[Fultonius]

+2

BE BOTHERED!  (if you're not, don't vote - certainly don't just follow the herd)

[a dense loner]

Vote out if you're not bothered. Then you can say you helped change things instead of keeping them the same.

[Fultonius]

Vote out if you're not bothered. Then you can say you helped change things instead of keeping them the same.

WTF    oh Aye, fuck it...let's just have a change, could be a good laugh eh?

[a dense loner]

Laugh? I'm not laughing at all

[erm, sam]

Vote out if you're not bothered. Then you can say you helped change things instead of keeping them the same.

So, you are in a pub with a mate. You have been having a good night, your absolute favorite beer isn't on tonight and there was a bit of rowdyness earlier, but all in all its been a pleasant night. Your mate offers you another pint. You are not sure if you want another, you could have another pint but are feeling a bit full and tired.
What should you do? You could
A. Have the pint.
B. Have a pint of coke or lemonade, after all, you can always have another pint in the next round.
C. Give up alcohol for ever.

In this tedious analogy, Ducko voting out is the same as C. E.g. an extreme response.

[a dense loner]

That's not an analogy. It's someone saying he's been having a good night but doesn't know if he wants another beer.

[finbarrr]

and who is talking about forever?
is great Britain going to drag itself away?
leave ireland behind?
if britain does really badly without the eu, and the eu badly without britain, as we are all told, then in a few years time you'll just join again

[erm, sam]

Yeah, just waltz back in. Won't have to take the Euro, won't have to join Shengen.  Right now we have a great deal in terms of what we don't have to do with Europe, that if we were to want to join again are not guaranted at all. I really don't think it is as simple as "if we don't like it we can just join again".

[SA Chris]

if britain does really badly without the eu, and the eu badly without britain, as we are all told, then in a few years time you'll just join again

No you won't. This isn't a tryout, you don't just go knocking at the door and it opens again. The full reapplication would be a long and tedious process, involving voting by other member states, and renegotiation of terms.


edit - wot he sed.

[Oldmanmatt]

I'd vote out of NATO if it was put to a referendum

I am not sure I would, but in a post-Soviet world NATO does seem less important.

But what about in the world of the post-post-Soviet Putin nationalist thuggery school of foreign policy? He'll will be rubbing his hands at the thought of NATO or the EU becoming less strong. Pick off a few more Baltic states, why not.

If you think we are in a safe, calm, post soviet region....scare yourself a bit reading about the US Army in Europe...  CUrrently tooling up all around the Russian perimeter...

http://www.eur.army.mil/

Absolutely.
And not just the Yanks. The RN presence in the Gulf and IO (where there are legitimate risks to British flagged shipping) has been quietly scaled down over the last 4 months and vessels repositioned this side of the Suez canal.
I figured that was a Syria related move, but some have gone further west than I would have expected and even on Black sea/Dardanelles visits. Pure conjecture of course.

There is also the possibility that the Type 45's really don't like warm water and it's getting embarrassing...


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[Duma]

and who is talking about forever?
is great Britain going to drag itself away?
leave ireland behind?
if britain does really badly without the eu, and the eu badly without britain, as we are all told, then in a few years time you'll just join again

what? do you really think that???

[finbarrr]

of course i don't think it's simple, nothing is.
nor do i think it is impossible

[Oldmanmatt]

If the financial risks are so transitory and the Leave campaign so certain that we can weather any storm, why are the supposed experts, appointed to oversee the health of our economy; so anti-Brexit? The only non-racist argument I have heard anywhere for Brexit is that we will be better able to compete in the global market, our economy will improve and we are in imminent danger of being dragged under in a Euro zone collapse.
Yet the Bank of England say the opposite, that the greatest threat to our economy and prosperity is Brexit, not Euro melt down, despite the Bank being heavily gagged and repeatedly being told to stay out of Politics (as if that were a separate reality, with no real world repercussions).
Am I supposed to believe it's all a Jewish/Rockefeller/Illuminati/Lizard alien conspiracy?

New world order!

(Actually, why is that bad?)

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/005.aspx


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[Oldmanmatt]

Then, there's this:

https://www.facebook.com/brian.king.3994/posts/10209593022524088

Sorry for the facebook link, but:

Are we, again, now saying that our own Academics, at our own premier Universities; don't know what they are talking about but Nige and Boris do?


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[Obi-Wan is lost...]

I can't believe we are even asking the question. The vast majority of the population are simply not qualified to answer such as fundamental question. Trying to think of a good analogy, I suggest it's something like asking a bunch of 16 year olds studying biology to perform heart bypass surgery on a reasonably healthy patient! At the very least a prerequisite of voting in the referendum should be having a degree in macroeconomics. Meanwhile a bunch of people in the 60+ age group are likely to vote us out based on decades of misguided out-of-date rose-tinted ideas of 'how good it used to be'. The fact it won't effect them as it will be decades before the fall-out of an exit has settled. They'll all be long gone. Our kids will be left to pick up the pieces of a crippled isolated back-water economy. Don't think we'll be back in to play any time soon, we'll still be going through the messy divorce decades from now and I dread to think how much the separation will cost the country. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/britain-flirts-with-economic-insanity/2016/05/01/bb8d7a4a-0e1f-11e6-bfa1-4efa856caf2a_story.html?postshare=7891465903206568&tid=ss_tw

[finbarrr]

"it is worth mentioning that the forecasting record of the IMF, the OECD and the Bank of England is rotten"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/05/brexit-forecasters-miss-everything-that-matters-to-real-voters

[Wood FT]

I can't believe we are even asking the question. The vast majority of the population are simply not qualified to answer such as fundamental question. Trying to think of a good analogy, I suggest it's something like asking a bunch of 16 year olds studying biology to perform heart bypass surgery on a reasonably healthy patient! At the very least a prerequisite of voting in the referendum should be having a degree in macroeconomics. Meanwhile a bunch of people in the 60+ age group are likely to vote us out based on decades of misguided out-of-date rose-tinted ideas of 'how good it used to be'. The fact it won't effect them as it will be decades before the fall-out of an exit has settled. They'll all be long gone. Our kids will be left to pick up the pieces of a crippled isolated back-water economy. Don't think we'll be back in to play any time soon, we'll still be going through the messy divorce decades from now and I dread to think how much the separation will cost the country. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/britain-flirts-with-economic-insanity/2016/05/01/bb8d7a4a-0e1f-11e6-bfa1-4efa856caf2a_story.html?postshare=7891465903206568&tid=ss_tw

+1

[Oldmanmatt]

"it is worth mentioning that the forecasting record of the IMF, the OECD and the Bank of England is rotten"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/05/brexit-forecasters-miss-everything-that-matters-to-real-voters

Seriously? Because there was once a recession/crisis all those organisations must now be idiots, who know nothing (despite lessons learned)?

The worst part about all this is that no-one will change their position based on any evidence, good or bad, because it really only hinges on whether you are an "us and them" person or of an "all together" bent (not necessarily racist, just nationalistic).

But I'm bombarded with stuff like this:



On the one hand, and this:



On the other and I know which makes more sense to me.

I know thst's a bit of a straw man, but give me something more persuasive than "they made a mistake once".

Oh, and Boris is well clued up, like, inn 'e..

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4NewsDemocracy/videos/992615087483101/

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[jwi]

No one can possibly believe absolute bullshit like that “EU regulation of cabbage” is nearly half a short novel in length. Without googling I confidently predict that there is no specific EU-wide regulation of cabbage at all.

[a dense loner]

I don't need to give you anything persuasive Matt, just vote how you want

[finbarrr]

"it is worth mentioning that the forecasting record of the IMF, the OECD and the Bank of England is rotten"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/05/brexit-forecasters-miss-everything-that-matters-to-real-voters

Seriously? Because there was once a recession/crisis all those organisations must now be idiots, who know nothing (despite lessons learned)?


I know thst's a bit of a straw man, but give me something more persuasive than "they made a mistake once".

They are wrong quite often.
Just ask anyone in Greece
Or look at the first graph in this link
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/22/five-trends-that-will-shape-the-future-of-the-u-s-economy/
http://online.wsj.com/media/imf-growth-projections.png

[petejh]

Will everyone stop posting links that nobody gives a shit about reading, especially you Matt. It doesn't make you look smarter, you're just posting links. 
 The world's flooded with information to the point we're overwhelmed by informed opinions on both sides of every topic under the sun. It'll all be alright, just close your eyes, draw an X and hope for the best we'll work it out..

[Oldmanmatt]

No one can possibly believe absolute bullshit like that “EU regulation of cabbage” is nearly half a short novel in length.

If only that were true...


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[Nigel]

No one can possibly believe absolute bullshit like that “EU regulation of cabbage” is nearly half a short novel in length.

If only that were true...

It isn't: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b074zy97#play - Link to Radio 4 More Or Less which is a stats / economics show which explodes this cabbage regs myth. Been a while since I listened to it but it is false and the perpetuation or an urban myth from early c20 America, though the regs do exist and are not short. They are also written by the British Cabbage Growers Lot if I recall correctly i.e. they would be precisely the same if we left.

[Nigel]

Update - the section on cabbages was coincidentally (!!) re-broadcasted today on R4. Link - http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07hjy4z