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U-S-A! The American Politics Thread. (Read 499984 times)

remus

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#2450 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 02, 2021, 11:10:22 am
The population size is irrelevant when judging if a sample is large enough if the sample is a small proportion of the population, as I am sure you all know. Two and a half thousand is a large, expensive survey if they used live interviews.

A little caveat, though it's not really relevant here as it's not practical to sample a meaningful proportion of the total population of the US here.

duncan

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#2451 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 02, 2021, 12:16:58 pm
The full survey results. Details of the methodology at the very end. It seems to be pretty robust.

30% is surely credible. This is in a country born through violent revolt against the (British) government and whose quintessential cultural form, the Western, frequently involves people taking the law into their own hands, the state being corrupt or absent or both.
 

seankenny

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#2452 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 02, 2021, 01:03:05 pm
This is an interesting discussion on the prospects for civil war in the US:
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/will-the-us-have-another-civil-war

The 30% figure is troubling but I suspect it's a violent fantasty for most. My partner and many of my in-laws lived through an actual civil war; even after accounting for the killings, bombings and all the horror, it's just a lot of day-to-day hassle. Arbitrary lock-downs, check points, curfews, a crappy economy, I just can't see your average modern American being up for that. (I think it's a lot different in more starkly winner takes all political systems where patronage really is a route out of poverty for many people.)

teestub

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#2453 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 02, 2021, 08:57:06 pm

The 30% figure is troubling but I suspect it's a violent fantasty for most. My partner and many of my in-laws lived through an actual civil war; even after accounting for the killings, bombings and all the horror, it's just a lot of day-to-day hassle. Arbitrary lock-downs, check points, curfews, a crappy economy, I just can't see your average modern American being up for that.

Obviously have no direct experience, but I get the idea that the additional life admin it may cause is not front and centre in the thinking of those planning a coup.

jwi

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#2454 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 02, 2021, 09:05:33 pm
I have the impression that people keen to take to arms are more often righteous than rational.

andy popp

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#2455 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 03, 2021, 06:24:30 am
The result in the Governors race in Virgnina (and possibly also in NJ) does not bode well for the Democrats in the mid-terms in 2022 - to put it mildly. No doubt other shifts played their part, but there was a dramatic swing from Dem to Rep among white women, AKA "moms." The race became centred on a confected but very effective moral panic over books and CRT in schools. Expect much more of this to come. A friend sits on the school board of a small town/rural PA school board. They've managed to keep the schools open during the pandemic, get good results, and - needless to say - don't promote/teach CRT and yet our friend, a moderate, centrist liberal, has been harangued and harassed, followed to his car by mobs following meetings, accused of being a paedophile, and received threats, all for trying to carry out some public service. The campaign against the current school board is financed by murky outside money.

Biden is already stymied by his tenuous hold on Congress (and by the showboating of Manchin and Systema. And his own missteps, it must be admitted). Loss of control in 2022 would pave the way to Republican presidential victory in 2024.

TobyD

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#2456 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 03, 2021, 07:33:37 am
The result in the Governors race in Virgnina (and possibly also in NJ) does not bode well for the Democrats in the mid-terms in 2022 - to put it mildly. No doubt other shifts played their part, but there was a dramatic swing from Dem to Rep among white women, AKA "moms." The race became centred on a confected but very effective moral panic over books and CRT in schools. Expect much more of this to come. A friend sits on the school board of a small town/rural PA school board. They've managed to keep the schools open during the pandemic, get good results, and - needless to say - don't promote/teach CRT and yet our friend, a moderate, centrist liberal, has been harangued and harassed, followed to his car by mobs following meetings, accused of being a paedophile, and received threats, all for trying to carry out some public service. The campaign against the current school board is financed by murky outside money.

Biden is already stymied by his tenuous hold on Congress (and by the showboating of Manchin and Systema. And his own missteps, it must be admitted). Loss of control in 2022 would pave the way to Republican presidential victory in 2024.

I think that positive results for the Republican party in Congress are likely to embolden Trump to run again. Ultimately if it's him or an acolyte it's potentially very bad news for the whole world.
Indirectly as well as directly, giving other unpleasant populists an excuse to behave as they like.

seankenny

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#2457 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 03, 2021, 10:51:56 am
I have the impression that people keen to take to arms are more often righteous than rational.

I think that when large numbers of people take up arms in rebellion against the state they tend to have been both locked out of political power and suffer economic pain as a result. Catholics in Northern Ireland, Sri Lankan Tamils, Bangladeshis in East Pakistan - all suffered discrimination on those two axes. The other thing is that doing this on any kind of large scale requires some collective action and the last 18 months have shown that modern America just isn't that good at collective action.

A coup? Yeah, could see that. A Putinesque style "managed democracy" strikes me as very likely, but with a lot of political violence from small fringe groups rather than large organised ones. But who knows? More important to me is that Europeans start engaging seriously with the possibility that the US will no longer be a full democracy and what that means for us.

This was interesting reading:
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-initiative-explores-deep-persistent-divides-between-biden-and-trump-voters/

andy popp

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#2458 Re: U-S-A! The American Politics Thread.
November 03, 2021, 12:27:49 pm
A friend sits on the school board of a small town/rural PA school board. They've managed to keep the schools open during the pandemic, get good results, and - needless to say - don't promote/teach CRT and yet our friend, a moderate, centrist liberal, has been harangued and harassed, followed to his car by mobs following meetings, accused of being a paedophile, and received threats, all for trying to carry out some public service. The campaign against the current school board is financed by murky outside money.

Said friend just posted about last night's election for his school board (he was not running again himself). In his words: a "well-timed text/robocall blast with explicit threats about a gay agenda fueled by outside megadonor cash," whipping up fear about books that simply weren't in the school system, succeeded in getting three "extremists" (again, his word) on the school board. In some ways, these grass roots stories, if they're happening in enough places, are as important as the headlines.


andy popp

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The leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court revealing that the justices have now settled on overturning Roe vs. Wade is not completely unexpected but is still utterly dismaying.

The US slips further into deepening illiberalism. Protestations that this decision relates only to abortion are worthless. They will be coming for marriage equality next.

Will Hunt

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Admittedly I haven't read anything about this, but does this remove a federal right to have an abortion, but leave it for states to legislate independently; or is it a complete ban on abortions across all states?

andy popp

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It removes federal protection and will leave it to states, many of whom have been busy preparing legislation in anticipation of this day. We already know that in many cases abortion will be effectively criminalised (e.g. there will be no exemptions for rape, for example).

TobyD

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Admittedly I haven't read anything about this, but does this remove a federal right to have an abortion, but leave it for states to legislate independently; or is it a complete ban on abortions across all states?

UK news sources seem confused about the distinction as well, to be honest. 
This is the original story on politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473

It seems as though this ruling would remove the federal guarantee,  and it would then be up to states individually whether to overturn it, unless I've misunderstood. 

mrjonathanr

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Roe v Wade enshrined a right, this will remove it.

Quote from:  Guardian
Politico quoted Alito as saying: “Roe was egregiously wrong from the start. Its reasoning was exceptionally weak, and the decision has had damaging consequences. And far from bringing about a national settlement of the abortion issue, Roe and Casey have enflamed debate and deepened division.”

The justice adds: “We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled. It is time to heed the constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”

SA Chris

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You can guess where the split will go between those that choose to overrule and those that don't.

andy popp

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Just a clarification, if this decision goes forward (and there seems little reason to doubt it will) then RvW will have been overturned. States won't need to overturn it themselves but will, rather, be freed to set abortion laws as they see fit.

Overturning Obergefell, which protects marriage equality, will be next in their sights.


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As horrendous as these developments are, it's worth remembering that abortion was only legalised in Northern Ireland in October 2019. Currently, to date the Northern Ireland executive has failed to actually commission abortion services. It's pretty staggering really that in 2022 there isn't actually proper access to abortion services in the whole of the UK.

Paul B

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JamieG

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I realise this isn't why the right wing are after Roe Vs Wade, but criminalising abortions doesn't even decrease them! It just forces it underground, where it is more risky. If they really wanted to cut back abortions, they would massively invest in sex education and family plan. But that's not the point, its a culture war and meant to punish a certain type of woman.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/11/criminalising-abortion-does-not-cut-number-of-terminations-says-study

(The same is true for drugs, decriminalising and providing education and healthcare to addicts is massively more effective than punitive measures!)

mrjonathanr

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If they really wanted to cut back abortions, they would massively invest in sex education and family plan. But that's not the point, its a culture war and meant to punish a certain type of woman.


The type with ovaries, I expect.

JamieG

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If they really wanted to cut back abortions, they would massively invest in sex education and family plan. But that's not the point, its a culture war and meant to punish a certain type of woman.


The type with ovaries, I expect.

You'd think that wouldn't you. But there are definitely woman out there that are all for this and then complain when they are mistreated by right wing men.

https://www.salon.com/2017/12/04/alt-right-women-are-upset-that-alt-right-men-are-treating-them-terribly/

It would be funny if it wasn't so depressing.

mrjonathanr

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Good point Paul, it’s sloppy language. ‘Legally mandated’ would be too strong and purposive. ‘Confirmed the right to’ maybe?
Jamie: haters gotta hate…

TobyD

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I realise this isn't why the right wing are after Roe Vs Wade, but criminalising abortions doesn't even decrease them! It just forces it underground, where it is more risky. If they really wanted to cut back abortions, they would massively invest in sex education and family plan. But that's not the point, its a culture war and meant to punish a certain type of woman.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/11/criminalising-abortion-does-not-cut-number-of-terminations-says-study

(The same is true for drugs, decriminalising and providing education and healthcare to addicts is massively more effective than punitive measures!)

The enthusiasm of the Republican party for overturning Roe vs Wade is also significantly due to being able to command the evangelical votes. I can't imagine that the likes of Trump actually give anything like abortion very much thought, except as a tool for leveraging a few more votes. I'm sure the same is true of his support for Israel. (NB I'm not opining on the right or wrong of supporting Israel, just that Trump just uses it for votes).

Johnny Brown

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It doesn't help much with where things are, but Jon Ronson's 'Things Fell Apart' podcast has a fascinating episode on the origins of the anti-abortion movement: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0011cpq

 

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