[TobyD]

It would be interesting to see a proper analysis of the scope of his vocabulary, which seems rather limited, shall we say.

Is this not a deliberate affectation to appeal to the masses?

No, I really think it represents his actual cognitive abilities.

I'd expect any political figure to be tailoring their accent, vocabulary, phrasing as well as every aspect of their appearance to appeal to potential voters. Until I saw trump in Ireland I'd have said that he probably was. However, if he's putting that on he's so far down the rabbit hole he might as well be a fucking set of dimly glowing synapses in a test tube, just about showing a distant glimmer of a suggestion of cognitive ability.

[moose]

I was listening to an interesting episode of the Illusionist podcast yesterday, which had an excerpt about identifying liars.  Supposedly, "expert" interrogators and polygraphs have, at best, around a 54% success rate at spotting lying i.e. barely better than a coin toss. 

What does work, with reportedly 85% accuracy, is to feed transcripts of interviews to an algorithm that compares the number of words said with the number of unique words used.  Liars tend to use markedly few unique words.  The computational demand of having to internally monitor what they say for consistency with past lies results in a restricted vocabulary. 

I suspect Trump is basically brain-addled but I do wonder if a contributory factor to his stumbling, repetitive speech patterns is that his brain is seizing up from the strain of continual lying.  His terrible interviews are then partly a manifestation of a glitched brain, grinding, sticking and skipping as it struggles to assess whether the planned sentence will give-away a past lie. 

That said, I suspect Trump is one of the (hopefully) few who cares so little about the truth and / or possibly believes his own bull-shit, that lying involves no internal strain whatsoever; he probably has the same relationship to the notion of truth as psychopaths have to the well-being of their fellows.

https://www.theallusionist.org/allusionist/criminallusionist?rq=criminallusionist

[Offwidth]

This one shouldn't be missed.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jun/07/trump-moon-is-part-of-mars-tweet-nasa

[TobyD]

This one shouldn't be missed.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jun/07/trump-moon-is-part-of-mars-tweet-nasa

Indeed. I see now that my previous assessment of a distant glimmer of cognitive ability was a massive over estimate and Trump really does have the intelligence of a toilet brush

[Offwidth]

Interesting piece on politics in a Pennsylvanian county, looking at the sort of issues involved in Trump's bid for relection in 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/09/will-trump-win-2020-voters-pennsylvania-county-indicator-chances

[mrjonathanr]

Given his consistently appalling syntax, it is quite possible the sentence references the moon as a part of the space project which includes Mars.

Presidents should be able to write comprehensible sentences though.

[andy popp]

Interesting piece on politics in a Pennsylvanian county, looking at the sort of issues involved in Trump's bid for relection in 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/09/will-trump-win-2020-voters-pennsylvania-county-indicator-chances

This is basically where I live - I'm in adjacent Lehigh County (which voted for Clinton) but the city I live in is contiguous with Bethlehem. The Guardian ran a series of articles from Northampton County over the year following the 2016 election, going back to speak to the same people, many of whom they speak to again for this piece. The series became increasingly frustrating: as it kept talking to the same handful of people, most of them white and older, it made it seem as though there was no change going on. It also failed to capture the complexity of the area.

Lehigh and Northampton counties are a contrasting mix of rural, suburban, and urban and that maps on to demographics. The rural areas and towns are overwhelming white and "Pennsylvania Dutch" - that is of German of ethnic origin (the Dutch is a corruption of Deutsch – the man with hat and beard pictured in the article looks like a classic “Dutchy”) - a distinct culture that is deeply rooted and naturally conservative. To give an example, gun rights are absolutely sacrosanct (hunting is so big here that schools close on the first day of hunting season in the fall), Many rural towns and villages, based either in farming or resource extraction (coal and slate) are really struggling, if not dying. These people feel embattled and are entrenched. There are pockets of difference - Stroudsberg in northern Northampton has become primarily hispanic in recent years - but by and large rural eastern PA voted Trump in 2016 and will do so again in 2020.

The suburbs are also largely white but much more affluent and growing apace, mainly through in migration - the whole Lehigh Valley offers a good and affordable standard of living as much of northern New Jersey, closer to NYC, becomes completely unobtainable (from Easton, east of Bethlehem, its possible to commute to NYC). I see some of this suburban life by taking my daughter to swim meets at surrounding country clubs, a world full of wealthy aspiration. American suburbia, particularly once summer arrives, can be deceptively seductive. It can seem that life is good and nothing is wrong with the world – it’s a bubble. You don't have to go downtown, you don't have to mix with people who don't look like you. It’s easy to be complacent, even as a Democrat. But these people are also college educated and might consider themselves small L liberal, even if they often vote Republican in the hope of tax cuts. There could be many critical swing votes here, especially among younger women.

But the cities - Allentown (the fastest growing city in the state) and Bethlehem - are very different. In particular they are majority minority (e.g. ethnic minorities together form the majority, Allentown is about 70% black and brown) and poor, in pockets extremely poor, and badly served - Allentown School District is an absolute crisis currently and the local criminal justice system is often highly racist. An attempt at regenerating the main street downtown, which 50 years ago was absolutely thriving, like main streets all over the country, has stalled, sucking tax dollars away from the city, and, in any case, completely ignored the needs or surrounding black and brown neighborhoods. The picture is a bit more mixed in Bethlehem, both demographically and economically. Both cities have significant but ageing groups of retired or redundant blue collar workers - again overwhelming white - who switched from Democrat to Republican in 2016 (accounting, no doubt, for the pick-ups with Trump stickers that are a common sight). But the issue among black and brown voters is one of disengagement, they rightly feel that no-one is much interested in their views or needs. Black voter turnout fell significantly here and nationally in 2016.

These articles from the Guardian have, I think, very largely failed to capture any of this; for example, I can't recall if they've ever spoken to someone of color. In speaking only to older, white (often rural) voters the series has fallen into the trap of thinking this is the "real" Pennsylvania - maybe it once was, but no longer. The Clinton campaign fell into a similar trap and lost the state by less than 1% - a few tens of thousands of votes. It assumed PA was already in the bag and did not campaign here - her first appearance in the state during the campaign was a rally in Philadelphia the night before the election (and the rally also took the form of what proved to be a very premature victory party). Trump came here time and time again and has continued to do so since the election. The article is right that there is an irreducible base for him, but I think there’s little chance to he can add many new voters. In other words, turn out is critical.

But Pennsylvania (along with Michigan and Wisconsin, which also flipped to Trump in 2016) are there for the taking by an energetic campaign on behalf of the right Democratic candidate. There's no doubt, for example, that many people would be receptive to a more radical message on healthcare. Personally, I think current frontrunner Joe Biden will repeat the same mistakes that Clinton did and will be mired in complacency and caution.

[mrjonathanr]

Interesting insight; thanks.

[tomtom]

Great post Andy. Thanks for taking the time to write that.

[TobyD]

Donald Trump attacks Sadiq Khan in tweets over deaths in London

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/16/trump-attacks-sadiq-khan-over-upsurge-in-london-violence?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

So there a major international crisis in the middle east,  a trade war with China and Trump is retweeting talentless pretend journalists like Hopkins.  Leader of the free world eh, what a  fucking joke.

[Offwidth]

Welcome to the kakistocracy!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/16/the-best-people-review-trump-swamp-cabinet

Plus an older review I had missed.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/02/siege-review-michael-wolff-trump-fire-and-fury

[TobyD]

Donald Trump wants to be a dictator. It’s not enough just to laugh at him

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/donald-trump-dictator-not-enough-laugh?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[andy popp]

Donald Trump wants to be a dictator. It’s not enough just to laugh at him

True, but laughing at him is also important and yesterday was the perfect opportunity.

[Oldmanmatt]

Donald Trump wants to be a dictator. It’s not enough just to laugh at him

True, but laughing at him is also important and yesterday was the perfect opportunity.

Bloody Colonials, putting thier grubby paws, all over His Majesty’s Airports...

[andy popp]

[Offwidth]

Kim "See: the more you crush, the more they bend"  DT "Hey, I like the blue ones but do they come in black and brown?"

Yet another book:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/13/american-carnage-review-tim-alberta-politico-trump-republicans

[Moo]

Whoever allowed that crumpled red ball to get in shot has probably been executed by now.

[andy popp]

In case anyone was in any doubt, Trump confirms his out and out racism.

[JamieG]

To be fair up til now, he had me conned with his subtle rhetoric and sophisticated use of the English language. 

[JamieG]

Thought this was very telling. Although as someone pointed out, he wouldn't be this polite and ask for permission.

[tomtom]

In case anyone was in any doubt, Trump confirms his out and out racism.

What is profoundly disturbing (to me) is that this is being 'gently' reported in the UK press in my view - no outright horror/outrage. Depressingly this leads me to wonder whether this is now being normalised which is a great danger....

edit - just seen the BBC etc.. and its reporting Theresa Mays 'utterly unaccpetable' response to Trumps words. Good.

[andy popp]

In case anyone was in any doubt, Trump confirms his out and out racism.

What is profoundly disturbing (to me) is that this is being 'gently' reported in the UK press in my view - no outright horror/outrage. Depressingly this leads me to wonder whether this is now being normalised which is a great danger....

edit - just seen the BBC etc.. and its reporting Theresa Mays 'utterly unaccpetable' response to Trumps words. Good.

Yes, the May response is something (though it could have been stronger in my view) and there have been good responses from others in Britain (Lammy, Khan) and across Europe.

But there has been total silence from senior Republicans; they either agree or are petrified of him. But yes, it is becoming normalised I think - or perhaps he is simply surfacing just how deeply racist America really is.

Of course, last night and this morning he has launched further vicious attacks on AOC and the others, claiming that it is they who are the racists.  Combined with today's move to make claiming asylum almost impossible at the southern border it is obvious that the election strategy is now set: crude, raw nativism and anti-migrant racism. There will be no attempt to expand appeal beyond the base.

[andy popp]

The other feeling today is one of low background dread. It feels like he might do anything at any moment.

[Teaboy]

The other feeling today is one of low background dread. It feels like he might do anything at any moment.

Well no one will stop him will they? You've probably seen the clip that has reemerged of Lindsay Graham calling him a vile racist in 2015 but is now one of his biggest cheer leaders. It's the same in this country, Amber Rudd has just come out for No Deal to curry favour with our next PM. It beggars belief. 

[al]

Andy, Just heard some audio from the greenville rally, feeling the dread for US (and us when johnson gets in)