a national vote!

[tomtom]

There was a great graphic on C4 news last week - that showed how because of the large mail in component this time and the likelihood that more Rep voters vote in person on the day - how on the night it may look like a 400-200 Trump win - but this could completely reverse as the early votes are then counted.

Though I think Florida will have counted most of its votes on the day - and being an early announcing "bellweather" state I might stay up to midnight to see what the early signs are from there....

[andy popp]

Thanks for the info on mail in ballots. Makes sense in terms of why they take longer to count. What doesn't make sense is the variation between states on a national vote!

I should have added that some mail in ballots require manual processing because state laws demand that signatures have to be verified etc. Yes, it is completely bizarre that there is not a single standard for conducting a national election. But State's rights remains a very powerful cornerstone of the political system.

@TT, if Trump doesn't win Florida it's almost certainly over. However, the polls don't close until 7pm EST. I'm going to go bed and get up around 3. But I guess there will be exit polls.

[Bradders]

My election night approach is always to just go to bed and find out in the morning. Triggers far too much anxiety watching early results come in, and that's just for UK elections where the process makes a modicum of sense

[tomtom]

My election night approach is always to just go to bed and find out in the morning. Triggers far too much anxiety watching early results come in, and that's just for UK elections where the process makes a modicum of sense

I'll see how I feel last night I felt knackered by 9, but for some reason stayed awake until 11 researching how to put LED's on my board :D bonkers.

[andy popp]

Razor thin ... but far from over yet. But it's clear there is no blue wave. GOP will retain the Senate, totally hobbling Biden if he wins.

[tomtom]

Squeaky bum time as they say...

Woke up a few times in the night and checked...

Like you said no over yet - but it’s going to be close.

[Oldmanmatt]

I can’t see Biden getting there.
It is amazing how split places like Texas actually are though.

[ali k]

Fuck fuck fuck

[andy popp]

I can’t see Biden getting there.

I'm not optimistic but it shouldn't be ruled out yet.

[tomtom]

Hold on - keep the faith - some of those inc Penn have loads of postal votes that are still to be counted....

It’s got strong echoes of 2016 but it’s not that bad - yet....

[andy popp]

Trump just tried to short circuit the whole process in a completely unprecedented way, but it is not over. However, I now think he will win a straight victory, within the rules of the game as they are.

[tomtom]

AP just called Arizona for Biden... means he doesn’t ‘need’ Pen.

[spidermonkey09]

This is a fascist coup in real time. We all knew it was coming but its unbelievable to watch it unfolding. Not over yet for Biden but the fight is only just beginning as Trump will not leave unless forced by the courts.

[moose]

The bookies have Trump odds-on to win (implied probability around 65%), and they are often a better guide than polls and embedded experts:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner?selectionName=donald-trump

[Offwidth]

Looking at the rust belt votes so far, irrespective of the Democrat's advantage in remaining votes, the betting sites are close where I sit now. Trump at least as likely to win clean. Also with a possible score draw and the state representatives in the house almost certainly re-electing Trump (also a clean win). About half of Biden's possible ways to win now look like a potential legal quagmire.

You can play with the numbers here:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/30/build-your-own-us-election-result-plot-a-win-for-biden-or-trump

Chapeau to Toby and I worry for the future.

[TobyD]

Looking at the rust belt votes so far, irrespective of the Democrat's advantage in remaining votes, the betting sites are close where I sit now. Trump at least as likely to win clean. Also with a possible score draw and the state representatives in the house almost certainly re-electing Trump (also a clean win). About half of Biden's possible ways to win now look like a potential legal quagmire.

You can play with the numbers here:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/30/build-your-own-us-election-result-plot-a-win-for-biden-or-trump

Chapeau to Toby and I worry for the future.

Christ it's fucking depressing predicting vote results.  Since 2016, just assume everything will be slightly worse than you can imagine. 

[TobyD]

It really is amazing just how many countries in the world are run by thoroughly unpleasant people at the moment. Orban, Erdoghan, Trump, Bolsanaro..... Johnson looking like a saint.

[Fultonius]

Is it wrong to say that this is a lot down to have shit democratic candidates? Much as I hate trump, Biden is just another in the succession of Clinton, no? Another Neolib suit, with a right wing running partner?

Fuck em, if America want this, leave em to it....

[Oldmanmatt]

It really is amazing just how many countries in the world are run by thoroughly unpleasant people at the moment. Orban, Erdoghan, Trump, Bolsanaro..... Johnson looking like a saint.

Not as worrying as the amount of support they enjoy.

[spidermonkey09]

The bookies have Trump odds-on to win (implied probability around 65%), and they are often a better guide than polls and embedded experts:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner?selectionName=donald-trump

Dead levels on Betfair now. Edit, Biden a very narrow favourite. When I woke up Biden had drifted out to 3.5. Bookies are no more or less reliable than any other source; if anything they are reactive and so should be treated with more caution.

Nate Silver still optimistic for Biden. He3 has just gone ahead in Wisconsin.