[Nibile]

Butterfly effect.
The consequences of this vote will develop for decades and will change the world. It's the end of an era.

[tommytwotone]

Very sad news. Germany will be even more powerful now.
Plus, in a few years Sheffield climbers will need a passport to go to Parisella and LPT, Doylo will never leave NW but we all know it would have happened anyway, and Crouch won't even notice the difference, walking the ten minutes from his house to the Cave. Dave McLeod will never repeat Pilgrimage because he won't get the long-stay visa, and you all will stop going around Euro crags ticking cheap grades. British climbing standards will fall, and you will cry. Hubble will be your only proudness left.

Seriously guys, I am gutted: seeing the reactions of Italian politicians, I think going out was a mistake. When Salvini, who is an idiot and an analphabet, is happy, you're in big trouble.
It's been good so far.

+ 0.8

(Sorry it's because of the exchange rate these days)

 

Never mind all that, what's all this done to the UKB Fuckall to £ sterling exchange rate?

[Duma]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/746289865298444288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Bye bye UK

[Oldmanmatt]

Lot of anger out there.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/06/watch-cyclists-block-car-brexit-campaigner-boris-johnson




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[Oldmanmatt]

I just came out of Natwest, doing the weekly bank; loud, heated discussion going on between a customer and the manager. Natwest have suspended currency exchange until further notice.
Think the poor sod was off on his hols tomorrow.


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[Fadanoid]

I'd bet that he was hoping for a remain result and the pound would have given him a few extra euros for his holiday.

[petejh]

Interesting times ahead.

In the immediate short-term:

...
Source
UBS: Pound to Dollar Rate Unlikely to Fall Below 1.30
UBS have briefed clients with their view on the outlook for sterling noting that there is a floor.

"We expect to see significant volatility in currencies and equities until a greater understanding of the consequences of the UK's decision is gained. In our view, it is reasonable to expect that sterling will settle in the mid 1.30s level against the US dollar until some clarity emerges. Beyond this level, we would note that sterling would be significantly undervalued and markets would probably be reluctant to sell," says Dean Turner at UBS.

Pound Steadier post-Carney
It appears Carney's appearance has aided a recovery in sterling.

At 1.2482 the GBP/EUR is actually not too far below the mid-June lows.

We are still some way above the February lows in the late 1.23s.


Germany's Commerzbank: Markets Will Recover
Commerzbank's chief economist:, Dr Jörg Krämer strikes a positive tone concerning the outlook:

"Markets already reacted strongly today, but not panicky. They could recover again in the medium term, as in our view an amicable divorce with a continued British membership in the single market is the more likely scenario. We also show that the negative impact on the UK real economy will be smaller than in past crises."

Where Next for the Pound v Euro?
Some points to consider:

UBS forecast GBP/EUR at parity
NAB's Parsons forecast GBP/EUR above 1.44 within days of Brexit. The battle of the analysts begin.
Nordea see 1.22 for GBP/EUR as an immediate target.
...

So that's clear then... it's wait and see.

[Oldmanmatt]

Can't find the full text yet and won't watch that again, but did Boris just start back-pedalling?


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[Oldmanmatt]

And again?



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[petejh]

Apols for links!

FTSE 100 today:



3 years:



It's hardly armageddon in the markets. The media are trying to make it sound Very Bad, as media are prone to do. A headline reporting 'Markets drop as much as 8%' is obsolete the minute it's released. The ftse100 is currently 3.5% down. The only meaningful indicator is where the market ends up at the end of today, end of next week, next month, next year, in 5 years and so on.

[Will Hunt]

Harrogate is a 'blue rinse' conservative dominated town,  I'd expect it to be firmly in the leave camp.

Interesting to note that Harrogate was one of three authorities in Yorkshire and Humber that returned a Remain majority.

[Stu Littlefair]

FTSE 100 is mostly international companies, so not the best place to look to see how the market thinks this will affect the UK economy. Not that anyone really has a clue...

[roddersm]

Maybe we can do it all again!

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

[Will Hunt]

As much as I might find the result dissatisfactory, the idea that we can just start again because a (slim) minority didn't like what a (slim) majority voted for is so un-democratic as to be unthinkable. I can't believe people are signing that petition.

The best that can be done now is to vigorously hold those responsible to account as they go about trying to piece the country back together.

[fatneck]

Amen...

[monkoffunk]

Amen...

Agree.

Shame it doesn't fucking exist.

[roddersm]

As much as I might find the result dissatisfactory, the idea that we can just start again because a (slim) minority didn't like what a (slim) majority voted for is so un-democratic as to be unthinkable. I can't believe people are signing that petition.

The best that can be done now is to vigorously hold those responsible to account as they go about trying to piece the country back together.

If this was the other way round 4% would certainly not put the debate to bed for the eurosceptics.

25% of people didn't even vote so only a minority have voted to leave. Given that this such a fundamental a permanent change then a clear majority should be needed as it was in the Scottish referendum. 

The UK is made up of 4 countries two of which had a clear majority to remain and the other two with a small majority to leave.

Also why were commonwealth citizens eligible to vote but yet not EU nationals living in the UK? 

A lot of this that isn't particularly democratic in my opinion. The whole thing was a bad mistake by the government.

[a dense loner]

It was a high turnout and more people voted to leave than to stay in. I really don't see your problem with this if you believe in democracy. Yes you may have issues with what you think is going to happen, but that's not going to change something where every vote counted, no elaborate nonsense how your vote is going to be offset with other areas. One person one vote. Every vote counts. More people wanted out.

Why would an eu national get to vote on the uk leaving the eu?

[tregiffian]

Compare and contrast the figures for the NUT strike ballot 91.7 % of a 25% turnout.

[tomtom]

Its wrong to compare general elections to referendums -  as different voting methods (ie tactical) are used with our first past the post system. But, bear with me -

in terms of large general election turnouts in recent times...

1992, John Major - Tories won 14 million votes
1997, Tony Blair - Labour won 13.5 million votes

Last night - Leave won 17.5 million votes

So talking about the mandate - e.g. number of people voting for one thing, I think its the biggest vote for any one thing in the UK's history (please correct me if I'm wrong, I've only done a bit of research). So whether or not its over 50% of the voting population, its a huge mandate, from 72% of those that could vote (a big turnout for modern times).

So whilst I find the result completely unsavoury (being polite) and think its a very very bad mistake - it's one we should stand by and we need to move forward. Get it done fast. Move on.

[petejh]

I understand your disappointment Roddersm but your argument's going nowhere. For starters, the 25% who didn't vote - they don't count. Literally. Their voices don't count for anything in this issue (except for the tiny percentage unable to vote through sickness/ natural disaster etc.). Additionally no side can claim a voiceless 25% speak for them exclusively.

A linked point (not yours Roddersm I know) is the issue of young voters. The media is reporting howls of protest from young people (18-25) claiming 'not in my name'...
Young people 18-25 have consistently returned the lowest turnout in every recent election and referendum. To put it in context it's highly likely the turnout for 18-24 year-olds in this referendum will be in the mid 50%; compared to high 70% for older voters. That's well worth considering when a student is complaining that they've been disenfranchised. As an overall age group they've got what they put in, a life lesson there if ever there was one.

I agree with the obvious conclusion - voting should be compulsory to avoid these sorts of grumbles.

[slackline]

Idiots 

[erm]

I agree with the obvious conclusion - voting should be compulsory to avoid these sorts of grumbles.

This.

I would add, however, that it should always have required a super-majority (or at least 60%) for a leave. Just too big a question for one half of the country to tell the other half 'suck it'.

[rich d]

The funny thing is that holidays to Benidorm will now be more expensive.

[tomtom]