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The inequality issue (Read 128711 times)

Sasquatch

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#250 Re: The inequality issue
October 16, 2014, 09:27:41 pm
I think what Toby's saying is that the overall distrust of the financial markets had led those with money to put aside (even in small amounts) to not invest in the markets.  This has been made worse by the media's portrayal of the "little" guy "day trader", who can no longer compete with the big number crunchers.   The problem is that small investers are not "day traders".  Small investers should be investing in a reasonably diverse long term portfolio, and not fussing about day to day changes.  The classic example of this is the latest 2008 "crash".  If you just continued investing and didn't even fuss about it, and maintained a long term view, you'll likely have averaged an annual return from 2007-2014 somewhere betwen 5-10%.  Which is great for a small invester with a long term view.  Day traders are those who make their base living from trading each day on the market. 


The problem with this is that the rich are still investing and getting those higher returns while the poor are pulling out the markets and getting no return, and therefore the gap is widening. 

I'd argue that the spread in "disposable" income is a bigger cause for the widening gap though, and this directly leads to the investing issue.   

andy popp

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#251 Re: The inequality issue
October 16, 2014, 09:42:24 pm
The problem with this is that the rich are still investing and getting those higher returns while the poor are pulling out the markets and getting no return, and therefore the gap is widening. 

I'd argue that the spread in "disposable" income is a bigger cause for the widening gap though, and this directly leads to the investing issue.

This.

The media/day-trading thing is a red-herring as far as I can see; it might be different in the US but I can't remember the last time it was discussed in the press here.

Sasquatch

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#252 Re: The inequality issue
October 16, 2014, 10:03:19 pm
The problem with this is that the rich are still investing and getting those higher returns while the poor are pulling out the markets and getting no return, and therefore the gap is widening. 

I'd argue that the spread in "disposable" income is a bigger cause for the widening gap though, and this directly leads to the investing issue.

This.

The media/day-trading thing is a red-herring as far as I can see; it might be different in the US but I can't remember the last time it was discussed in the press here.

Yes/no.  The barriers to entry are also a substantial issue, and one that the fear mongering from the media has made worse.  If you are already at a point where investing anything is a high risk proposition in that you don't have the spare change to possibly lose, and trading itself costs money,  and then the media tells you the game is rigged, you're going to be even less likely to invest. 

My wife has a college degree, makes good money, and is very financially conservative.  It has taken me years to convince her that investing is a good thing.  And now 18 months later she's starting to get the hang of it.  How do you propose to encourage low-income non-educated people to do this?  I can't see it.  Especially not when the media keeps saying the sky is falling. 

 

shark

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#253 Re: The inequality issue
October 16, 2014, 11:05:59 pm
I keep coming back to this chart (I posted a link to the whole World Bank report earlier in this thread). Globalisation/ free market believers emphasise the whole picture and especially the gains for the lowest 10% - 70% income group, who are almost all in developing countries, whilst others are looking at the shape in the 75%-100% zone, with that trough of developed world low-income workers getting "left behind".




I don't understand this chart let alone what it demonstrates - I've even asked my son. There doesn't seem to be a time axis. Can someone explain in simple terms ....

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#254 Re: The inequality issue
October 16, 2014, 11:16:13 pm
The X axis represents the different groups of income distribution.  (Low earners to high earners)

The Y axis shows the percentage change in real income over twenty years for each group

Conclusion, everyone except the <=10th percentile group (the very lowest on the poverty line) and the group between the 60th and 95th percentile (probably most of the UK, US, APAC and European Working & Middle Class) was a winner with over 50% increase in real earnings.

petejh

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#255 Re: The inequality issue
October 16, 2014, 11:21:48 pm
The time axis is 1988 - 2008.

You're represented by the blue blob 4th, 5th or 6th from the right - depending on how under/overpriced your consultancy rates are.

You're losing ground to the blue blobs right and left of you which represent, to the right, oil oligarchs and Bill Gates or to the left, African farmers and sweatshop employees.

But at least you have an Audi/BMW/Mercedes and a buy-to-let.

Sasquatch

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#256 Re: The inequality issue
October 16, 2014, 11:39:38 pm
I'd bet he's in the 2nd or 3rd blob along with most of us on here.  (at those who have jobs :) )

The developed world only accounts for maybe 15-20% of the worlds population, so we're all in the right 5-6 dots. Within the developed world, I'd guess we're mostly in the upper 1/2 of that, which moves us into the rightmost 2-3 dots.  The worst performers would appear to be the lower class in developed countries. 

galpinos

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#257 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 11:05:37 am
£25k net puts you in the top 1% globally for income so I'd imagine a lot of UKB are sitting pretty on the righty hand side if the graph.

(Dodgy source: http://www.globalrichlist.com)

Shark, could you really not understand the graph?

shark

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#258 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 01:33:49 pm
Quote from: galpinos link=topic=24180.msg463030#msg463030
d

Shark, could you really not understand the graph?

No but I do now. I was looking for a rate of change rather than the absolute change between one date and another.

Sloper

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#259 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 01:52:16 pm
£25k net puts you in the top 1% globally for income so I'd imagine a lot of UKB are sitting pretty on the righty hand side if the graph.

(Dodgy source: http://www.globalrichlist.com)

Shark, could you really not understand the graph?

£25k net also puts you significantly above the median in the UK as well.

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#260 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 02:50:16 pm
£25k net puts you in the top 1% globally for income so I'd imagine a lot of UKB are sitting pretty on the righty hand side if the graph.

I'm sure I'll get this wrong, and need Habrich to explain, but as the graph is in income rather than population, I think there's still going to be a several blobs on the right of £25k to account for those earning in the £100K's and £1m's?

Median for full time employment in UK in 2013 was £27k http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ashe/annual-survey-of-hours-and-earnings/2013-provisional-results/stb-ashe-statistical-bulletin-2013.html

Sloper

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#261 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 03:58:06 pm
You're right about that, i.e. getting it wrong.

The graph is about income distribution, i.e. the range from 0% to 100% and how each decile has changed.

The actual amounts are not a data point on the graph.

So the 0% would probably be someone in a Labour camp in North Korea and the 100% point the Bill Gates / Warren buffet etc

What the boundaries are of the various deciles would be interesting, but I think the point of the graphs  is the relativity.

Stubbs, you also misread the point about £25k figure being net, i.e. take home pay of £2083 pe month whcih is something like £32500 gross.

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#262 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 04:08:38 pm
And that sort of sums up why I should not post on these sorts of threads!

Sloper

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#263 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 04:36:22 pm
I disagree, if these threads were left only to those who considered themselves 'experts' etc then this place would be much less interesting and less of the resource than it is.

What is interesting here is how the debate has now moved on to to what appears to be an general acceptance (or at least an absence of strident rejection) of the porposition that inequality between the '1%' and everyone else isn't much of an issue despite what Russell brand might say.

Sasquatch

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#264 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 04:57:01 pm
Actually, I don't think that's the case.  I think there's a huge amount of simmering unrest in the group at the low point on that graph, which happens to be the lower class groups in developed nations.  Which I think was more of the original question. 

I disagree, if these threads were left only to those who considered themselves 'experts' etc then this place would be much less interesting and less of the resource than it is.
:agree:

petejh

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#265 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 05:14:23 pm
But, as Sloper said, I think that any 'simmering unrest' is between low-income and mid/high income folk in developed nations. And not between low-income folk and multi-billionaires.
The people with low-paying jobs struggling for quality of life in an expensive world, seeing the people with high-paying jobs swanning off into the distance, buying up houses to rent, getting better health-care and perpetuating the gap through expensive education.
Perhaps?

Sasquatch

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#266 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 06:24:49 pm
But, as Sloper said, I think that any 'simmering unrest' is between low-income and mid/high income folk in developed nations. And not between low-income folk and multi-billionaires.
The people with low-paying jobs struggling for quality of life in an expensive world, seeing the people with high-paying jobs swanning off into the distance, buying up houses to rent, getting better health-care and perpetuating the gap through expensive education.
Perhaps?
I'm not so sure. I could be wrong, but I don't think the low-income people are upset with the middle  or upper middle class, as they tend to see that group as working for a real wage, and still "earning" their income.  The idea that the millionaire group don't actually "earn" their incomes is part of the distrust.
 
but add that almost without fail, people put themselves into a lower bracket than reality.  This leads much of the middle class deceiving themselves into thinking they're poor without actually knowing what "poor" is, and much of the upper middle class thinking they're "normal middle class" and not having a clue that they aren't. 

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#267 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 06:48:48 pm
What is interesting here is how the debate has now moved on to to what appears to be an general acceptance (or at least an absence of strident rejection) of the porposition that inequality between the '1%' and everyone else isn't much of an issue despite what Russell brand might say.
I'm unconvinced by this.  While in the the UK there isn't a definite trend as yet for strongly increasing income inequality over the general population (as opposed to the top 0.1%)  this has happened in the US where middle incomes have seen very little real increase over the last 30 years and the increase in GDP per capita over time is increasingly being mostly absorbed by a smaller and smaller elite.  I feel there must be a risk that higher and higher 'super' salaries at the top of business feed down to management levels and this could lead to similar trends in the UK which I believe would definitely be a bad thing.

BTW just so we can be clear on terms entry to the top 1% in the UK is an income of around £125,000 pa so were not talking about multi millionaire s.

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#268 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 07:20:51 pm
What is interesting here is how the debate has now moved on to to what appears to be an general acceptance (or at least an absence of strident rejection) of the porposition that inequality between the '1%' and everyone else isn't much of an issue despite what Russell brand might say.
Glad I'm not the only one to disagree with this. Even from a non left perspective we are getting strong warnings that economies are built on healthy middle class growth  (as things seem to be going into reverse in the west for the middle classes whilst the super rich are protected). From my perspective we are are being scammed and robbed by the executive classes and their political cronies and they get bolder in this every year.

Sasquatch

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#269 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 07:34:42 pm
Glad I'm not the only one to disagree with this. Even from a non left perspective we are getting strong warnings that economies are built on healthy middle class growth  (as things seem to be going into reverse in the west for the middle classes whilst the super rich are protected).
But that's not really what's happening.  The middle class has seen quite good growth, not on the scale of the super rich, or on the scale of the developing nations, but still solid growth.  The least growth seems to be at the lower end of developed nations. 

I'd argue that the bitching of the middle class is more do to with the "keeping up with the Jones" rather than reality. 

From my perspective we are are being scammed and robbed by the executive classes and their political cronies and they get bolder in this every year.

This one becomes really complicated, as most of the execs are deriving a large portion of their money from shareholdings increases, which are also held by huge institutional investors.  These huge institutional investers are generally operating with the money from the middle class, so the middle class is also benefitting. This is where the poor are losing massive ground.

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#270 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 08:52:54 pm
Actually, I don't think that's the case.  I think there's a huge amount of simmering unrest in the group at the low point on that graph, which happens to be the lower class groups in developed nations.  Which I think was more of the original question. 

I disagree, if these threads were left only to those who considered themselves 'experts' etc then this place would be much less interesting and less of the resource than it is.
:agree:
[\quote]

I don't agree that in the global sense there's people in the 10-20 %centile raging against those in the 20-30 %centile, nor other than in the dining rooms of Primrose Hill (cheap stereotype alert) do I think that people are raging in this country against the next centile above their income level: indeed, f anything in my experience the 'working poor' are more likely to rage against the people on benefits who are able to live a lifestyle not dissimilar to their own without putting in a full shift.

Offwidth, as for the super rich and their cronies gaming the system to maintain their privileged, you find this more in corrupt and often (though of course not exclusively) 'leftist' states, in liberal capitalist democracies the ability of even the most wealthy plutocrat to manipulate elections is very limited indeed.


Finally I would suggest that economic growth is mainly derived by expansion of the working class i.e. the 30-60 %centile as they are, a. more numerous b. less likely to save/invest and c. more likely to follow consumerist trends, (snob alert).

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#271 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 10:33:56 pm

Finally I would suggest that economic growth is mainly derived by expansion of the working class i.e. the 30-60 %centile as they are, a. more numerous b. less likely to save/invest and c. more likely to follow consumerist trends, (snob alert).

Exactly the point - in the US this the group (middle class in the American sense rather than the UK privileged upper income sense) is no longer sharing in increasing national income.  If they are the long term engine of the increases in prosperity we have seen in the second half of the 20th century maybe we should all worry, irrespective of what her you think inequality is a moral issue.

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#272 Re: The inequality issue
October 17, 2014, 11:24:43 pm
Completely agree with habrich and Sasquach re the perception of investing. However I think in this country it has also been affected by the points Andy made previously.

We grew up with the privatisation of all the previously nationalised industries and it was sold to the people as an opportunity to be a nation of shareholders. What actually happened was the opposite as most people took the quick buck and immediately sold their tiny stake for a profit (like a mini version of Abramovich & co getting shares for vodka).

And the same happened with the building societies. Nobody was going to complain about getting £1500 for "nothing" as it was seen.

Coupled with the fact that lots of people lost a fortune in badly managed personal pension funds it's not surprising that trust in investing in shares isn't that great for most people in the UK.

I'm guilty myself as even though I can see the returns can be great I'm extremely wary as I've seen some horror stories first hand. In some ways it seems you just need to be sensible and look at the long term to get a good return. In others it looks as if a decent slice of luck is required too.

habrich, I recall you saying that you took a pretty big risk which worked out. Had it not, do you think you would have the same general opinion on investing or would it have been affected?

I'd also be interested to hear the longer version of your "gambling on house prices" comment, but as you said, that's going massively off topic.....

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#273 Re: The inequality issue
October 18, 2014, 01:16:15 pm
But that's not really what's happening.  The middle class has seen quite good growth, not on the scale of the supebr rich, or on the scale of the developing nations, but still solid growth.  The least growth seems to be at the lower end of developed nations.  I'd argue that the bitching of the middle class is more do to with the "keeping up with the  Jones"

....most of the execs are deriving a large portion of their money from shareholdings increases, which are also held by huge institutional investors.  These huge institutional investers are generally operating with the money from the middle class, so the middle class is also benefitting. This is where the poor are losing massive ground.

We will have to agree to disagree (which was sort of my point about Slopers view about agreement being wrong  (there are split views on this).  Middle class income versus expenditure in the US has already hit serious levels of decline and seems to be starting to drop here and in Europe after flatlining for a while. Sure the middle class are not poverty striken (unless you are one of those unfortunate americans who lost job, house and health insurance) but if they do drive an economy then ignoring the issues is pretty dumb.

The rich people I know have diversified away from stocks a lot....too much money is made on fluctuations eating away at long term profit. They have got a lot richer in Europe while middle classes flatlined and in the US they got a lot richer. The poor are of course much more deserving of sympathy and have had things much harder but thats beside the points I made.

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#274 Re: The inequality issue
October 18, 2014, 01:38:35 pm
Hats off boys and girls.  Very informative thread and a quality debate.

 

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