[tomtom]

Isn't the EPR French owned and Chinese built?

It's a financial joint venture (Hinkley C) between EDF (French, mainly state owned) and CGN (China, state owned).

However, the EPR is a French design, by Areva (French, state owned).

The fact that all other EPR projects on the go are massively over budget and behind schedule shouldn't worry us at all.......

Am I right in assuming that this decision was not really affected by our membership (or not) of the EU? (apart from Austria trying to scupper the deal - which they didn't manage to do..)

[galpinos]

Am I right in assuming that this decision was not really affected by our membership (or not) of the EU? (apart from Austria trying to scupper the deal - which they didn't manage to do..)

Nothing to do with the EU, more a general whinge on our government's* lack of ability to produce coherent long term policy for energy and the mess we end up in when panicked.

*of either hue, Labour did no better.

[Oldmanmatt]

Higher education (though we're on the verge of royally buggering that up as an export).

I have a few Sciency type friends involved in research and knowledge transfer, across and  around UK Academia. They seem genuinely petrified and by far the most pessimistic of voices in (as Pete would have it) my "Echo chamber". It seems the Government are unable to guarantee anywhere near similar funding for research, most projects are European collaborations, some are already crumbling in anticipation.
I'm really not expert or knowledgable on this. There must be a few on the forum who know the ins and outs?

Ironic, since High tech and research are two of the most touted arrows in our supposed quiver, ready to launch us into greatness.

Sorry, it's too bloody difficult to resist sarcasm. [emoji12]


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[petejh]

I don't see how "pulling our socks up" is going to help retain these industries?

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AKA, trying to improve the UK's - currently awful - productivity? Yeah, what crazy talk.

Short of reducing our labour costs, how are we going to compete?

The overdue currency devaluation making UK produce more competitive has been a good start. Reflected in export growth since Stirling declined. Remember Germany is one of the strongest exporters in part due to its relatively weak currency.

[petejh]

Higher education (though we're on the verge of royally buggering that up as an export).

I have a few Sciency type friends involved in research and knowledge transfer, across and  around UK Academia. They seem genuinely petrified and by far the most pessimistic of voices in (as Pete would have it) my "Echo chamber". It seems the Government are unable to guarantee anywhere near similar funding for research, most projects are European collaborations, some ate already crumbling in anticipation.
I'm really not expert or knowledgable on this. There must be a few on the forum who know the ins and outs?

Ironic, since High tech and research are two of the most touted arrows in our supposed quiver, ready to launch us into greatness.

Sorry, it's too bloody difficult to resist sarcasm. [emoji12]


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I read that Horizon 2020 (EU research funding program) is pledged to continue to... 2020. Despite brexit.

Beyond that..

[andy popp]

Higher education (though we're on the verge of royally buggering that up as an export).

I have a few Sciency type friends involved in research and knowledge transfer, across and  around UK Academia. They seem genuinely petrified and by far the most pessimistic of voices in (as Pete would have it) my "Echo chamber". It seems the Government are unable to guarantee anywhere near similar funding for research, most projects are European collaborations, some are already crumbling in anticipation.
I'm really not expert or knowledgable on this. There must be a few on the forum who know the ins and outs?

Ironic, since High tech and research are two of the most touted arrows in our supposed quiver, ready to launch us into greatness.

Sorry, it's too bloody difficult to resist sarcasm. [emoji12]


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I was responding directly to TT's question about what goods and services we generate that the rest of the world might wants and was, in that context, really only referring to foreign students (esp. non-EU). Even though this service is normally delivered in the UK it is in effect an export market and one in which we are a world leader (second to the US). The sums are very significant. But universities are in danger of killing the goose that laid the golden egg and governments look set to undermine the sector through restrictions on student visas etc.
 
Brexit is a clear threat to UK access to EU funding, though (as with everything Brexit connected) we don't yet know the extent to which that threat will be realised.

[tomtom]

It's largely our clampdown on foreign non EU students (to try and meet silly Davids migration targets) that's chopping off a massive revenue stream for U.K. HE. As I've posted here before our non EU students have to sign in each week and notify the govt if they leave the country and come back (e.g. Going to a conference). We used to get lots of Indian and Nigerian students but that's dried up since visa clampdowns....

Re EU funding the Swiss were #2 or 3 in top EU grant Earners until their 2014 referendum on stopping EU migrants. They're now 13-14th as it would appear reviewers were punishing Swiss proposals... (this effect has and was well reported ok he Brexit run up).

EU finding is 13% of UKHE research funding iirc? Might be more. That said someone at our place scored EU 2.3m last week in an EU grant...

[Oldmanmatt]

It's not about productivity or efficiency. It's about whether we can produce something(s) that we can export. One of my Partners here is a Software designer, currently big business (he says) for the UK globally.
He seems virtually suicidal about the whole thing, vastly exacerbated by the "Snoopers charter" apparently. I get the "Echo chamber" assertion, I really do, but I really don't seem to be personally acquainted with any leavers, except a Bat shit crazy, elderly Aunt (Who's only son Lectures in Barcelona and won't speak to her (and is home for Xmas, it's hugely funny and Xmas day looks exciting)).
So, yes, I guess I live in a filter bubble.
What strikes me most, though, is the fragility of Pro argument.
A good point is made about the strength of our exports, but it's foundations are immediately shaken by several other people in a matter of minutes.


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[slackline]

We used to get lots of Indian and Nigerian students but that's dried up since visa clampdowns....

There has been a decline in Nigerian students applying here too.  It has been suggested that for Nigeria the visa situation is compounded further by the countries oil based economy which took a nose dive when barrel prices dropped resulting in many not being able to afford to travel to the UK to study.

<anecdote>An Italian colleague has handed in his notice in the last week and is moving to a position in Germany.  He has cited concerns and uncertainty about Brexit as a strong motivating factor in his decision.</anecdote>.

[petejh]

I'm a fan of the anecdote designator Slackers. Please can we make this an option for Matt

OMM - 'foundations shaken', what after an exchange of posts made during tea breaks on a climbing forum? Hardly a 'foundation' for anything much! You make it sound like all of the chief economic forecasters got their forecasts way off. Oh hang on..

[Oldmanmatt]

Because it was Pete. You suggested that we are a strong exporting nation, a quick review of that statement showed that it largely hinges on the things that we have been told are most threatened. So I took your point, looked at it and realised all the experts in my "Echo chamber" had gone over this ground and reached a very different conclusion to you.
Shaken.
Please point out the leave expert(s) and how their interpretation differs. If an argument can be effectively challenged by a layman, with only a little reading, it's not much of an argument.
So, I keep hearing that our education system is failing to give us the workforce we need, I keep hearing we are unproductive etc etc and usually from the same media outlets that pushed the Brexit line. And then the same sources tell me that all we need to do is change out attitude and be more productive (which I referred to as "pulling our socks up"), without any substance. None of your arguments hold any water and yet you criticise me for relating anecdotes? Sorry mate, you have provided no evidence. It's not me being an arse, or picking a fight with you or even that I have diametrically opposing world view; I check out the things people tell me and try to make the best judgment I can from the information available. Something far too many people fail to do. I haven't ignored or dismissed anything you or anyone else on here has said/linked to/rumoured, I read the links, follow the trails, try to understand and eventually arrive at a position. You believe I started with an unshakable ethos that I cling to regardless, I didn't.
Neither have I ever pretended a rumour or speculation to be anything else. The whole leave argument has been nothing but speculation, the remain argument has had support from almost every accepted "Expert" in any field you cate to choose. That's not my fault.
The sky hasn't fallen. It might not.
If this was me back in my Exped guiding days, assessing snow conditions, weather predictions, team ability etc (none of which am I an "expert" in, always relying on others for the research and standards); I'd have canceled on this sort of evidence.
Same when I was planning Dive expeditions or entering a cave system or, or, or... you get the picture.

Which is a long winded way of saying, I think you're wrong, because nothing you have said has convinced me that the "experts" are wrong.
Weather forecasts are frequently wrong. If I ignored a bad forecast and proceeded to sea regardless; I would be rightly castigated should the shit hit the fan.
And I'm not a meteorologist and no ships Captain is.
This is a bad forecast, maybe we won't have hurricane force winds and Tsunamis, but even the best predictions look like force 10's+ and pretty high storm surges.

So now imagine you are a Captain and you have those forecasts, would you still put to sea because just over half the passengers voted for it? The crew (Academics, industry pro's, Economists etc) all say "no! Too risky!" and half the passenger are shouting "no!". Then quite a few of the passengers who voted to sail have changed their minds as the sky darkened.

Oh, sorry, I'm not allowed to use analogy; I forgot.



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[petejh]

I haven't time to read all that now but, from a quick glance, you're wrong from the off. I actually wasn't 'suggesting the UK is a strong exporter' - I was simply pointing out where we sit in the big picture. 'Strong' or not is relative. Compared to China and the US or the entire EU we're minnows.
 
But as it happens, 9th out of roughly 30 major countries (the full list is 180 odd but I'm ignoring most) - and the 2nd largest exporter in the EU - suggests to me that we *are* actually relatively significant exporters. And exports have already started to increase/ trade gap decreased according to the recent Q3 growth figures.

[Yossarian]

OK - so what goods and services do we produce that other countries want?

Finance sector is a good one. But that's only relevant if we're part of the EU...
Car assembly. Honda, Mini, Jaguar, Nissan: But that's only relevant if we're part of the EU...

Erm.... whisky? reality TV? (Edit) Royal Family?

Honestly, I'm not trying to be an arse, but I'm struggling to think of what items/things/services the rest of the world will bite our arm off to make trade deals for...

I am very far from being a brexiteer, but i do disagree with some of this sense of hopelessness.

The City will not fail, and it's not in anyone's interests to let it do so. I think most European leaders recognise this, even if they don't admit it in public.

You need to get away from physical things. Beyond banking, associated services like insurance, financial consulting, management consulting, the legal sector, etc eclipse physical export products by a massive amount. With a devalued pound, they represent even better value for money now.

Oil services, big architecture, engineering consultancy, design, the film industry. It goes on and on and on.

Yes, we're uncompetitive when it comes to processing steel, and lots of promising small / medium IT / tech companies get snapped by US firms.

But I think we do punch pretty hard for our weight.

[tomtom]

And the drop in the £ post Brexit means we're not punching as much above our weight now?


But hey ho...

[Yossarian]

My point was more that our services sector is well-established and world class, and is not going to somehow fizzle out overnight.

My hope is that we will start to see more of a compromise being made on each side about a watered down, opt-in / buy-in style exit, less uncertainty, more confidence, pound rises (but not too much), we drop corporation tax, pick up some more foreign investment.

The whole thing is a fucking disaster and a massive setback, but the defeatism is getting a bit tiring...

[mrjonathanr]

Is it defeatism when you look at Johnson, Davis, May, Fox et al and think
'They aren't up to the job.' ?

[Yossarian]

No. I don't have a lot of confidence in at least three of them. But I do have some confidence in Hammond. A small amount.

And I have confidence in the treasury, and the foreign office, and the department for international trade (who only today helped me with an export opportunity, in Russia no less) who will be briefing.

And I have quite a lot of confidence in British business. If people want what you're selling, they tend to buy it.

[galpinos]

You need to get away from physical things. Beyond banking, associated services like insurance, financial consulting, management consulting, the legal sector, etc eclipse physical export products by a massive amount. With a devalued pound, they represent even better value for money now.

Oil services, big architecture, engineering consultancy, design, the film industry. It goes on and on and on.

That's great Yoss but these aren't jobs that everyone can do. The economy we have now is leading to a wage disparity and the jobs being talked about aren't going to be available to the average man on the street in Boston Lincolnshire. You're talking about jobs for the middle classes in the cities. That's fine for you and me (I'm in engineering consultancy) but we need to build an economy that works for everyone. The economy is so disconnected from the average Briton, when the economy is doing well It means nothing to the average worker but does mean bonuses and more wealth for the people at the top.

Yes, we're uncompetitive when it comes to processing steel

We are competitive, we just don't have a state subsidised system like the competitors that undercut us (and the UK voted against the EU proposals to help the European steel market). We are so enamoured with the "free market" that we seem blind to the fact that it's rigged and we happily throw industries to the dogs on the basis that they can't compete in this free market against competitors that are propped up by their respective governments.

Apologies for the negative rant.

[lagerstarfish]

The economy is so disconnected from the average Briton, when the economy is doing well It means nothing to the average worker but does mean bonuses and more wealth for the people at the top.

isn't there a theory going around that people at the top need average (and below average) people to build and do things for them? and usually they pay them for this?

[galpinos]

The economy is so disconnected from the average Briton, when the economy is doing well It means nothing to the average worker but does mean bonuses and more wealth for the people at the top.

isn't there a theory going around that people at the top need average (and below average) people to build and do things for them? and usually they pay them for this?

They seem inclined to pay comparatively less and less for those services and ultimately these roles will be automated.

[Yossarian]

That's great Yoss but these aren't jobs that everyone can do. The economy we have now is leading to a wage disparity and the jobs being talked about aren't going to be available to the average man on the street in Boston Lincolnshire. You're talking about jobs for the middle classes in the cities. That's fine for you and me (I'm in engineering consultancy) but we need to build an economy that works for everyone. The economy is so disconnected from the average Briton, when the economy is doing well It means nothing to the average worker but does mean bonuses and more wealth for the people at the top.

I think it's a great pity that infrastructure development / large scale construction has been allowed to languish quite as much as it has. Big projects get stuck at the discussion phase for years while, say, competitive airports get built in Turkey. I would love to see a decade of infrastructure investment but even with top level commitment the public reaction would probably still end up with everyone bickering about what's happening where.

Which is a pity because construction is something we're also good at, and something that we could be exporting too. South Korean companies like have got quite adept at picking those sorts of foreign contracts. Like the Mersey Gateway for example.

[tomtom]

That's great Yoss but these aren't jobs that everyone can do. The economy we have now is leading to a wage disparity and the jobs being talked about aren't going to be available to the average man on the street in Boston Lincolnshire. You're talking about jobs for the middle classes in the cities. That's fine for you and me (I'm in engineering consultancy) but we need to build an economy that works for everyone. The economy is so disconnected from the average Briton, when the economy is doing well It means nothing to the average worker but does mean bonuses and more wealth for the people at the top.

I think it's a great pity that infrastructure development / large scale construction has been allowed to languish quite as much as it has. Big projects get stuck at the discussion phase for years while, say, competitive airports get built in Turkey. I would love to see a decade of infrastructure investment but even with top level commitment the public reaction would probably still end up with everyone bickering about what's happening where.

Which is a pity because construction is something we're also good at, and something that we could be exporting too. South Korean companies like have got quite adept at picking those sorts of foreign contracts. Like the Mersey Gateway for example.

Yup - theres HS2, Severn Tidal Barrage, Transpennine rail electification/HS3... working vaguely with things to do with flooding - an investment of c.£10Bn would result in a grand infrastructure scheme making most vulnerable towns and cities far safer.. but this wouldn't happen as no-one every notices when things like that work - only when they fail..

Transport, Energy, Housing.. simple..

Its interesting what you said Yoss about jobs frittering away overnight (or words like that)... well that won't happen overnight, but jobs will fritter away over the next 5 years or so. Friend works for cybersecurity startup in Cambridge.. high value company, c.50 employees, growing fast (ironically due to EU regulation on IT security meaning everyone in Europe will have to comply to new rule...). No more investment in the UK, instead all new personnel being recruited in their fledgling (read 2-3 people) offices in Dublin and NYC..

Pete mentioned hopelessness - or rather people giving off a sense of this (probably meant people like me!).. well, I don't feel hopelessness about the UK's future - I don't think society here will collapse (either overnight or in 5-10 years) or crash... but I do feel a genuine hopelessness with my inability to do anything about it! Thats the problem with this stupid referendum, no way back - well apparently, though the LibDems would have my vote at the moment..

[tomtom]

Meanwhile, the EU court has ruled the UK's mass retention of snooped phone and email data is illegal.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/dec/21/eus-highest-court-delivers-blow-to-uk-snoopers-charter

A case bought by David Davis (and others)... I'm sure theres a word to describe such a situation...

Though as the article points out the ruling may become redundant if/when we leave the EU...

[mrjonathanr]

And I have confidence in the treasury,

So do I but even so they can't keep government afloat single handedly. Estimated increase in net debt this year >£47 billion (http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_deficit_analysis)

and the foreign office,

led by....

and the department for international trade

led by.....

And I have quite a lot of confidence in British business. If people want what you're selling, they tend to buy it.

...no matter what the terms or tariffs.

I don't share your confidence because I don't see that it is grounded in anything more than optimism. I think we both hope you are right and my perception that this is a devilishly difficult mess led by one of the weakest cohorts of politicians in generations is mistaken.

[i.munro]

My sense of hopelessness stems not only from the economic prospects, which look dire,  but also from the collapse/hijacking of our democracy.

Under our system what should/would  have happened, if indeed there is a majority in favour of leaving the EU, is that a large no of eurosceptic MPs (a mix of anti-EU Tories, UKIP & independents I guess) would have been elected at the last GE.

A eurosceptic govt would then be in place (prpbably after a Tory coup) but with a tiny majority given the 48/52 Nos so a compromise deal would be worked out - say a Norway type thing.

Instead we have, for the 2nd GE in a row now (& arguably the 3rd) a govt enacting drastic irreversible changes that nobody voted for, in that they weren't in any manifesto at the GE.