UKBouldering.com

Trump (Read 175928 times)

tomtom

Online
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 18771
  • Karma: +585/-8
#1650 Re: Trump
July 30, 2020, 10:31:47 pm
Problem is (for a thread) that heís such a fucking car crash that thereís no counter argument... itís hard to be surprised at anything he does now (today is a case I. Point).

TobyD

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2538
  • Karma: +75/-2
#1651 Re: Trump
July 30, 2020, 11:25:40 pm
Problem is (for a thread) that heís such a fucking car crash that thereís no counter argument... itís hard to be surprised at anything he does now (today is a case I. Point).

However, it's remarkable how far being like he is has got him. He is / was a mediocre businessman at best, but from this background fronted a ludicrously popular reality TV show and pretended he'd written the art of the deal, both of which gained him popularity, exposure and notorioty.

He's a joke of a politician, but the fact remains that he is president. He clearly has a sense of what appeals to people and can make it work. The idiotic behaviour may well be what appeals to people. Will it appeal to enough people to keep him in office? I think, perhaps.

Oldmanmatt

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • At this rate, I probably wonít last the week.
  • Posts: 5784
  • Karma: +286/-11
  • Bugger! 49 arrived. I Thought opted out of ageing.
    • The Boulder Bunker climbing centre
#1652 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 08:50:55 am
Problem is (for a thread) that heís such a fucking car crash that thereís no counter argument... itís hard to be surprised at anything he does now (today is a case I. Point).

However, it's remarkable how far being like he is has got him. He is / was a mediocre businessman at best, but from this background fronted a ludicrously popular reality TV show and pretended he'd written the art of the deal, both of which gained him popularity, exposure and notorioty.

He's a joke of a politician, but the fact remains that he is president. He clearly has a sense of what appeals to people and can make it work. The idiotic behaviour may well be what appeals to people. Will it appeal to enough people to keep him in office? I think, perhaps.

The truth probably lays somewhere between the two extremes.

There are several inside accounts of his dejection and expectation of failure on election night, for instance.

The voting patterns back in 2016, really point to the Dems losing the election, rather than the GOP winning (if that makes sense) as it were. Clinton was not a good candidate, or at least, too unpopular amongst her own party and swing voters.
Hard to tell exactly how much influence that had, but I think weíll find out in November.
Ultimately, for me, I think the turnout for his Tulsa rally and the recent sequela for his most prominent African American supporter, is going to be indicative of his future.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1387
  • Karma: +49/-12
    • Offwidth
#1653 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 10:40:16 am

However, it's remarkable how far being like he is has got him. He is / was a mediocre businessman at best, but from this background fronted a ludicrously popular reality TV show and pretended he'd written the art of the deal, both of which gained him popularity, exposure and notorioty.

He's a joke of a politician, but the fact remains that he is president. He clearly has a sense of what appeals to people and can make it work. The idiotic behaviour may well be what appeals to people. Will it appeal to enough people to keep him in office? I think, perhaps.

Perhaps? Anyone sensible says that. You said he would most likely win. My resulting debate on the subject highlights the greater problems he faces this time.

As for the rest, he is the front man for GOP. He follows in their grand recent line of dumb leaders. Without GOP he is nowhere and he must be getting close to to the point when distancing moves to something bigger. Trying to distract from my debate and the links evidencing with that cheap Guardian line is below you.

teestub

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1159
  • Karma: +106/-3
  • Cyber Wanker
#1654 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 11:18:58 am

As for the rest, he is the front man for GOP. He follows in their grand recent line of dumb leaders. Without GOP he is nowhere and he must be getting close to to the point when distancing moves to something bigger.

What strategy do the GOP have besides supporting the incumbent president?

tomtom

Online
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 18771
  • Karma: +585/-8
#1655 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 11:22:39 am

As for the rest, he is the front man for GOP. He follows in their grand recent line of dumb leaders. Without GOP he is nowhere and he must be getting close to to the point when distancing moves to something bigger.

What strategy do the GOP have besides supporting the incumbent president?

Yeah - I don't see this. I suspect the GOP went for Trump so they could get in power - now they have a dictator wannabe who whilst may be dumb and malleable - is also highly erratic and hard to predict. I suspect they'd much rather have someone else in charge.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1387
  • Karma: +49/-12
    • Offwidth
#1656 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 11:28:55 am
There is the nub. If the numbers for all the other GOP elections start to look too bad the question becomes is Plan B to take the hit and rebuild, or jump the gun, get rid of the orange one and look at damage limitation with Pence, another potential dumb leader.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mike-pence-coronavirus-fake-video-doctors-donald-trump-twitter-deleted-a9646071.html

teestub

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1159
  • Karma: +106/-3
  • Cyber Wanker
#1657 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 11:33:39 am
There is the nub. If the numbers for all the other GOP elections start to look too bad the question becomes is Plan B to take the hit and rebuild, or jump the gun, get rid of the orange one and look at damage limitation with Pence,

What mechanism do you envisage for this though, siding with Dems to try and trigger 25th Amendment? It seems vanishingly unlikely that they will do anything besides rally behind Trump.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1387
  • Karma: +49/-12
    • Offwidth
#1658 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 11:40:40 am
There is the nub. If the numbers for all the other GOP elections start to look too bad the question becomes is Plan B to take the hit and rebuild, or jump the gun, get rid of the orange one and look at damage limitation with Pence,

What mechanism do you envisage for this though, siding with Dems to try and trigger 25th Amendment? It seems vanishingly unlikely that they will do anything besides rally behind Trump.

It's remarkable how inventive political parties can become when the leader is a genuine liability. Trump didn't risk GOP senate elections last time. There is a logical line of terrible polls for many GOP candidates and his escaping with his legacy relatively intact (obviously from a GOP perspective), the inevitable mountains of dirt, threats to block him if elected and probably a few other methods.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 11:48:22 am by Offwidth »

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1387
  • Karma: +49/-12
    • Offwidth
#1659 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 05:49:48 pm
I think Offwidth's account may have been taken over by a bot that posts links to the Guardian but which never generate any meaningful discussion.

As Toby says, we can all pick up on embarrassing news conferences in the press or other social media. If there's no discussion to be had about them then what's the point in posting? Is this thread just meant as a catalogue of Trump's shitness? I can get that much more comprehensively elsewhere.

I've counted to 10 now. One of the great things about UKB is our profiles have a list of our posts. It doesn't take long to go back through mine to see I'm hardly guilty of constant 'link bombing' with no obvious context or of failing to debate. On one occasion I was guilty of that, Pete and others rightly called me out and I apologised and explained what I meant  (it was one of those life overtaking thinking incidents people get when stressed). Other posters have pointed out that other site users don't get the negative scrutiny I do for. You do seem to have an issue with me that looks unhealthy.

As a point of irony I find the repository aspect of UKB and site structure incredibly useful; for everyone's links not just mine. Finding old news articles and Twitter spats and even scientific papers (as I have left Uni and lost access to academic search facility ) can be a real pain but I can find everything I was interested in posted here, if I need it again for something else.

Anyhow another opinion where the author thinks Trump is losing his past success on his 'common touch' in the response to Portland.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/31/trump-portland-antifa-voters-miscalculated
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 06:19:28 pm by Offwidth »

Oldmanmatt

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • At this rate, I probably wonít last the week.
  • Posts: 5784
  • Karma: +286/-11
  • Bugger! 49 arrived. I Thought opted out of ageing.
    • The Boulder Bunker climbing centre
#1660 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 07:11:32 pm
I think Offwidth's account may have been taken over by a bot that posts links to the Guardian but which never generate any meaningful discussion.

As Toby says, we can all pick up on embarrassing news conferences in the press or other social media. If there's no discussion to be had about them then what's the point in posting? Is this thread just meant as a catalogue of Trump's shitness? I can get that much more comprehensively elsewhere.

I've counted to 10 now. One of the great things about UKB is our profiles have a list of our posts. It doesn't take long to go back through mine to see I'm hardly guilty of constant 'link bombing' with no obvious context or of failing to debate. On one occasion I was guilty of that, Pete and others rightly called me out and I apologised and explained what I meant  (it was one of those life overtaking thinking incidents people get when stressed). Other posters have pointed out that other site users don't get the negative scrutiny I do for. You do seem to have an issue with me that looks unhealthy.

As a point of irony I find the repository aspect of UKB and site structure incredibly useful; for everyone's links not just mine. Finding old news articles and Twitter spats and even scientific papers (as I have left Uni and lost access to academic search facility ) can be a real pain but I can find everything I was interested in posted here, if I need it again for something else.

Anyhow another opinion where the author thinks Trump is losing his past success on his 'common touch' in the response to Portland.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/31/trump-portland-antifa-voters-miscalculated

I was reading an article on the beach earlier, over a cup of tea...

Which is to say, I canít find the link again now and donít have time at this second to look harder.

It was about the ďFree SheriffsĒ (or similar) movement and how they believe the Sheriff is the ultimate authority and arbiter of the Constitution. Itís surprisingly widespread.
To be clear, itís an organisation of duly elected Sheriffs and they are actively opposing things like Lockdowns and mask orders, on the basis of some underlying unconstitutionality of a Governorís executive order (also quite a lot of 2nd amendment related issues, like background checks etc).
Since they are incredibly pro-Trump and despite some pretty extreme reactionary activities, these guys are generally not facing recall in their jurisdictions, it seems likely that Trumps support might be much greater at grassroots level than polling or the media coverage suggests.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1387
  • Karma: +49/-12
    • Offwidth
#1661 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 07:34:59 pm
Again, we will see. This is not the same as last time: Trump only just beat Clinton and she was getting pretty bad press and
made stupid errors and got ill; his actions hadn't contributed to 100,000 unneccesary extra excess deaths, a crashed economy and millions out of work as a result. Attacking respected military leaders, many of his ex cabinet and advisors and even Fox News with GOP possibly heading to a lost senate. The demographic has shifted to Democrats benefit. Social media will be better policed.

https://bookies.com/news/senate-races-odds-tracker

Yes he could still win but it doesn't look most likely right now.

andy popp

Online
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 4479
  • Karma: +282/-4
#1662 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 07:37:41 pm
I read the article. I'm not saying there isn't strong grassroots support, but the Constitutionalist Sheriffs movement is not evidence of it. They generally represent scattered small pockets, mostly in the South West and West, places that already had pronounced anti governments traditions. They're elected at the county level, which are small administrative units. Pennsylvania (to which I always recur, I realise) is a big place; nonetheless it's worth bearing in mind that it has 67 counties, most of them small or empty or both.

TL:DR - you can be a Sheriff in the US and represent almost no-one, especially in Montana.

TobyD

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2538
  • Karma: +75/-2
#1663 Re: Trump
July 31, 2020, 10:23:32 pm

However, it's remarkable how far being like he is has got him. He is / was a mediocre businessman at best, but from this background fronted a ludicrously popular reality TV show and pretended he'd written the art of the deal, both of which gained him popularity, exposure and notorioty.

He's a joke of a politician, but the fact remains that he is president. He clearly has a sense of what appeals to people and can make it work. The idiotic behaviour may well be what appeals to people. Will it appeal to enough people to keep him in office? I think, perhaps.

Perhaps? Anyone sensible says that. You said he would most likely win. My resulting debate on the subject highlights the greater problems he faces this time.

As for the rest, he is the front man for GOP. He follows in their grand recent line of dumb leaders. Without GOP he is nowhere and he must be getting close to to the point when distancing moves to something bigger. Trying to distract from my debate and the links evidencing with that cheap Guardian line is below you.

I'm not sure if guardian comment columns constitute evidence.

When I said perhaps it was intended to suggest that I thought this was likely. There no doubt that presidency has not gone well for Trump. There are a thousand reasons why he shouldn't be reelected, but I'd still maintain he could win with a combination of dirty tricks, voter apathy about Biden and a genuinely trump supporting minority.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1387
  • Karma: +49/-12
    • Offwidth
#1664 Re: Trump
August 01, 2020, 12:33:53 am
Post all the Guardian links you like (please don't...  ;)) Trump will still be president in 2021.


A bit of a change in a week. I feel a bit sad pointing this out as I think you are right about the US liberal elite underestimating his reach and the possible dirty tricks route.

TobyD

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2538
  • Karma: +75/-2
#1665 Re: Trump
August 01, 2020, 09:33:20 am
Post all the Guardian links you like (please don't...  ;)) Trump will still be president in 2021.


A bit of a change in a week. I feel a bit sad pointing this out as I think you are right about the US liberal elite underestimating his reach and the possible dirty tricks route.

My comments are only light hearted guesswork,  informed by a reasonably wide breadth of media consumption including US media, the BBC and British papers.
Don't get me wrong I also want nothing better than Biden / Rice (??) handing him a total humiliation, and him then being bankrupted by numerous legal costs arising from all the people who want to take him to court.  But unfortunately hes still a strong media performer and compelling, even if you hate him.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1387
  • Karma: +49/-12
    • Offwidth
#1666 Re: Trump
August 02, 2020, 09:14:25 am
Jon Naughton with a whiff of optimism from the grilling of tech titans by the democrats on the Congress anti-trust committee (and the depressing obsessions of the Republicans).

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/commentisfree/2020/aug/02/at-last-the-tech-titans-nerd-immunity-shows-signs-of-fading

Ru

Offline
  • *****
  • Global Moderator
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1812
  • Karma: +105/-0
#1667 Re: Trump
August 02, 2020, 10:59:16 am
One concern is that the current spike in covid cases in the UK/EU, Hong Kong, Japan etc turn into second waves. All of a sudden, Trump's management of covid won't look as bad as it once did.

andy popp

Online
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 4479
  • Karma: +282/-4
#1668 Re: Trump
August 02, 2020, 12:19:05 pm
One concern is that the current spike in covid cases in the UK/EU, Hong Kong, Japan etc turn into second waves. All of a sudden, Trump's management of covid won't look as bad as it once did.

You're assuming that a significant number of American voters are interested in and understand what is happening in other countries. Of course, there are millions of Americans who are well travelled and internationally oriented, but there are also many millions with very little knowledge of the wider world. Patriotism and belief in American exceptionalism are very strong and for many Americans it is practically inconceivable that another country might actually be better at anything.

jwi

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2670
  • Karma: +195/-0
  • uhm... huh?
    • On Steep Ground
#1669 Re: Trump
August 02, 2020, 02:57:47 pm
[...] but there are also many millions with very little knowledge of the wider world. Patriotism and belief in American exceptionalism are very strong and for many Americans it is practically inconceivable that another country might actually be better at anything.

Alas, I have found this to be true in every single country I have spent significant time in (except Norway, they magnanimously  admit that the roads might be straighter and wider in Sweden).


Oldmanmatt

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • At this rate, I probably wonít last the week.
  • Posts: 5784
  • Karma: +286/-11
  • Bugger! 49 arrived. I Thought opted out of ageing.
    • The Boulder Bunker climbing centre
#1670 Re: Trump
August 02, 2020, 04:25:39 pm
[...] but there are also many millions with very little knowledge of the wider world. Patriotism and belief in American exceptionalism are very strong and for many Americans it is practically inconceivable that another country might actually be better at anything.


Alas, I have found this to be true in every single country I have spent significant time in (except Norway, they magnanimously  admit that the roads might be straighter and wider in Sweden).

Noted:
*Might*

TobyD

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2538
  • Karma: +75/-2
#1671 Re: Trump
August 02, 2020, 10:29:09 pm
[...] but there are also many millions with very little knowledge of the wider world. Patriotism and belief in American exceptionalism are very strong and for many Americans it is practically inconceivable that another country might actually be better at anything.

Alas, I have found this to be true in every single country I have spent significant time in (except Norway, they magnanimously  admit that the roads might be straighter and wider in Sweden).

I'd agree apart from the African countries I've been in for a while: Morocco, Namibia and Kenya. Fairly self depreciating as far as I remember.

 

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2020, SimplePortal