[teestub]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Arkhipov

Arkhipov, there’s a Converge song called Arkhipov Calm

[Wil]

Radiolab made an interesting story about what happened to an Air Force Major who queried what would happen if he received the order from the president to fire nukes. What if he thought the president want in his right mind, or drunk? It turns out there isn't really a check and balance on it.

[Oldmanmatt]

Yep.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

Now imagine Trump in a similar position. How measured and rational is he likely to be?

We really are sailing on a ship of fools and he really holds the reigns. Someone further, up the thread, thought it was funny that we should be avidly discussing Trump and how odd it would be if some Yank climbing forum was discussing UK politics. Well, simply put, the UK could go bankrupt, fail as a state, and the world would shrug and trundle on. No one person has the capacity to order our Nuclear forces to launch, it’s actually quite likely that individual commanders would question any order recieved, particularly in a first strike scenario.
This is certainly not the case under the US system.

Still, as Pete says, it’s unlikely. However, plenty of other aspects of this will have negative connotations for us, as a nation.
If the UK takes a dump on the world’s lawn, it’s like an aged Bull dog letting go; if the US drops one, it’s a thousand strong herd of incontinent Bison tsunami.

[Oldmanmatt]

So...

While I was typing, Teestub even found another single person, who stopped Armageddon...

[Offwidth]

Merry Xmas Matt. Getting to read about two people who most probably saved the world  is much nicer than market crashes partly caused by presidential idiocy.

[andy popp]

What I'm worried about is the erosion of democracy, the damage to institutions and the degradation of civil society.

[petejh]

You need to read Black Swan... big terrible events being unlikely doesn't mean they can't happen and when you mulitply probability by consequence they become pretty important considerations.

I've read it.

Big terrible events are pretty important considerations? For who?! They might be an important consideration for a tiny number of people directly involved or who are genuinely able to influence events - that isn't anybody here. I'd argue events like that become considerations once they've happened.
I don't believe you or OMM go about your daily lives with a list of potential global terrible events taking up mental capacity as pretty important considerations. What could be gained from that? A (false) feeling of being in control or being important maybe. Actually maybe you do.. (joke, sort of).
I'm happy to mentally file under 'events I have zero control over and which are very unlikely; if they happen either I'll deal with or die/suffer hardship'.

What I'm worried about is the erosion of democracy, the damage to institutions and the degradation of civil society.

That's something I agree is worthwhile being concerned about.

Merry xmas

 

[Oldmanmatt]

An interesting piece, more a general insight into extremist ideology and populism at large, really.

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/following-trump-off-cliff-psychological-analysis-reveals-14-key-traits-explain-presidents-die-hard-supporters/

I guess I recognise some of those things in my own personality, which isn’t quite as Pete perceives it, certainly a greater threat awareness than is normal.
I think it has kept me alive in many instances and put me in leadership positions from an early age; where my superiors recognised it as “situational awareness”.

I certainly started out as a very conservative political personality, with a decidedly black and white view of the world, but somewhere in my military time that morphed into a yearning for justice and then, with experience, it’s shifted to “fairness”...

Oh, and big terrible events, too big to worry about, etc etc. Interesting point, made by someone who is every bit as reliable a contributor to this and similar threads, as myself; with a well informed opinion to share.

Almost as if he’d spent time, I don’t know, um... worrying about it?

[TobyD]

An interesting perspective, perhaps it should be in the Brexit thread but I liked the line in reference to Corbyn's 'jobs first Brexit' tripe, saying that you don't hear Nancy Pelosi advocating a 'migrants first wall'

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/04/democrats-battling-trump-brexit-labour

[Offwidth]

 The administration effect on Science.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/16/trumps-war-on-science-how-the-us-is-putting-politics-above-evidence

[andy popp]

I should try and write something really, but I don't even know where to begin.

[Oldmanmatt]

I should try and write something really, but I don't even know where to begin.

Relax, have a Hamberder, and try again...

[andy popp]

Nothing like a nice fresh indictment to kick the weekend off.

[Teaboy]

Yeah, might not be Trump's best idea to stop paying the FBI, it's only going to annoy them!

[Falling Down]

Roger Stone - glorious!

[andy popp]

Roger Stone - glorious!

I literally punched the air.

[andy popp]

Oh, double joy! Utter humiliation over the wall/shutdown to end the day.

[Oldmanmatt]

And, the “High ranking Trump campaign official” mentioned in the indictment has since been named a Bannon.

[TobyD]

A tweet from Robert Reich:

Conversation
Robert Reich
Robert Reich
@RBReich
The Art of the Shutdown:
1) Generate crisis at the border, deploying troops.
2) Back out of a deal, shutting down the govt.
3) Spread lies on national TV, stoking fear.
4) Throw tantrum.
5) Ask for less funding.
6) Get nothing.
7) Declare victory

[andy popp]

He lost so heavily yesterday, a complete defeat driven by his ego, hubris, and incompetence. There is nothing he can salvage from it. This, more than Mueller, could be the final nail in his presidency.

[Oldmanmatt]

This, in the end, is aimed at the President. Definitely worth watching and I think I like this woman.
I don’t recall saying that about a politician, before.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/8/18216884/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-video-campaign-finance

[TobyD]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/matthew-whitakers-five-minutes-are-up/2019/02/08/ffdeb8e6-2bed-11e9-984d-9b8fba003e81_story.html?utm_term=.dbd76ff8275b

An amusing critique of the acting Attorney General and a nice exposition of the kind of people whom Trump is happy to hire to senior administrative positions.

[andy popp]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/matthew-whitakers-five-minutes-are-up/2019/02/08/ffdeb8e6-2bed-11e9-984d-9b8fba003e81_story.html?utm_term=.dbd76ff8275b

An amusing critique of the acting Attorney General and a nice exposition of the kind of people whom Trump is happy to hire to senior administrative positions.

Whitaker is a complete joke - how he ever ended up in charge of the DoJ, even temporarily, is completely mind boggling.

[TobyD]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-s-word-will-scupper-democrats-2020-hopes-wfhfv7kh3

A very convincing argument of why Trump, as things stand, is pretty much guaranteed a second term. Well argued, evidenced, and profoundly depressing.

[andy popp]

I can't read it (paywalled) but I'm sceptical about Ferguson - that's not to say Trump can't win a second term though.