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U-S-A! The American Politics Thread. (Read 499891 times)

Oldmanmatt

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#725 Re: Trump
July 20, 2018, 12:41:29 pm
I have some experience of living in Eastern Europe and Romania in particular, but Russia itself remains a mystery to me; so whilst I recognise elements of this version of reality, I can’t say “ah ha! That’s it”:

https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat?mbid=social_facebook

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#726 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 08:45:18 am
It really is a travesty of justice that a sitting president cannot be criminally indited, as well as the Cohen / Manafort connection, this barely makes the news in the uk as far as I'm aware.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/08/21/trump-must-face-claims-of-assault-on-mexican-protesters-judge-says/?utm_term=.8ba8c2f3c80b

Oldmanmatt

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#727 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 10:56:48 am
The Teflon-Don.

He’s not going anywhere.
We keep talking about the Russian “Kompromat” on him and no one ever speculates about all his GOP supporters in the top echelons of the party and both Houses; that seem to be unable to see anything negative in the man...

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#728 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 11:04:04 am
I suspect the GOP sees the negatives in the man, but they don't care.  He gave them a tax cut and is repealing environmental protections, which keeps the party donors happy; and he has an unassailable base of voters who like racism.

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#729 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 12:23:46 pm
He is now a named if unindicted co-conspirator in guilty plea accepted by the court. As Cohen's lawyer said yesterday, if Michael's a criminal then so is Trump - and Michael most certainly is. The offence is very serious and should lead to impeachment, but won't, because the Republicans control all three branches of the executive - for now - and are overwhelmingly still willing to tolerate Trump, as statements on behalf of people such as House leader Paul Ryan made very clear yesterday. Many in the GOP can see him for exactly what he is but are able to hold their noses so long as his Presidency is giving them what they want (as Moose says, tax cuts and repeal of regulations, plus conservative Supreme Court nominees - the latter are literally the only thing that many highly motivated Christian voters care about) but that could change if they perceive he is becoming a liability; the test for that will the mid-terms on November 6th, and those remain very unpredictable. Personally, I am not convinced we will see the "Blue Wave" many Democrats believe is coming.

Democratic voters will undoubtedly be highly motivated in November and we will see some surprises - currently even Ted Cruz's seat in Texas is in play. The unknown is Republican voters: will they be motivated to defend the presidency against the "libtards" (the base view this in apocalyptic terms, a fight for America's soul) or will they be demoralised or even, in some cases, repulsed. Everyone talks about the base - I'm taking that as shorthand for the MAGA hat wearing, rally attending diehards. They are very real - I could easily find one to argue with online everyday among the friends and family of my US friends on FB - and they remain utterly committed, loyal, and motivated, as we have seen in countless Republican primaries this year when moderate incumbents who have been critical of or even just lukewarm about Trump have lost to often lunatic but sycophantic challengers. The only way to win GOP primaries this year has been to worship Trump. But the base alone did not elect Trump and is not enough alone to keep control in November. Educated whites, women especially, and traditional country club republicans have to be kept onboard in order for the GOP to survive November. How many of them have now had enough? Despite what I said earlier about the Blue Wave, the house is definitely in play, Senate too possibly. If either/both come to pass we will see impeachment proceedings launched (that they won't be before will remain a stain on the GOP forever).

But make mistake about a couple of things:
  - yesterday inflicted a real and serious wound on the President
  - Mueller is very far from done

Oldmanmatt

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#730 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 04:57:28 pm
Andy, did you watch Maddow?
I just got in from a day’s MTB with kids, to a message from a friend in CA, with this link, the words “Go to 27:00, you’ll shit yourself” and a long stream of laughing emojis.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=lAfepdG1arU

How is this guy still there?
How much more of a direct accusation could anyone make?

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#731 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 05:34:36 pm
Andy, did you watch Maddow?
I just got in from a day’s MTB with kids, to a message from a friend in CA, with this link, the words “Go to 27:00, you’ll shit yourself” and a long stream of laughing emojis.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=lAfepdG1arU

How is this guy still there?
How much more of a direct accusation could anyone make?

No, we watch very little TV - Seth Myers when we can.

How he's still there? See above: the Republicans are either craven cowards; ideological zealots; greedy; or flat out crazy themselves. For now, Trump is their useful idiots and there no other levers (until the elections in November anyway).

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#732 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 05:53:42 pm
This I don’t get.
Useful idiot? Ok, perhaps, but...

Pence is highly unlikely to roll back Trumps tax plan, it’s mostly his and the GOP’s plan anyway. I’m not convinced Trump could tie his own shoelaces.

Supreme Court Justices? Pence is already picking them, surely? Trump is a rubber stamp.

“President Pence” would lick all the GOP’s wet dream fantasies, without the potential long term damage of propping up a Felon.
They must have worked that out and yet on they plow.

Why?

There has to be something that makes all the self harm worthwhile and I can’t believe it’s his “base”. They stand to lose the support of every honest Rep.
Plenty of Republicans are straight up, law abiding, moralistic, conservatives; who deeply believe in their sense of right and wrong. Eventually, the taste of Trump, will catch in their craw, if hasn’t already.
Conservative and Honest are not mutually exclusive concepts, regardless of how us “Libtards” might convince ourselves they are...

Edit:

Aaaaannnd....
The longer Trump continues, the more likely Pence is to be brought down with him. As it stands, he still commands enough moral integrity (in appearance, at least) to take up the reins. Much longer and so much of Trump’s turd polish will rub off on him, rolling him in glitter won’t help.

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#733 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 06:44:42 pm
Yes, Pence would be even more useful to the zealots - however, the simple fact is that it was Trump, and not Pence, who won the presidential election (I doubt Pence could have won it as nominee for the Presidency). A palace coup now against Trump would risk the ire of grassroots activists and the wider base, where Trump continues to command huge loyalty. There would be a huge risk in trying to get rid of Trump right now. Besides, it may not even be possible to bail now, they are tied to Trump, sink or swim, not least because its possible the whole election/administration faces delegitimisation, not just Trump. Pence surely knows that and must be hedging his bets, trying to read which way the wind is blowing.

As to decent conservatives, yes, they exist. But the depth of divisions in the country, the so-called culture wars, are blinding people to thought and rationality: witness the absolutely unyielding support for Trump from evangelical Christians (he holds out the promise of repealing Roe vs Wade and for that they will do anything).

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#734 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 07:00:41 pm
I really didn’t think it was possible to unseat him, but it’s looking as if Cohen is either about to have an “accident” or Mr Pee Pee is going to have a stroke. Life being a random pile of shite, who can say which of those things might be the more “accidental”, in light of how convenient they would both be...

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/22/640795902/michael-cohens-lawyer-says-hed-never-accept-a-pardon-from-president-trump?t=1534960279752

I strongly suspect my Californian friend Dwight, Un-reconstituted hippy that he is, is fair quivering in his seat this night...

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#735 Re: Trump
August 22, 2018, 08:09:05 pm
Honestly, I have to sit in at work to cover the desk during youth squad training for a couple hours (bloody staff holidays, roll on Brexit, no more rights for plebs...) giving me a rare moment to actually read the news during a school holiday.
So many little nuggets hidden at the bottom of so many articles, almost as if they know what’s coming, but just can’t paste it into the headline box yet.

Like this one in the Guardian:


Only Mueller and his team know what’s coming next. In one of the lesser news lines Tuesday, Mueller and the legal team for Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, agreed to put off Flynn’s sentencing owing to his ongoing participation in open investigations.”

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#736 Re: Trump
August 23, 2018, 08:41:34 am
Mueller knows everything.

It’s why they’re trying to rush Kavannagh’s appointment to the bench through so if and when this ends up in front of the SC the GOP can control the outcome.  Nunes was caught on tape at a fundraiser pretty much laying it out.

I read a great book last week called “Everything Trump Touches Dies” by Rick Wilson a never-Trump republican whom I’ve followed on Twitter for a while.   It’s good.

Let’s see what the rest of this week brings!



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#737 Re: Trump
August 23, 2018, 09:35:00 am
Skype call with some Australian co workers this morning - sounds like a right mess over there as well...

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#738 Re: Trump
August 23, 2018, 10:43:52 am
I'd love to see him get sent down. In fact, I'd love it if, in the annals of history, Trump was colloquially referred to as "head of the Trump crime family". However something tells me it's not going to happen, or at least, won't happen for many years. I can't even see him getting impeached.

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#739 Re: Trump
August 23, 2018, 01:57:55 pm
I read a great book last week called “Everything Trump Touches Dies” by Rick Wilson a never-Trump republican whom I’ve followed on Twitter for a while.   It’s good.
I read a great book last week called “Everything Trump Touches Dies” by Rick Wilson a never-Trump republican whom I’ve followed on Twitter for a while.   It’s good.

Probably my favourite anti-Trump voice is arch conservative Jennifer Rubin in the Washington Post; I would never listen to her on policy or what the Democrats should do but on Trump she is scathing, forensic and all the more powerful because she's Republican through and through.

I haven't read any books on Trump - its hard to imagine getting enough perspective when we're still in the middle of the maelstrom.

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#740 Re: Trump
August 23, 2018, 02:40:17 pm
GOP =  :tumble:

Sadly, Dems also =  :tumble:

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#741 Re: Trump
August 23, 2018, 07:48:15 pm
Andy, I took out a Wapo Digital subscription the week he was elected.  Got fed up of only being able to read 5 articles a month.  I must have read it more than any other paper since Nov '16.

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#742 Re: Trump
August 24, 2018, 10:41:48 am
Andy, I took out a Wapo Digital subscription the week he was elected.  Got fed up of only being able to read 5 articles a month.  I must have read it more than any other paper since Nov '16.

Ditto, the same week

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#743 Re: Trump
August 24, 2018, 12:00:21 pm
I'd love to see him get sent down. In fact, I'd love it if, in the annals of history, Trump was colloquially referred to as "head of the Trump crime family". However something tells me it's not going to happen, or at least, won't happen for many years. I can't even see him getting impeached.

Meanwhile, the whistle blower on the whole Russian vote rigging gets to sit in jail for 5 years ..  :'(

http://www2.philly.com/philly/columnists/will_bunch/free-reality-winner-whistleblower-american-hero-20180724.html



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#744 Re: Trump
August 24, 2018, 04:04:15 pm
Andy, I took out a Wapo Digital subscription the week he was elected.  Got fed up of only being able to read 5 articles a month.  I must have read it more than any other paper since Nov '16.

I did exactly the same  ;D

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#745 Re: Trump
August 24, 2018, 05:35:05 pm
Well, looks like “Big Newspaper” doesn’t want this to end...

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#746 Re: Trump
September 22, 2018, 04:15:49 pm
A new book including interesting and scary stuff on the transition.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/sep/22/michael-lewis-trump-gambling-america

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