Post all the Guardian links you like (please don't... ) Trump will still be president in 2021.
Less flippantly, I think Toby's absolute confidence that Trump will win in November is mistaken (caveat: as I've said many times, he may still win). He's looking more vulnerable than at any point and his every turn looks more ill-judged and less effective. There are obviously also a lot of unknowns in play, far more than normal, and his room for manoeuvre looks limited. The economy is not going to come roaring back, there isn't time, and judging from the huge surge in cases this month then deaths are going to look really bad in August. God knows what else what else may happen in the next three and a half months. There are few places left for him to hide. Caveat (just to be sure), he might well still win. At the same time I think it is wrong to dismiss him as incidental to current events. His racism is very real and strong enough to think white supremacy is now his central ideological plank. Yes, to an extent he is a useful idiot to people such as Barr, Pompeo (who is here in Copenhagen on Wed), and Stephen Miller, but it's also hard to overestimate the extent to he has captured the Republican Party and made them beholden to him. And I do think the federal thugs in Portland (and Chicago next) are there at Trump's behest.
Quote from: TobyD on July 20, 2020, 03:38:21 pmPost all the Guardian links you like (please don't... ) Trump will still be president in 2021. Is this some sort of psychological preparation so you can only be pleasantly surprised if he does lose? Or are you genuinely absolutely 100% convinced he won't?
Quote from: andy popp on July 20, 2020, 07:00:09 pmLess flippantly, I think Toby's absolute confidence that Trump will win in November is mistaken (caveat: as I've said many times, he may still win). He's looking more vulnerable than at any point and his every turn looks more ill-judged and less effective. There are obviously also a lot of unknowns in play, far more than normal, and his room for manoeuvre looks limited. The economy is not going to come roaring back, there isn't time, and judging from the huge surge in cases this month then deaths are going to look really bad in August. God knows what else what else may happen in the next three and a half months. There are few places left for him to hide. Caveat (just to be sure), he might well still win. At the same time I think it is wrong to dismiss him as incidental to current events. His racism is very real and strong enough to think white supremacy is now his central ideological plank. Yes, to an extent he is a useful idiot to people such as Barr, Pompeo (who is here in Copenhagen on Wed), and Stephen Miller, but it's also hard to overestimate the extent to he has captured the Republican Party and made them beholden to him. And I do think the federal thugs in Portland (and Chicago next) are there at Trump's behest.I wasn't necessarily saying he'd actually win the election, guaranteed he has people working on how to stay in power even if he does lose.
As an aside, I think it's certain he will lose the popular vote again
Come on Toby his ratings are poor in quite a few states he needs to win. If he does win (low probability in my view currently, as per our bet) it's unlikely the gap in the popular vote will be hugely different to that against Hillary.
I agree with all of that (including my absentmindedness about bets). Sure he has a chance, but he is simply nowhere near as likely to win this time. This is quite simply by far his biggest mountain yet. Covid is getting worse and he is directly responsible and worst still, attacking his chief public health advisor and the science. The economy is a mess and he promised a fast rebound from covid which has not happened. He hasn't delivered on his promises to most blue collar ex democrats who won him those key swing states by small margins. A lot of his strongest supporters in the last election and some he appointed and then sacked in government have been trashed by him, and many of them are speaking out against him, as some recent views being dangerous. The polls are far worse for him this time around and it's a simple fact that to win, his share of the popular vote can't shrink that much.. Fox News is pushing back against him. Twitter and Facebook are censoring him. He has pissed off many in the military by attacking well respected leaders. Well educated moderate metropolitan republicans are showing increasing concerns. Republican candidates in other 2020 elections are getting worried and some are starting to distance themselves. The Democrats have learnt from their mistakes last time and Clinton was much more disliked than Biden by centrists and had more serious skeletons. The key state demographics have shifted further towards Biden. The security services and big social media are watching closer for outside interference.On the plus side for him his base seems delighted but his base doesn't include those swing voters or those moderate metropolitan republicans who voted for him last time and need to this time.
What's scary to me is that he is still in the running for the election at all.Imagine how well a candidate might do with the same policies if they could find one who wasa) able to at least briefly pass for sane b) not obviously a crook c) able to get through a whole sentence
With Trump there's the added issue that pro-lifers / evangelicals etc might dislike him as a personality but still vote for him, feeling he is their best bet to get more conservative Justices into the Supreme Court. A Supreme Court appointment is for life and in a finely balanced court can have more profound and long-lasting influence than a President (some are more than 80 and Ruth Bader Ginsberg has announced she has cancer, so there could be openings in a few years).
Did you listen to Americast by any chance Luke?
Quote from: TobyD on July 24, 2020, 09:30:13 amDid you listen to Americast by any chance Luke? I did, and there have also been a lot of 538 articles and podcasts on thebalance of the Supreme Court e.g. this article on whether the swing Justice, Roberts, has become more liberal, or if the rest of the Court has moved rightwards around him (TR:DL - could be either or neither!).https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/roberts-is-the-new-swing-justice-that-doesnt-mean-hes-becoming-more-liberal/By the way, an interesting podcast on the history and pivotal cases of the Supreme Court is NPR / RadioLab's "More Perfect". I would ignore the most recent "Most Perfect Album" episodes and pick and choose from the earlier episodes. My favourites are "Gun Show", on how unimportant and marginal the 2nd amendment was until the 60/70s (the NRA only then made it a hobby horse in the wake of restrictions imposed to stop Black Panthers from bearing arms). And, "One Nation Under Money" on how a decision on whether a farmer could be penalised for growing wheat for his own use ended up being very far-reaching e.g. it was used to stop segregation in private businesses, which the Civil Rights Act was unable to do (the CRA stopped inequality by states, but at the time struggled against businesses / individuals).
The NRA is not as wealthy as it washttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/29/nra-financial-crisis-layoffs-furloughs