[slackline]

Petrol price will be where the Leavers' force of denial comes crashing up against immovable reality.

Graphs and warnings from economists will be disregarded. When it costs £100 to fill their car, then they'll pay attention.

[galpinos]

Men and women much more intelligent than me will sit round a table or many tables and decide over a period of time what they think is the best course of action for Britain as a nation to go forward when we have left the eu

Dense, apologies for selectively quoting you but this statement struck me. You are happy to let these "Men and women much more intelligent than me" make all the decisions after we have left the EU, but wouldn't listen to them on whether we stay in the EU or not? Is that correct?

It just seems a bit of a contradiction?

[Oldmanmatt]

Andrea Leadsom is willing and able to lead given the chance.

Have you seen some of the Bat-shit crazy policies she's promoted in the past? Hard to swallow (for me) but May is probably the safest hands out of the likely suspects. Too "Survival of the fittest, Neo-Liberal" to remotely fit my ideal, but resolute and pragmatic. Less given to oddball, swivel-eyed-lunacy than the others. I hope.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[dave]

Andrea Leadsom is willing and able to lead given the chance.

Hard to swallow (for me) but May is probably the safest hands out of the likely suspects. Too "Survival of the fittest, Neo-Liberal" to remotely fit my ideal, but resolute and pragmatic. Less given to oddball, swivel-eyed-lunacy than the others. I hope.

It says a lot about the current field of Tory leadership hopefuls that when you drop that particular bucketfull of turds down the bog it's May that seems to be the one that floats to the top.

[galpinos]

It says a lot about the current field of Tory leadership hopefuls that when you drop that particular bucketfull of turds down the bog it's May that seems to be the one that floats to the top.

To quote Frankie Boyle, "And so we have a Conservative leadership election, a sort of X Factor for choosing the antichrist"

[a dense loner]

Don't apologise galpinos, I will leave the big plans going forward to the people that I helped elect for this very purpose. I didn't listen to a "selection of experts that fit the remain camp this week" that it was better to remain. The two things are not mutual.

[seankenny]

Don't apologise galpinos, I will leave the big plans going forward to the people that I helped elect for this very purpose. I didn't listen to a "selection of experts that fit the remain camp this week" that it was better to remain. The two things are not mutual.

How do you decide between experts?

[slackline]

I will leave the big plans going forward to the people that I helped elect for this very purpose.

Who's that then?  The Conservative leader and Prime Minister, who you presumably voted for as you say you helped elect them, has resigned as he is unwilling to sort out the mess.  The "selection of experts that fit the remain leave camp this week" who convinced you it was better to leave don't seem to be doing much, the most vociferous of whom (Johnson) has stepped out of the running for the job that would allow him to sort out these big plans.

On the actual practicalities of negotiating an exit, Whitehall is severely lacking in civil servants with training and experience of negotiating international trade deals (there are 55 with such training!) to the extent that it is being suggested that foreign workers will be recruited to do such a job in the eventuality that Article 50 is enacted (which provides a wonderful dose of irony for the subset of 'Leave' voters whose motivation was to reduce immigration).

Something of an omnishambles.


And whilst you mistook my reference yesterday to general elections to mean referendums (I do clearly understand that you made this mistake), you still went on to write earlier referendums that have been overturned don't mean a lot .  So which of the two other national referendums have been overturned?  The answer is none.

[finbarrr]

Irvine Welsh:
"let’s remember that no democrat can defend the commission-led EU, and nobody in the remain camp had a serious reforming vision of Europe, any more than those in leave offer much of clue as to what they’ll do with their increasingly hollow-looking victory."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/beauty-beneath-brexit-bedwetting-leave-vote-diversity-genuine-change

[galpinos]

Don't apologise galpinos, I will leave the big plans going forward to the people that I helped elect for this very purpose. I didn't listen to a "selection of experts that fit the remain camp this week" that it was better to remain. The two things are not mutual.

My worry is who are these people, “that I helped elect for this very purpose”? Johnson, Farage and Leadsom? There’s only one left standing and it looks like we’ll get May. Most of Parliament are (apparently) in the Remain camp so they might not represent your views?

I voted Remain but concede there could be positives to come out of this. The fact the Labour are in self-destruct and the Tories are totally focussed on getting a new leader and cracking out the karaoke means we don’t actually get any debate on what the plan is post EU, not just on immigration and the free market but how all this money is going to be distributed. Are there going to be reforms of the CAP handouts or will the farmers still get paid the same subsidies, from a different pot etc?

[erm]

Irvine Welsh:
"let’s remember that no democrat can defend the commission-led EU, and nobody in the remain camp had a serious reforming vision of Europe, any more than those in leave offer much of clue as to what they’ll do with their increasingly hollow-looking victory."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/beauty-beneath-brexit-bedwetting-leave-vote-diversity-genuine-change

This statement demonstrates that he doesn't understand how the EU works.

[seankenny]

I voted leave for reasons to do with self-governance and a more global outlook...

And who is responsible for the UK's self-governance and global outlook? Would that be MPs, business leaders, the City, universities, etc? Are those who will be responsible for this shift away from parochialism into globalism be living in Rotherham or Barnsley, or will they be the residents of London, Oxford, Cambridge?

The answer to that I imagine is that it all depends on what life chances are available to people in Rotherham and Barnsley over the coming twenty years. We know who the movers and shakers are who will shape events in the coming 5-10 years. I don't understand what point you're trying to make? That it's some sort of an immutable law that people from Barnsley or Rotherham must be -what? Racist? Stupid? You're more cynical than I thought! After all people born in Rotherham are in no way inherently inferior human-beings to people born in London or Oxford. Deprivation breeds some toxic views.

Well I'm from a shitty small town in East Yorkshire so I know that not everyone in those places is racist or stupid, but I also know that the people who fundamentally do most to orientate the UK to the outside world aren't there. That's just a function of how our economy works (it certainly wasn't the case in the 19th century, for example) rather than being a mass character judgement.

My point is the Britain is already quite a globally-orientated country (yes, I wrote about our parochialism rather tongue in cheek). The people who want that, facilitate it and do well out of it overwhelmingly warned us against leaving the EU. That's both individuals and institutions. They'll now be so busy dealing with the shit storm that there will be little energy or time left over for looking outwards, and anyhow a big part of our appeal to the outside world is due to our membership of the EU. Oh, that, and our political and economic stability, which is trashed for at least a couple of years. And no, I don't buy the "it's just a transition period" line, because whilst we're transitioning we stand to lose ground which will be very hard to catch up.

As for your point on self-governance, it is indeed the best argument you've got. This is worth reading:
http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2007/06/the-inescapable.html

[Fultonius]

Or to put it another way you're suggesting the civil service would remain doing things in the same way it did when we were part of the EU, if the country left the EU. That would be more than a bit silly wouldn't it? I'm no head of civil service but here's an idea - change with the demands of the situation.

So...what, hire all those other suitably experienced civil service trade deal negotiators who are just waiting for this opportunity?  How is going to train them? Do you really think there's any chance of that going quickly and smoothly?

Is this really such an impossible a thing to comprehend?

I love the idea that we can just hire in experts around the world to help us in our hour of need.

Wait.

A.

Fuckin.

Minute.


So, New Zealand have offered their services to help us negotiate a deal with.....New Zealand.  I wonder who's going to do well out of that!!

If it wasn't so ironic it would be funny. You couldn't make it up.

 pointless link

[i.munro]

Are people seriously expecting the rule of law to be maintained when another 15 years of economic misery gets piled on top of the 6 years people have aleady sufffered and when the democratic systems, by which we are goverened, have plainly stopped working. If so I wish I could share your optimism.

[SA Chris]

Don't apologise galpinos, I will leave the big plans going forward to the people that I helped elect for this very purpose. I didn't listen to a "selection of experts that fit the remain camp this week" that it was better to remain. The two things are not mutual.

How do you decide between experts?

Confirmation bias.

[galpinos]

Irvine Welsh:
"let’s remember that no democrat can defend the commission-led EU, and nobody in the remain camp had a serious reforming vision of Europe, any more than those in leave offer much of clue as to what they’ll do with their increasingly hollow-looking victory."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/beauty-beneath-brexit-bedwetting-leave-vote-diversity-genuine-change

Ha, I was going to add the same link a quote the same text, especially the "and nobody in the remain camp had a serious reforming vision of Europe, any more than those in leave offer much of clue as to what they’ll do with their increasingly hollow-looking victory".

As erm said, the "no democrat can defend the commission-led EU" hints at a (willfull?) lack of understanding of how the EU is run but therev are plenty of good points in there.

[tregiffian]

Does anyone out there KNOW whether Westminster can, as I have seen suggested, overturn the referendum result?

[SA Chris]

No. A few highly paid lawyers seem to think so though.

[slackline]

Does anyone out there KNOW whether Westminster can, as I have seen suggested, overturn the referendum result?

I'd suggest reading David Allen Green (/Jack of Kent) blog posts from the 24th June onwards to get up to speed on this.

[Fultonius]

No, of course not. The referendum result cannot be changed.

However, it wasn't a legally binding referendum, so, conversely, the government doesn't have any legal obligation to act on the result.

What slackers said^^^

[Nigel]

To come to Dense’s defence for a second, what does it achieve to harangue him for a good answer as to why he voted to leave? He doesn’t need one does he? Nor do the other millions who voted to leave. Not ideal but that’s voting for you. Rather than wish away the result or look for loopholes I feel that energy would be better spent trying to make leaving work in the best way possible.

I voted to remain and wanted remain to win, but I think the arguments that the result should be questioned because it was non-binding, only so many of eligible voters voted, the leave campaign was based on lies etc. surely ignores the political reality? The whole point of the referendum was to get the people to answer the question “In / Out of the EU”. They’ve answered it. And they expect it to be delivered. I’m not judging the rights and wrongs of that by the way (I’d rather stay in), but if you’re a politician that is surely how it is – you’ve just been given what is in effect a massive protest vote from people who feel ignored by the establishment. The response to that cannot be to ignore it. That would be political suicide.

Hence why I think there will be no second referendum.

The article 50 thing will drag on for a bit as it allows a bit of delaying tactics while Westminster gets it shit together, but unless events in the rest of the EU change dramatically then it will get surely get triggered this parliament, probably sooner rather than later.

As someone said earlier, I think leaving may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. As in, once we have gone then maybe other countries (Italy for example) will try to leave and the EU will break up; or on the flipside France and Germany will push for ever closer union now that the reluctant Brits aren’t holding them back. All caused by us of course, but either outcome will self-justify the decision to leave and make the duplicitous and lying politicians smell of roses if they can solve the economic issues. The other option is a massive fudge based around a shitter version of our current EU deal. None of these outcomes pleases me one iota.

[Offwidth]

To come to Dense’s defence for a second, what does it achieve to harangue him for a good answer as to why he voted to leave? He doesn’t need one does he? Nor do the other millions who voted to leave. Not ideal but that’s voting for you. Rather than wish away the result or look for loopholes I feel that energy would be better spent trying to make leaving work in the best way possible.

I voted to remain and wanted remain to win, but I think the arguments that the result should be questioned because it was non-binding, only so many of eligible voters voted, the leave campaign was based on lies etc. surely ignores the political reality? The whole point of the referendum was to get the people to answer the question “In / Out of the EU”. They’ve answered it. And they expect it to be delivered. I’m not judging the rights and wrongs of that by the way (I’d rather stay in), but if you’re a politician that is surely how it is – you’ve just been given what is in effect a massive protest vote from people who feel ignored by the establishment. The response to that cannot be to ignore it. That would be political suicide.

Hence why I think there will be no second referendum.

The article 50 thing will drag on for a bit as it allows a bit of delaying tactics while Westminster gets it shit together, but unless events in the rest of the EU change dramatically then it will get surely get triggered this parliament, probably sooner rather than later.

As someone said earlier, I think leaving may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. As in, once we have gone then maybe other countries (Italy for example) will try to leave and the EU will break up; or on the flipside France and Germany will push for ever closer union now that the reluctant Brits aren’t holding them back. All caused by us of course, but either outcome will self-justify the decision to leave and make the duplicitous and lying politicians smell of roses if they can solve the economic issues. The other option is a massive fudge based around a shitter version of our current EU deal. None of these outcomes pleases me one iota.

Dense pokes with a stick, people can poke back. How was anyone going to get him to say why if he didn't want to?

The post brexit journey has only just begun and things are looking if anything worse than the average of the serious organisations negative predictions (£ below $1.30,  FTSE250 down 10% as measured in £s, stocks heavily down worldwide, BoE intervening to steady the ship, extra austerity cancelled to boost debt led growth, several commercial investment vehicles suspended, major investments stalled or cancelled, banks and building stocks taking a hammering and we are still far from confirming we are even leaving yet and if we do 'may' even go with a free movement Norway model. When this starts to hit pockets, if it becomes obvious that enough of the British people feel they made a mistake, based on what they now regard as lies (easy enough to tell through polls), I'd sincerely hope the politicians in our representative democracy follow their instincts and try to block leaving.  Political suicide in a theoretical sense should be solved for the tories by calling an election based on brexit but the fact they won't should be a pretty clear message they know a good bit of the sentiment for the vote was about protest. With such a slim majority the economic sense line will have to be towed : imagine the prospects of a hard line on brexit triggering no confidence from tory europhiles and an election producing a Corbyn government.

[TheTwig]

To come to Dense’s defence for a second, what does it achieve to harangue him for a good answer as to why he voted to leave? He doesn’t need one does he? Nor do the other millions who voted to leave. Not ideal but that’s voting for you. Rather than wish away the result or look for loopholes I feel that energy would be better spent trying to make leaving work in the best way possible.

I voted to remain and wanted remain to win, but I think the arguments that the result should be questioned because it was non-binding, only so many of eligible voters voted, the leave campaign was based on lies etc. surely ignores the political reality? The whole point of the referendum was to get the people to answer the question “In / Out of the EU”. They’ve answered it. And they expect it to be delivered. I’m not judging the rights and wrongs of that by the way (I’d rather stay in), but if you’re a politician that is surely how it is – you’ve just been given what is in effect a massive protest vote from people who feel ignored by the establishment. The response to that cannot be to ignore it. That would be political suicide.

Hence why I think there will be no second referendum.

The article 50 thing will drag on for a bit as it allows a bit of delaying tactics while Westminster gets it shit together, but unless events in the rest of the EU change dramatically then it will get surely get triggered this parliament, probably sooner rather than later.

As someone said earlier, I think leaving may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. As in, once we have gone then maybe other countries (Italy for example) will try to leave and the EU will break up; or on the flipside France and Germany will push for ever closer union now that the reluctant Brits aren’t holding them back. All caused by us of course, but either outcome will self-justify the decision to leave and make the duplicitous and lying politicians smell of roses if they can solve the economic issues. The other option is a massive fudge based around a shitter version of our current EU deal. None of these outcomes pleases me one iota.

Do people really want us to leave though? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/wales-has-changed-its-mind-over-brexit-and-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu-poll-finds-a7120246.html

"An ITV Wales/Cardiff University YouGov poll found Welsh voters would vote Remain by 53 per cent and Leave by 47 per cent if there was a second EU referendum."

Wouldn't be surprised if there was a similar result in other parts of the country, though probably much less pronounced. The average joe in Cornwall just doesn't seem to care...

In another train of thought, here's quite an entertaining (and relevant!) video https://www.facebook.com/JonathanPieReporter/videos/936993456423548/

I'm doing my best to not jump back on the 'lets take shots at Dense' bandwagon, it's hard, oh so hard  Just think of it as another form of training

[i.munro]

 : imagine the prospects of a hard line on brexit triggering no confidence from tory europhiles and an election producing a Corbyn government.

Fortunately for the Tory party  - but disastrously for the rest of use H.Benn etc have pretty much rendered that a non-starter.

[rich d]

[/quote]

Do people really want us to leave though? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/wales-has-changed-its-mind-over-brexit-and-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu-poll-finds-a7120246.html

"An ITV Wales/Cardiff University YouGov poll found Welsh voters would vote Remain by 53 per cent and Leave by 47 per cent if there was a second EU referendum."

[/quote]
But didn't the polls have remain ahead for much of the time before the referendum, don't think after this referendum result and the general election that polls (possibly with the exception of exit polls) are much use.