[TheTwig]

The idea that the current government can whip round and see what trade deals it can get before invoking Article 50 and going to the EU to negotiate the terms of its exit is putting the cart before the horse, because the above article fails to mention that its illegal for the UK (or any other EU member) to undertake trade negotiations until after it has left the EU.

Technically, Ms Malmstrom will most probably be correct. But it does rather beg the question what penalties the EU could practically apply if we do carry out negotiations with a third party during the exit process. What are they going to do, threaten to kick us out of the club?

I would imagine the penalties would fall on the EU countries that would be doing the hypothetical negotiations. They are, after all still 'stuck' in the EU 

[chris j]

Why do you assume I'm talking about negotiations with EU countries? They're bound by the collective decisions made by the EU and that most likely will be sorted out as part of the Brexit deal. The rule bans us from conducting any negotiations with the rest of the world, that's going to be difficult to enforce.

I am intrigued that most 'Remain' supporters appear to fixate on the EU as if it is the be-all and end-all in the world, there's a lot of the rest of the world out there.

[slackline]

I see your defense for your attack is that I'm trolling. Brilliant. I explained it in the post immediately after your post but you obviously didn't see it.

This one....

Ah ok you imply something as fact in the hope that someone else has to read the link to discount what you say as fact. What a wonderful way to use the web. No wonder people second guess each other all the time. Brilliant.

I explained very clearly why I linked to the article and only put a brief summary of text in my post.

I note the sarcasm in "What a wonderful way to use the web", perhaps you could explain why you think my explanation is an inappropriate use of the web?

Or is there no scope for being sarcastic and you therefore can't be bothered to explain yourself?

You'll be putting a cock on your avatar next and saying it's not a cock but a bell curve.

No, I'm more mature than that. I read Lee's criticism which amounts to "You shouldn't have linked to an article with only a short summary of its content, you should have re-written it in full covering every nuanced point" and I took the time to explain my actions and why I use links.  I await an explanation of why that is felt to be an inappropriate use of the web.  In light of the criticism its ironic that Lee actually did click through and read at least the opening paragraphs of the article!

[i.munro]

I am intrigued that most 'Remain' supporters appear to fixate on the EU as if it is the be-all and end-all in the world, there's a lot of the rest of the world out there.

I would imagine that the EU would like nothing more than a way  to avoid an extended period of uncertainty, followed by two years of complex negotiation  while at the same time setting a handy precedent for any future departures.

[i.munro]

Never mind that Prof. Duggan made it clear before the Referendum that nobody will want to negotiate until the rUK's future  relationship with the EU becomes clear and that the UK doesn't have the capacity to handle anything else until first the Brexit negotiations and then ensuing trade talks with the EU are finished.

Oh I forgot we've had enough of "experts".

In which case, I suggest we swiftly start trade talks with the 2 most technologically adavnced nations on Earth - Wakanda and Latveria.
In particular can we please send Boris to negotiate with the Latverian head of state.
I look forward to his comments and the sunsequent consequences.

[Teaboy]

Shame about ARM, I suppose. Although since the 80s UK manufacturing seems to have been getting flogged to foreign bidders no matter the circumstances, the decade, or the government of the day.

And yet more bad news for determind catastrophe-addicts: bank of england report shows no clear evidence of a sharp brexit slowdown. Or good news to some. Depends on your outlook.


Source
IMF slashes UK growth forecasts after Brexit
'Pound breaks $1.31 after UK jobless rate falls to fresh 11-year low
European bourses edge higher on robust earnings results
FTSE 100 poised to close above 6,700 for the first time since August 2015
UK unemployment falls to 4.9pc in the three months to May
Bank of England surveys shows no clear evidence of sharp Brexit slowdown
FTSE 250 just 2pc off pre-Brexit levels


'12:02pm
BoE agents report encouraging to the UK business community
Following the release of the Bank of England's agents report which showed that there is no clear evidence of sharp Brexit slowdown, Adam Tyler, chief executive of the National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers reacts:

"Coupled with the robust jobs data published this morning, this latest report from the Bank of England will provide considerable encouragement to the UK business community.

"The findings are certainly consistent with what we are seeing on the ground, namely that most businesses are carrying on more or less as normal.

"Businesses are monitoring events closely, especially news surrounding future trading relations, but the corporate paralysis some suggested has simply not materialised.

BoE
"It's not quite business as usual, but for many businesses in many sectors it's not far off. The challenge now is to ensure businesses continue to receive the funding and support they need in the uncertain times ahead. Again, there is no sign, as yet, that bank funding has dried up.

"Businesses appear to have taken a very pragmatic view on recent political events. Be cautious, certainly, but don't be overwhelmed."


Just a small story in the papers. If it were a story from the BoE about 'danger to UK economy/jobs/growth/gritstone' it would be headline fare. Strange world isn't it.

1 month now since brexit - still plenty of time yet for economic catastrophe of the scale predicted by the sages on here... 

As it turns out there was time before the full month was up for that news to come through
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273

Ok, not a catastrophe certainly in line with remainers predictions. Now back to the predictions of the Brexiters.........

BTW I'm not suggesting that this is any more valid as a prediction than the rosy picture you paint above but just pointing out that there is a long way to go and whilst the best case that's been outlined seems to be 'Maybe not as bad as all the doom mongers predicted' the worst case cannot be ruled out.

[shark]

So May is talking a hard Brexit but I somehow doubt she will fully walk the talk.

Of more immediate concern is the effect this posturing is having on Sterling.

Any views (habrich) at what level of devaluation would force or provoke an interest rate rise? Dollar parity?

[Oldmanmatt]

After several weeks of talking to European leaders, she suddenly decides "Hard" is the only way.

Because she knows that's all she can deliver, she's been told clearly and realises this is the only position that won't make her look like a whipped puppy.


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[Oldmanmatt]

So May is talking a hard Brexit but I somehow doubt she will fully walk the talk.

Of more immediate concern is the effect this posturing is having on Sterling.

Any views (habrich) at what level of devaluation would force or provoke an interest rate rise? Dollar parity?

This is interesting, if so inclined.
You might want to watch what happens on Friday at the BOE gathering:

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5569-pound-to-euro-outlook-for-the-next-five-days/


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[tomtom]

Lucy Lillicrap is forecasting a long tailed hammer no less.

[Oldmanmatt]

Lucy Lillicrap is forecasting a long tailed hammer no less.

But what's Linda Lovelace's position?


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[tomtom]

Lucy Lillicrap is forecasting a long tailed hammer no less.

But what's Linda Lovelace's position?

A safe distance from Donalds small hands...

[Oldmanmatt]

I do wonder, how much this punditry becomes "self fulfilling" prognostication...


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[jfdm]

What's the angle? They knew it would be shit for a bit, everybody did, why report that it's shit at this moment in time?

Shit for a bit, looks like it's going to be shit for decades.

I think this is probably the angle, the good ship UK being hijacked by pirates and then forced into the rocks. Pirate crew on the bridge, captain St Theresa, long Jon "bozzer", verity"fox", and the hamster Hammond, Pretti "p" all asleep at the wheel.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/11/pound-pressure-city-fears-hard-brexit-bank-of-england-business-live

I am just wondering when will people decide enough is enough.
What a freaking mess.
All looks very unpatriotic to me.

[Oldmanmatt]

So May is talking a hard Brexit but I somehow doubt she will fully walk the talk.

Of more immediate concern is the effect this posturing is having on Sterling.

Any views (habrich) at what level of devaluation would force or provoke an interest rate rise? Dollar parity?

Sorry, in maelstrom of reports today, this slipped my notice until this evening. A more direct opinion. It won't.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5571-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-today-fools-errand

Also, at time of posting, this Tuesday eve, the pound seems to be at parity with the Euro (lack of capital intended); all bar 9 Euro cents.

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[jfdm]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/01/liam-fox-pre-brexit-deal-setback-european-union


Looks as though things are going well from our chief Britshit negotiator. Dr Foxy.
Britshit was so important, St Theresa took her normal Swiss alp hols for Christ sake!
Who'd thought it, £ down by 20%
Petrol creeping up.
Apple computers up by £500.
Welfare state propping up big business, Nissan the first of many.
Things just get better and better, we are on the up!
Britshit means well Britshit.

[Oldmanmatt]

Now, now. None of this defeatist talk. The people have spoken.



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[jfdm]

The people have obviously spoken from the toilet.
Matt you've run out of paper.
Oh Britshit.

[dave]

Still hope:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785

[Johnny Brown]

The more I see from the Government the more convinced I am that they are trying to make it look like they are serious about it whilst actually trying to make it guaranteed to fail. All this talk of hard Brexit does not square with the Nissan letter, which would seem to suggest very soft/ no Brexit. Still don't think it will happen.

[Fultonius]

Interesting perspective. Make Brexit seem so bad that when they inevitably don't deliver there is less of an outcry,  more relief?

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[dave]

I sense a degree of attempted statesmanship from May where she will want to be seen to be a "strong leader" (i.e. divisive / Thatcheresque) and been seen to push through with Brexit but even when at least half the country don't want it. Even she can't be so stupid to not see privately that it would be an absolute fucking disaster. The question is will the Tory top brass put the genuine national interest ahead of their career progression? Track record on that is poor.

[jfdm]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3898716/D-Day-Brexit-Britain-s-exit-EU-DELAYED-landmark-court-case-rules-Theresa-start-EU-talks-without-MPs-vote.html#comments

A lot of frothing going on at the daily wail too.
Nearly 4,000 comments already.
Farage raging so must be a good thing, taking back control and sovereignty...

[Oldmanmatt]

When a country is as closely split ,on a simple yes/no issue, of this magnitude and import; the notion that 48(and a bit)% of that country are simply "unimportant traitors", is fucking nauseating.

Just as it would be, had the result gone the other way. It's fucking ridiculous situation and Cameron and co. should be fucking shot for putting us here.

Regardless of your views on in/out, surely everyone must be dismayed by this farce.
The absolute, out-and-out lies of the leave and remain campaign should be treated as criminal.
Though personally I think that would lead to far more prosecutions from the leave campaign.

It's shit, we will all suffer to some degree, there seem to be no positives emerging and the best take seems to be that things haven't quite collapsed yet.


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[tomtom]