[Yossarian]

I don't share your confidence because I don't see that it is grounded in anything more than optimism. I think we both hope you are right and my perception that this is a devilishly difficult mess led by one of the weakest cohorts of politicians in generations is mistaken.

Personally, I find everything gets dangerously depressing unless you approach life with a reasonable degree of optimism...

[mrjonathanr]

Well I'm all for that.

[mrjonathanr]

latest press release from the Department for Exiting the European Union  https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union

[Oldmanmatt]

I don't share your confidence because I don't see that it is grounded in anything more than optimism. I think we both hope you are right and my perception that this is a devilishly difficult mess led by one of the weakest cohorts of politicians in generations is mistaken.

Personally, I find everything gets dangerously depressing unless you approach life with a reasonable degree of optimism...

Amen.

Just remember to check your back for stray "Kick me" signs...


All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. I always forget to put those smiley things...

[petejh]

I think it's a great pity that infrastructure development / large scale construction has been allowed to languish quite as much as it has. Big projects get stuck at the discussion phase for years while, say, competitive airports get built in Turkey. I would love to see a decade of infrastructure investment but even with top level commitment the public reaction would probably still end up with everyone bickering about what's happening where.

Which is a pity because construction is something we're also good at, and something that we could be exporting too. South Korean companies like have got quite adept at picking those sorts of foreign contracts. Like the Mersey Gateway for example.

BTW We work on the Mersey Gateway project, I was there last week and visit regularly, and I agree with your sentiments. Although it's actually a consortium of contractors from Korea (Samsung), Portugal (FCC) and UK (Kier). Funded by Australian (Macquarie), Spanish (FCC) and multi-national BBGI. It's an impressive site (and sight). And it does employ a great many local workers.

[petejh]

Is it defeatism when you look at Johnson, Davis, May, Fox et al and think
'They aren't up to the job.' ?

It quickly gets tiresome to read if you aren't coming up with a better alternative.

[mrjonathanr]

Sorry if you don't like it, but that won't change reality.

[slackline]

Is it defeatism when you look at Johnson, Davis, May, Fox et al and think
'They aren't up to the job.' ?

It quickly gets tiresome to read if you aren't coming up with a better alternative.

We get a stab at an alternative government in four years time when the next general election rolls round, there might be internal shuffling in the mean time but there's nothing the general public can do to change that aspect of government until then.

[Stu Littlefair]

It quickly gets tiresome to read if you aren't coming up with a better alternative.

It's too tempting to point out that the 'better' alternative was on the ballot next to "leave'.





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[slackline]

A running commentary from David Davis - The Brexit secretary has provided some valuable insights into government thinking

Likely a paywalled article (the 'Background Reading' does link to more detailed articles on each but I'm too lazy to copy the links over too)...

David Davis’s wide-ranging hearing with MPs from the Brexit committee yesterday provided new indications of where government policy is heading. Theresa May insists she is not providing a running commentary on her negotiation but the Brexit secretary has provided a few valuable insights into government thinking.

The timing of the government’s Brexit plan. Mr Davis said the proposals would not be published until February at the earliest. He said there are “quite a few decisions still to be made", noting that the government will be guided by 57 industry sector analyses that it has commissioned from civil servants. He did not indicate whether plan would be in the form of a white paper, a green paper or something lighter.

It is no surprise that Mr Davis is leaving publication as late as possible. If the Supreme Court upholds the demand for a Commons vote on the triggering of Article 50, ministers will want to curtail debate. The vote will certainly be passed but ministers do not want to see the bill amended by MPs.

Britain will not negotiate with the EU over immigration. This was the most striking revelation of the day. Many had assumed that, at the heart of the UK-EU talks, would be a simple bargain: the more the UK restricts migration controls on EU citizens, the less Britain could expect privileged access to the single market.

Mr Davis is taking a more ruthless approach. He said UK immigration levels would be set “in the national interest”, they would be subject to “clear control by this parliament” and the precise migration policy that Britain sets would not feature in the talks with the EU.

In some ways, this is no surprise. Mr Davis has long believed that EU states will not want to restrict Britain’s privileged access to the single market because their own manufacturers need to export to the UK. Immigration policy is also something that successive UK governments will want to fine tune regularly after Britain has left the bloc. Even so, the EU’s negotiating position is bound to be influenced by how restrictive Britain’s border controls look set to be.

A transitional deal is a possibility. Mr Davis’s position has shifted. Last month he told banking executives that he was “not really interested” in am interim pact. Now he is prepared to accept one “if necessary”.

Mr Davis’s stance remains more cautious than that of Philip Hammond. The chancellor said this week that all “thoughtful politicians” accept the need for an interim deal. Mr Davis will only back a transitional pact as a way of facilitating a free-trade agreement whose outlines are agreed in principle. “We need to know where we are going before we decide on the transition,” he said.

Even so, the politics regrading a transitional deal have shifted inside cabinet in a direction that will reassure many in the City.

The reversibility of Article 50. The British government has long insisted that Article 50, once triggered, cannot be reversed. It is easy to understand why ministers take this view. Any suggestion that it can be revoked will encourage the EU to play hardball in order to persuade the British to change their minds and reverse the referendum decision.

Mr Davis stuck to this line for the most part: “It’s very difficult seeing it being revoked,” he said. “We don’t intend to revoke it.” But then he added cryptically: “It may not be revocable. I don’t know.”

This may be a subtle indication that the government expects a legal judgment on this issue next year — and one it may not like.

Background reading

Beware false hope Guy Verhofstadt's suggestion of “associate citizenship” for British citizens post-Brexit may have raised false hopes, writes Steve Peers on the LSE's Brexit Blog. The law professor says Verhofstadt not only lacks the authority to negotiate on this issue, but the chances of securing agreement from all other member states are pretty remote.

Never mind Article 50 Article 127, which governs the UK's membership of the EEA, is a separate agreement and it is unclear whether simply leaving the EU will be enough for Britain exit the single market, writes Gavin Barrett in The Conversation.

City hit (1) The FT writes that Lloyd’s of London has become one of the first major City businesses to put a timetable on plans to move a part of its operations to the EU in preparation for Brexit. John Nelson, chairman of Lloyd’s, said that the market had decided it needed to act sooner rather than later to protect the 11 per cent of its revenues coming from Europe.

City hit (2) The EU is preparing rule changes that enable territorial restrictions on the clearing of some euro-denominated transactions even before Britain leaves the bloc, according to the FT's Alex Barker and Jim Brunsden. For years the UK has fought against attempts to relocate euro clearing to the single currency area but European officials say a move to restrict euro-clearing outside the eurozone is likely before Britain’s expected withdrawal from the bloc in 2019.

Seems a very risky gamble to not budge on immigration in the hope that the EU will still want access to our markets when innumerable European ministers and government officials within member countries have all repeatedly said that access to the market is conditional on free movement of people.

[i.munro]

My (limited) understanding is that "it's conditional" not in the sense "we won't negociate on that" but more in the sense "driving that car is conditional on putting petrol in" i.e. we cannot be in the single-market without freedom of movement even if all 28 countries wanted it.

[slackline]

Thats my limited understanding too which is why I think its a risky stance to take as there regardless of how desirable it is for other countries to continue from the free trade they have with the UK its not going to happen unless the UK accepts free movement of people, i.e. the Government will extract us from the common market and whatever we're trying to sell to other European countries will, whilst potentially desirable, will be more expensive and in turn scope for making alternative options viable.

[Oldmanmatt]

Does anyone have any idea how possible it might be for the entire block to take a step back on political union to, say, pre-Euro levels?



All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. I always forget to put those smiley things...

[petejh]

Thats my limited understanding too which is why I think its a risky stance to take as there regardless of how desirable it is for other countries to continue from the free trade they have with the UK its not going to happen unless the UK accepts free movement of people, i.e. the Government will extract us from the common market and whatever we're trying to sell to other European countries will, whilst potentially desirable, will be more expensive and in turn scope for making alternative options viable.

When people talk about tariffs and their effect on our exports to the EU (and everywhere else) it's worth remembering that the 15% devaluation of Stirling since brexit eclipses any likely tariff imposed by the EU as a result of exiting the single market (likely to be approx 2% if we can't negotiate better). This means UK goods would be cheaper to foreign importers than when we had 0% tariffs as an EU member.  I'm not suggesting that's either all good (Matt) or all bad. It also makes foreign imports more expensive. Just pointing out that it's not as simple as 'exit EU=tariff=UK goods more expensive'.

[i.munro]

Again my limited understanding from  Prof. Dougan's handy podcasts is that  Tariffs aren't really the problem with leaving the single market.

[slackline]

Thats my limited understanding too which is why I think its a risky stance to take as there regardless of how desirable it is for other countries to continue from the free trade they have with the UK its not going to happen unless the UK accepts free movement of people, i.e. the Government will extract us from the common market and whatever we're trying to sell to other European countries will, whilst potentially desirable, will be more expensive and in turn scope for making alternative options viable.

When people talk about tariffs and their effect on our exports to the EU (and everywhere else) it's worth remembering that the 15% devaluation of Stirling since brexit eclipses any likely tariff imposed by the EU as a result of exiting the single market (likely to be approx 2% if we can't negotiate better). This means UK goods would be cheaper to foreign importers than when we had 0% tariffs as an EU member.  I'm not suggesting that's either all good (Matt) or all bad. It also makes foreign imports more expensive. Just pointing out that it's not as simple as 'exit EU=tariff=UK goods more expensive'.

Thanks, I'm always happy to sit corrected (I don't type standing).  I had read the excellent article on WTO terms dave posted the other day (bizarrely before he posted it as it flew past in one of my Twatter lists) but had forgotten to factor in the devaluation of the GBP when typing earlier.  I thought the article was insightful, and if my understanding of it is correct, its saying  that upon exiting the EU the UK is going to maintain whatever agreements are already in place and trade negotiations with the rest of the world will be a very long slow and drawn out process if/when they start happening, which is something that extracting us from EU bureaucracy is supposedly going to free us from (viz. points made about how long it took to finalise the EU/Canada trade agreement due to all 28 EU countries having to be happy).

I guess the huge uncertainty is what is driving Japanese banks and Lloyd's of London insurers to plan moving operations to elsewhere in the EU.

The FTs analysis of what Davis has said with regards to EU migration and the hope to still retain access to the common market still seems bullish to me.

[Oldmanmatt]

Obviously not directly related and much longer in the making than can be attributed to Brexit. However, anyone come across figures relating to changes in importation costs due to the drop in the pound? Such has been touched upon earlier in the thread, but I don't remember any figures/links to data.

http://www.expressandstar.com/business/midlands-business/2016/12/20/goodyear-closure-wolverhampton-factory-shuts-gates-for-last-time-after-89-years/


All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. I always forget to put those smiley things...

[slackline]

Not completely impartial given the source but just came across EuroMyths which fact checks some of the sensationalist headlines in the press.

[jfdm]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/theresa-may-set-vision-brexit-tuesday-january-17-2017/

St Theresa is going to give us some terms and conditions regarding the thingy me bob that took place last year 
Thought that word/phrase Brexit bingo would be fun to play regarding the speech.
My five are..
1) Red, white and blue Brexit.
2) Take back control of borders.
3) Hard  ( i mean exit nothing else!!!)
4) Make a success
5) Democratic will of the people.

[dave]

Can't wait to hear what empty baseless platitudes our "haunted art gallery owner" PM comes up with this time to disguise the fact nothing is happening and we have near as makes no difference no leverage to bargain.

[SA Chris]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/theresa-may-set-vision-brexit-tuesday-january-17-2017/

St Theresa is going to give us some terms and conditions regarding the thingy me bob that took place last year 
Thought that word/phrase Brexit bingo would be fun to play regarding the speech.
My five are..
1) Red, white and blue Brexit.
2) Take back control of borders.
3) Hard  ( i mean exit nothing else!!!)
4) Make a success
5) Democratic will of the people.

Can I have
1) I'm sorry I don't have a clue.
2) Please please please buy our stuff.
3) Black, Green and Gold Brexit.
4) You fucking voted for it, you are getting it whether you like it or not.
5) Lose / lose scenario.

[mrjonathanr]

We have near as makes no difference no leverage to bargain.

I think we will get what we're given in all but this respect: a lot of EU financial transactions pass through the city and it could cause real problems if this were seriously impaired - for us, obviously- but for some EU economies too.

It's one significant lever in a morass of otherwise impotent inadequacy.

[tomtom]

What a fuck up. My day at a funeral has been more uplifting than reading the news this evening.

[Oldmanmatt]

So... Sturgeon should be on the war path.




All posts either sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek or mildly mocking-in-a-friendly-way unless otherwise stated. I always forget to put those smiley things...

[jfdm]

My bingo scores weren't great.
The whole thing is a giant cluster fuck.
"Britain a great trading nation" about 100 years ago.
Let's have a look at who's doing the deals
Foxy - ah Verity Gate, all forgiven.
Gove - who left uk education in a mess.
Bozzer - the clown.
The list goes on Patel, Hunt the c..nt, Davis.
The country is secure in these hands..
If we can't trade within EU we are up the creak without a paddle.
All I can see are deals for those with clout, everybody else sling your hook.
Foxy, Gove, Bozzer st T all lining their own nests...
Where is a strong opposition when you need it.
Labour going out with a whimper, supporting this farce.