[Fultonius]

Also has anyone read the Mystic Clegg article?

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-wake-vote-leave/

Jesus H Christ...you're not kidding. Are you sure that hasn't been backdated? Truly prescient! 

[JR]

I can't see a second ref being likely,  but am increasingly expecting whoever wins the Tory leadership to call a GE, and run on a manifesto of the likely terms of exit. Wouldn't expect it or brexit to wait till the 2020's though.

It's quite possible they'll campaign on a second referendum, rather than call a GE.  Because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, without repealing it, or managing to get a vote of no confidence of 2/3rds of the house, i.e about 110 Tories voting "no confidence", it can't be called. That's not to say it won't happen though, it just requires some huge, and probably planned, political suicides. 

It's not likely to happen because, no political party wants to lose power, even over such a poisoned chalice as leading their way through this. What any new leader will want to know is that they have a strong enough mandate to lead.  Whilst holding a GE feels better from a democratic mandate point of view (and it's not something I'd turn down, as I wrote on my blog, especially if the following can't work), if staying in the EU is your primary goal, based purely on tactics and whilst many here won't like it, then having a new Tory leader, voted in on a second referendum ticket, who clearly defines the process of exit, explaining exactly when article 50 notification is sent (if leave wins) and who does so on a binding vote (whether at 50% of vote or at greater %), is probably the best chance of staying in the EU at this point int time. 

Holding a GE has so many unknowns at this point in time, it could well backfire, especially into a UKIP backed quagmire.  And with such a short time for Labour and everyone else to get houses in order before October, it's looking more and more likely that this will form part of the Tory leadership campaign. The problem is, you can't have much influence over the Tory party leadership, that's where such a hope gets very risky.  But this whole situation is fraught with risk!

Anyway, all speculation, we'll know who are being put forward for leadership by Thursday evening.  As it stands, there's only 2 likely 'leave' candidates and 7 'remain'.

PS No bookies favourite has ever won a Tory leadership contest (I'm told on good authority)

[jfdm]

To more seriously answer your previous post jdfm - this is why referenda are rarely used (Cameron has used more than we had previously since WW2) because most questions are far more nuanced than yes or no.. So need a more broad answer that brings in all the knowledge.

Which is why we have governments rather than perpetual referendums about every bloody thing.

At work (school) had election assembley about referendum (Thursday last week)
Duputy Head said term referendum is a question that has a simple yes or no answer.
No halfway houses.
Kids had vote, voted in an almost identical fashion to ukb poll, 80% remain 20% exit.
The kids I teach between 7 and 13 years old, they can get their heads around this issue.
It says a lot that the supposed adults and government can't.
And that why MPs and PM are paid big bucks to actually lead get heads around the big questions, obviously not.

[tomtom]

Sky News reporting that Cornyn has lost no confidence vote by 80%

http://news.sky.com/story/1718507/jeremy-corbyn-loses-vote-of-no-confidence

Was announced at 4:30 PM. Get with the rolling media program Sharkio

[jfdm]

Sky News reporting that Cornyn has lost no confidence vote by 80%

http://news.sky.com/story/1718507/jeremy-corbyn-loses-vote-of-no-confidence

Was announced at 4:30 PM. Get with the rolling media program Sharkio

Tomtom Give the young man a break.
He has been Oaking it up recently. 

[seankenny]

Thanks Stone for pretty much summing up my feelings and thanks Pete too. Its ironic and offensive calling people racist and fascist sympathisers because they have made a different decision to yourself on an issue like this.

Racist and fascist sympathisers - no.
But what? Probably something closer to enablers.

Yet you seem to admire Thatcher and under her watch. We had to form the Anti Nazi league and Rock Against Racism.

I admire your anti-fascist creds but suggest you read my posts a little more carefully...

[Oldmanmatt]

Also has anyone read the Mystic Clegg article?

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-wake-vote-leave/

Well that was on the money right up to the last two paragraphs.

We'll know about those in a month or two.


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[SA Chris]

Also has anyone read the Mystic Clegg article?

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-wake-vote-leave/

Jesus H Christ...you're not kidding. Are you sure that hasn't been backdated? Truly prescient!

Apparently so. No-one has said otherwise.

[Oldmanmatt]

Thanks Stone for pretty much summing up my feelings and thanks Pete too. Its ironic and offensive calling people racist and fascist sympathisers because they have made a different decision to yourself on an issue like this.

Racist and fascist sympathisers - no.
But what? Probably something closer to enablers.

Yet you seem to admire Thatcher and under her watch. We had to form the Anti Nazi league and Rock Against Racism.

I admire your anti-fascist creds but suggest you read my posts a little more carefully...

Ok.

I can't find any hint of racism in any of Pete's, Dense's or A.N.Others posts on here.
Personally I don't for one second imagine that they voted on a racial basis.

This has uncovered the extent of racist feeling in the country and that I find both disappointing and frightening.

But it was there anyway and if it hadn't been this then it would have been something else.
There's a long list of possibilities for that something.

Voting to leave the EU, because you're fed up with hardline federalists, worried about the Euro or disgusted by the treatment of Greece; does't make you a racist (I reckon you were wrong, but not evil and I might be wrong on both counts).

So lay off with calling people facists, even by association, on here. Dense is rude, not dictatorial; harsh, not bigoted.

I've felt a little of that racism, firsthand and fear it getting worse.
But it's the same idiots that were always there (there's more than I'd imagined) and they are already being slapped down (see the tram incident today) by people around them.
Emboldened is not empowered.


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[lagerstarfish]

I hope my fellow whiners are all writing to your MPs to explain why you expect their support in remaining in the EU

[seankenny]

Just two points: I've not called them fascists, or racists, or dictatorial, but rather people who have emboldened those types. That's a very different thing. I totally accept they voted for very good reasons - in fact I wrote that too - but I get that saying  that good motivations can lead to awful outcomes and then suggesting they are in some very small way responsible for those outcomes makes people uncomfortable. It's the whole means and ends thing isn't it? If you get what you want, but at the price of your fellow countrymen and women feeling frightened to leave the house - perhaps there was a problem with the way you got it.

And do I believe this shit was there already? Some of it, but that assumes a set level of racism in society. I'm not sure I believe that but I could be wrong. There's no doubt several PhDs worth of work unpicking those sentences.

Anyhow, we now have a soiled and grim element to our national culture but that's okay because no ones making laws on kettles.

[galpinos]

After all, BoJo and Gove-dawg used to be journalists.

Which brings to mind that Stephen Collins cartoon.....

[Oldmanmatt]

Dunning-Kruger effect.

Never affected me, of course.

Ummm...



Much.


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[tomtom]

Meanwhile in the Labour party....

[rich d]

Just been listening to smaller business leaders/owners on radio 4, talk about their hopes for less red tape. Am I the only one who hears this is less workers rights, less environmental protection, less social responsibility traded for increased profit?

[petejh]

Just two points: I've not called them fascists, or racists, or dictatorial, but rather people who have emboldened those types. That's a very different thing. I totally accept they voted for very good reasons - in fact I wrote that too - but I get that saying  that good motivations can lead to awful outcomes and then suggesting they are in some very small way responsible for those outcomes makes people uncomfortable. It's the whole means and ends thing isn't it? If you get what you want, but at the price of your fellow countrymen and women feeling frightened to leave the house - perhaps there was a problem with the way you got it.

Except Sean I don't feel uncomfortable, and I reject your suggestion that I should. Neither should anyone who voted for reasons that aren't rascist/fascist. I reject your suggestion that by voting for local governance over federal governance, which is my wish, I'm responsible for racist or fascist behaviour - racists and fascist are responsible for their own behaviour.

You seem determined to turn your justified anger at experiencing racist/fascist behaviour (and losing the vote?) into a project to blame this on everyone who thinks differently to you. You're attempting to single out people you can blame, instead of thinking about it in terms of powerful events that have their own momentum and consequences.
The referendum question could have been framed in different ways. Framing the question of our membership of the EU as just 'Leave' / 'Remain' inevitably led to each side encompassing a massive landscape of unrepresented beliefs between the two contour lines of Leave and Remain. From far-right xenophobia to left-wing socialism and globalist liberalism and everything in-between.

The referendum was an event responsible for making some people, who had underlying rascist tendencies, to subsequently feel emboldened; an even smaller number of these people actually act out their racist beliefs, which is reflected by a subsequent spike in racist abuse. Some self-belief in doing the right thing will soon stamp that back down.
 
Here's a question. Once people have accepted your blame narrative that they're to blame for the tiny minority of genuinely malicious people - what then? Because people responsible for wrongdoing should be punished in some way no?
You're leveling accusations of racist/fascist complicity at over 17 million people who voted differently to yourself. Taken to its logical extreme your line of thought defines 'irony' and is highly distasteful. You're in danger of acting as a fascist. A well-meaning one - but as you say good intentions sometimes have bad outcomes.

[Fultonius]

Just been listening to smaller business leaders/owners on radio 4, talk about their hopes for less red tape. Am I the only one who hears this is less workers rights, less environmental protection, less social responsibility traded for increased profit?

I hope to be proven wrong, but I fear that this could result in a huge step backwards for the environment, in the UK and the world. It's not as if the current tory government have shown any will to be environmental stewards. Obviously we can boot them out in 4 years, but that's not guaranteed and a lot new laws and regulation will be set by then.

If the article 50 does get instigated, we're going to have to find new and effective ways of trying to influence government policy....but how???

[Johnny Brown]

As a small business owner I find by far the most onerous legal obligation is preparing VAT and Tax returns. Those aren't going anywhere. Our business is in many ways built on 'red tape' - helping people to work safely. It's telling that whenever folk complain about red tape they can never give simple examples.

[El Mocho]

We were really busy until Friday, but eerily quiet since.

Does this mean you might be up for climbing this week? Big Friday? See it's not all bad...

[Will Hunt]

Just been listening to smaller business leaders/owners on radio 4, talk about their hopes for less red tape. Am I the only one who hears this is less workers rights, less environmental protection, less social responsibility traded for increased profit?

I hope to be proven wrong, but I fear that this could result in a huge step backwards for the environment, in the UK and the world.

I think it almost a certainty. Ironically, if sea levels are set to rise it'll be the Leave voters in the eastern flatlands who get hit the worst.
As JB said, it's not "red tape", it's sensible regulation that keeps us and our environment safer and better protected from those that would look to cut corners.

[galpinos]

Interesting link from John Cox on the other channel:

https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/looking-behind-the-brexit-anger/

[Oldmanmatt]

As a small business owner I find by far the most onerous legal obligation is preparing VAT and Tax returns. Those aren't going anywhere. Our business is in many ways built on 'red tape' - helping people to work safely. It's telling that whenever folk complain about red tape they can never give simple examples.

A'fucking'men to that one.

Compared to running shipyards or ships at sea, there is the square root of sod all in the way of regulation in running a small business in the UK.

But, the 'ealf n' saftey, "Bogged down in red tape" narrative has been sold to the masses, for decades.

Often quite falsely, as an excuse to duck out of responsibilities or avoid supplying costly services (at local Government level). 


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[tomtom]

Just been listening to smaller business leaders/owners on radio 4, talk about their hopes for less red tape. Am I the only one who hears this is less workers rights, less environmental protection, less social responsibility traded for increased profit?

I hope to be proven wrong, but I fear that this could result in a huge step backwards for the environment, in the UK and the world.

I think it almost a certainty. Ironically, if sea levels are set to rise it'll be the Leave voters in the eastern flatlands who get hit the worst.
As JB said, it's not "red tape", it's sensible regulation that keeps us and our environment safer and better protected from those that would look to cut corners.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to environmental regulations post Brexit... As we've not really made any regulations over the last 20 years - what will probably happen is we will 'borrow' existing and new EU ones and/or modify as we see fit.

One positive of Brexit is the removal of the CAP - that I don't think has particularly helped our environment or farmers by creating a very false market for agriculture. My worry though, is that CAP provides some form of stability (I wont say protection - as what it does is very subjective) in the environment - and we would need to have suitable and decent regulations put in place. Though the farming lobby is strong with the Tory party (stronger than the environmental lobby) so it might end up with some sort of horrible farming free for all.

I had a chat with one of my National EA friends yesterday - and they didn't have "a fucking clue" what was going to happen..

Of course it might all work out well. Or it might provide an opportunity to re-organise/privatise a whole range of things whilst the rules are being re-written. Or am I being cynical.....

[chris_j_s]

Except Sean I don't feel uncomfortable, and I reject your suggestion that I should. Neither should anyone who voted for reasons that aren't rascist/fascist. I reject your suggestion that by voting for local governance over federal governance, which is my wish, I'm responsible for racist or fascist behaviour - racists and fascist are responsible for their own behaviour.

As a voter who was (is) strongly in the remain camp I have to say I totally agree with you here Pete and am a little disturbed at the treatment you're getting on here from Sean.

To suggest that people can't simply vote one way or the other in a Yes/No referendum without somehow legitimising racism is the biggest load of rubbish I've ever heard.

The only person who is legitimising racism is that twat Farage.

Likewise it cannot be assumed that those who voted purely on immigration concerns are racists either. Whilst I personally believe that immigration is a good thing for our society, people are entitled to the opinion that immigration levels are a problem whilst still retaining the ability to treat their fellow human beings as human beings!

Many people with strong views are opportunists and will use any excuse to express their views (maybe the most polite description of racism ever!). I firmly believe we would have had the same spike had the remain camp won because those same racists were angered at the result. They are just taking advantage of the situation presented to them.

Many others will also have been taking advantage of the result, for example traders shorting the market, making money out of others losses and swooping in to prey on the weakening of the pound. The leave voters didn't legitimise this behaviour either - it's just an unfortunate consequence.

[roddersm]

Does anyone think it would be possible to trade livestock or agricultural produce with the EU if we didn't sign up the CAP?

I can't imagine there wouldn't be very steep tariffs introduced.