[ali k]

Post all the Guardian links you like (please don't...  ) Trump will still be president in 2021.

Is this some sort of psychological preparation so you can only be pleasantly surprised if he does lose? Or are you genuinely absolutely 100% convinced he won't?

[andy popp]

Unless he drops dead/resigns it is absolutely certain Trump will be President in 2021 as the inauguration is not until Wednesday January 20th.

[andy popp]

Less flippantly, I think Toby's absolute confidence that Trump will win in November is mistaken (caveat: as I've said many times, he may still win). He's looking more vulnerable than at any point and his every turn looks more ill-judged and less effective. There are obviously also a lot of unknowns in play, far more than normal, and his room for manoeuvre looks limited. The economy is not going to come roaring back, there isn't time, and judging from the huge surge in cases this month then deaths are going to look really bad in August. God knows what else what else may happen in the next three and a half months. There are few places left for him to hide. Caveat (just to be sure), he might well still win.

At the same time I think it is wrong to dismiss him as incidental to current events. His racism is very real and strong enough to think white supremacy is now his central ideological plank. Yes, to an extent he is a useful idiot to people such as Barr, Pompeo (who is here in Copenhagen on Wed), and Stephen Miller, but it's also hard to overestimate the extent to he has captured the Republican Party and made them beholden to him. And I do think the federal thugs in Portland (and Chicago next) are there at Trump's behest.

[mrjonathanr]

You can add voter suppression, Kanye West and any number of executive ordered shockers into the volatile mix.

[TobyD]

Less flippantly, I think Toby's absolute confidence that Trump will win in November is mistaken (caveat: as I've said many times, he may still win). He's looking more vulnerable than at any point and his every turn looks more ill-judged and less effective. There are obviously also a lot of unknowns in play, far more than normal, and his room for manoeuvre looks limited. The economy is not going to come roaring back, there isn't time, and judging from the huge surge in cases this month then deaths are going to look really bad in August. God knows what else what else may happen in the next three and a half months. There are few places left for him to hide. Caveat (just to be sure), he might well still win.

At the same time I think it is wrong to dismiss him as incidental to current events. His racism is very real and strong enough to think white supremacy is now his central ideological plank. Yes, to an extent he is a useful idiot to people such as Barr, Pompeo (who is here in Copenhagen on Wed), and Stephen Miller, but it's also hard to overestimate the extent to he has captured the Republican Party and made them beholden to him. And I do think the federal thugs in Portland (and Chicago next) are there at Trump's behest.

I wasn't necessarily saying he'd actually win the election, guaranteed he has people working on how to stay in power even if he does lose. Interesting points you make, but as I said above I don't think he really has an idealogy. He is certainly a racist but I see it as more of a casual racism of blind prejudice and ignorance rather than a thought process; I really don't think he has that much intelligence.
I don't think he's incidental but he seems far more interested in himself than he is in advancing an idealogy, in the way that Orban is doing in Hungary.

[TobyD]

Post all the Guardian links you like (please don't...  ) Trump will still be president in 2021.

Is this some sort of psychological preparation so you can only be pleasantly surprised if he does lose? Or are you genuinely absolutely 100% convinced he won't?

On the first question, yes, partially.
On the second, I think it's still his to lose.

[andy popp]

Less flippantly, I think Toby's absolute confidence that Trump will win in November is mistaken (caveat: as I've said many times, he may still win). He's looking more vulnerable than at any point and his every turn looks more ill-judged and less effective. There are obviously also a lot of unknowns in play, far more than normal, and his room for manoeuvre looks limited. The economy is not going to come roaring back, there isn't time, and judging from the huge surge in cases this month then deaths are going to look really bad in August. God knows what else what else may happen in the next three and a half months. There are few places left for him to hide. Caveat (just to be sure), he might well still win.

At the same time I think it is wrong to dismiss him as incidental to current events. His racism is very real and strong enough to think white supremacy is now his central ideological plank. Yes, to an extent he is a useful idiot to people such as Barr, Pompeo (who is here in Copenhagen on Wed), and Stephen Miller, but it's also hard to overestimate the extent to he has captured the Republican Party and made them beholden to him. And I do think the federal thugs in Portland (and Chicago next) are there at Trump's behest.

I wasn't necessarily saying he'd actually win the election, guaranteed he has people working on how to stay in power even if he does lose.

Thanks Toby, I understand better what you meant now and can definitely see your point. I still don't think it's guaranteed he will be able to keep himself in power. I see two possibilities. Voter suppression will undoubtedly occur and there will be every attempt to leverage that as much as possible. The other is incompetence leading to chaos; numerous times this year (in primaries) the US has shown itself incapable of running orderly, well-regulated elections. There have been many chaotic scenes at polling stations and extremely delayed results. The pandemic has exposed a lot of inadequacies in many basic American institutions. There's going to be huge pressure on the US postal service, which is already struggling, as mail in ballots increase dramatically, which is of course why Trump constantly attacks both mail-ins and the USPS. Unless there is a landslide, I would be amazed if we wake up to a clear result on the morning after election day; there could be weeks of wrangling, misinformation, court cases etc. As an aside, I think it's certain he will lose the popular vote again

[TobyD]

As an aside, I think it's certain he will lose the popular vote again

Definitely agree. His ratings are abysmal.
I'd guess he could try to declare the result invalid claiming postal voting fraud, and declare a state of emergency or something.

[SA Chris]

Or delay the election due to pandemic, and hope people forget the disaster if the economy starts to recover.

[Offwidth]

Come on Toby his ratings are poor in quite a few states he needs to win. If he does win (low probability in my view currently, as per our bet) it's unlikely the gap in the popular vote will be hugely different to that against Hillary.

[TobyD]

Come on Toby his ratings are poor in quite a few states he needs to win. If he does win (low probability in my view currently, as per our bet) it's unlikely the gap in the popular vote will be hugely different to that against Hillary.

I thought I bet you about Rishi Sunak not Trump?

Several elections have been won without carrying the popular vote. He's now counting on people having very short attention spans and getting a little more serious about the pandemic, I think he might be being fairly cunning here. As Johnson proved here you can make a total clusterfuck of everything 6 months before an election, then fight a well managed campaign and win easily.
I seriously hope that he fails dismally (Trump) but I think if you listen to John Sopels excellent commentary on him on the BBC, he's certainly not where he'd like to be, but he has a history of defying expectations and fighting dirty to get his way.

[Offwidth]

I agree with all of that (including my absentmindedness about bets). Sure he has a chance, but he is simply nowhere near as likely to win this time.

This is quite simply by far his biggest mountain yet. Covid is getting worse and he is directly responsible and worst still, attacking his chief public health advisor and the science. The economy is a mess and he promised a fast rebound from covid which has not happened. He hasn't delivered on his promises to most blue collar ex democrats who won him those key swing states by small margins. A lot of his strongest supporters in the last election and some he appointed and then sacked in government have been trashed by him, and many of them are speaking out against him, as some recent views being dangerous. The polls are far worse for him this time around and it's a simple fact that to win, his share of the popular vote can't shrink that much.. Fox News is pushing back against him. Twitter and Facebook are censoring him. He has pissed off many in the military by attacking well respected leaders. Well educated moderate metropolitan republicans are showing increasing concerns. Republican candidates in other 2020 elections are getting worried and some are starting to distance themselves. The Democrats have learnt from their mistakes last time and Clinton was much more disliked than Biden by centrists and had more serious skeletons. The key state demographics have shifted further towards Biden. The security services and big social media are watching closer for outside interference.

On the plus side for him his base seems delighted but his base doesn't include those swing voters or those moderate metropolitan republicans who voted for him last time and need to this time.

[TobyD]

I agree with all of that (including my absentmindedness about bets). Sure he has a chance, but he is simply nowhere near as likely to win this time.

This is quite simply by far his biggest mountain yet. Covid is getting worse and he is directly responsible and worst still, attacking his chief public health advisor and the science. The economy is a mess and he promised a fast rebound from covid which has not happened. He hasn't delivered on his promises to most blue collar ex democrats who won him those key swing states by small margins. A lot of his strongest supporters in the last election and some he appointed and then sacked in government have been trashed by him, and many of them are speaking out against him, as some recent views being dangerous. The polls are far worse for him this time around and it's a simple fact that to win, his share of the popular vote can't shrink that much.. Fox News is pushing back against him. Twitter and Facebook are censoring him. He has pissed off many in the military by attacking well respected leaders. Well educated moderate metropolitan republicans are showing increasing concerns. Republican candidates in other 2020 elections are getting worried and some are starting to distance themselves. The Democrats have learnt from their mistakes last time and Clinton was much more disliked than Biden by centrists and had more serious skeletons. The key state demographics have shifted further towards Biden. The security services and big social media are watching closer for outside interference.

On the plus side for him his base seems delighted but his base doesn't include those swing voters or those moderate metropolitan republicans who voted for him last time and need to this time.

Ok, BUT, Biden is a weak candidate ultimately,  although I don't think he's a bad one personally.  He's known for gaffes and incoherence like Trump. It's true that its easy to think from Europe that hes got it sewn up but the economy could well just recover enough for Trump to keep enough people happy and see him through.  All the internal politics and people who hate Trump don't really matter, they all hated him in 2016 as well.

[Offwidth]

His own team hated him back then?

https://mobile.twitter.com/scaramucci/status/1286142041446133761

[Wil]

Maybe I shouldn't, but I find this intriguing. Trump seems proud that he can pass a simple test for early stage dementia.

Of course, Trump likes to harp on about how intelligent he is, but does he genuinely not realise this is a basic test of cognitive health and nothing to do with intelligence? It's come up several times now, and he keeps doubling down on how impressed doctors are that anybody can do this. My favourite feature is his inability to understand that the 5 words in the test are deliberately not connected (Face, Velvet, Church, Daisy, Red) while his 5 are all just things he can see in the room.

[Will Hunt]

https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1281631729409822722

[i.munro]

What's scary to me is that he is still in the running for the election at all.
Imagine how well a candidate might do with the same policies if they could find one who was
a) able to at least briefly pass for sane b) not obviously a crook c) able to get through a whole sentence

[TobyD]

What's scary to me is that he is still in the running for the election at all.
Imagine how well a candidate might do with the same policies if they could find one who was
a) able to at least briefly pass for sane b) not obviously a crook c) able to get through a whole sentence

What's more concerning is that actually none of these things matter. Populist leaders (or often their advisors or backers) the world over have cottoned on the fact that if you have an entertaining media profile, do a few things to keep them happy and make them laugh then all of the rest of the business of intelligent decision making under pressure, an ability to negotiate or martial a vast range of facts, briefs and competing priorities might be necessary for being a very good leader, but are unnecessary for winning elections.

Our own Johnson is actually a rather poor opinion columnist, obviously a crook, an acknowledged serial liar and lazy academic underachiever but millions voted for him.

[moose]

With Trump there's the added issue that pro-lifers / evangelicals etc might dislike him as a personality but still vote for him, feeling he is their best bet to get more conservative Justices into the Supreme Court.  A Supreme Court appointment is for life and in a finely balanced court can have more profound and long-lasting influence than a President (some are more than 80 and Ruth Bader Ginsberg has announced she has cancer, so there could be openings in a few years).

[TobyD]

With Trump there's the added issue that pro-lifers / evangelicals etc might dislike him as a personality but still vote for him, feeling he is their best bet to get more conservative Justices into the Supreme Court.  A Supreme Court appointment is for life and in a finely balanced court can have more profound and long-lasting influence than a President (some are more than 80 and Ruth Bader Ginsberg has announced she has cancer, so there could be openings in a few years).

Did you listen to Americast by any chance Luke? It is a good point though; the bizarre system of presidential appointment of supreme court judges is one reason that Trump will carry a lot of conservative votes however stupid,  crass and incompetent he is. They care more about abortion rights, gay rights etc (or about curtailing them) than they do about all the rest of politics, and the supreme court decides on most of these issues.

[Offwidth]

All well and good but they were never going to vote for Biden anyhow. They don't determine swing states (other than losing faith in the orange one and gifting Biden a state he thought he couldn't win).

Back to the news, another ex official speaks out:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/24/trump-goon-squad-john-sandweg-homeland-security-ice

[moose]

Did you listen to Americast by any chance Luke?

I did, and there have also been a lot of 538 articles and podcasts on thebalance of the Supreme Court e.g. this article on whether the swing Justice, Roberts, has become more liberal, or if the rest of the Court has moved rightwards around him (TR:DL - could be either or neither!).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/roberts-is-the-new-swing-justice-that-doesnt-mean-hes-becoming-more-liberal/

By the way, an interesting podcast on the history and pivotal cases of the Supreme Court is NPR / RadioLab's "More Perfect".  I would ignore the most recent "Most Perfect Album" episodes and pick and choose from the earlier episodes.   My favourites are "Gun Show", on how unimportant and marginal the 2nd amendment was until the 60/70s (the NRA only then made it a hobby horse in the wake of restrictions imposed to stop Black Panthers from bearing arms).  And, "One Nation Under Money" on how a decision on whether a farmer could be penalised for growing wheat for his own use ended up being very far-reaching e.g. it was used to stop segregation in private businesses, which the Civil Rights Act was unable to do (the CRA stopped inequality by states, but at the time struggled against businesses / individuals).

[TobyD]

Did you listen to Americast by any chance Luke?

I did, and there have also been a lot of 538 articles and podcasts on thebalance of the Supreme Court e.g. this article on whether the swing Justice, Roberts, has become more liberal, or if the rest of the Court has moved rightwards around him (TR:DL - could be either or neither!).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/roberts-is-the-new-swing-justice-that-doesnt-mean-hes-becoming-more-liberal/

By the way, an interesting podcast on the history and pivotal cases of the Supreme Court is NPR / RadioLab's "More Perfect".  I would ignore the most recent "Most Perfect Album" episodes and pick and choose from the earlier episodes.   My favourites are "Gun Show", on how unimportant and marginal the 2nd amendment was until the 60/70s (the NRA only then made it a hobby horse in the wake of restrictions imposed to stop Black Panthers from bearing arms).  And, "One Nation Under Money" on how a decision on whether a farmer could be penalised for growing wheat for his own use ended up being very far-reaching e.g. it was used to stop segregation in private businesses, which the Civil Rights Act was unable to do (the CRA stopped inequality by states, but at the time struggled against businesses / individuals).

Its just that what you wrote was pretty much exactly the same as their comments on it! That said I totally agree.  Yeah I've listened and read a few things on the history of the NRA, which hasn't always been  a very wealthy political lobbying organisation, and used to be about conservation and land management. 

[Offwidth]

The NRA is not as wealthy as it was
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/29/nra-financial-crisis-layoffs-furloughs

[TobyD]

The NRA is not as wealthy as it was
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/29/nra-financial-crisis-layoffs-furloughs

I rather doubt they're in crisis though, and they're a powerful political lobby group. The problem with reading articles about Trump, or American politics in UK newspapers is that they're far too fond of falling into the trap of laughing at Trump, writing him off and underestimating the strength of right wing conservatives in the US. They may not ever have voted for Biden, but they may not have voted for Trump either if it weren't for the fact he's likely to conservatise the supreme court and fulfil their anti abortion dreams.