I've always thought there is no particular logic to investing in shares and getting a guaranteed return as markets are so volatile and economics seems to be something of a black art.Seems I may be onto something as it turns out a cat beat The Observers experts last year Cats > Fat Cats
More interesting question: given that 10% is a pretty good return but not far off the long-run average for equity investment, did the newspaper advise its readers to be fully invested in stocks in 2012, or instead write hand-wringing stuff about how the euro zone would implode, china economy collapse, etc and therefore should be cautious and keep most if your money earning f-all in the bank. I don't know but I would strongly bet on the latter.
I've had a bit of a schooling over the last 6 years seeing my shares halve then nearly double leaving me just below break even when I sold the majority to help buy our house since when they have gone up a further 20% I find it a fascinating game. If you aren't prepared to immerse yourself then a tracker in an ISA like Toby says is probably the best approach investing money you can afford to lose ideally in a tax protected wrapper like an ISA. If you want to be more actively involved then it seems to me that it can take a while (and potentially be costly) before finding an investment style or strategy that suits your personality which can give you a consistent edge over the market. Many don't get there. Some think they have then got burnt - I know a couple of people who have lost horrendous sums.
Quote from: shark on January 16, 2013, 12:59:35 pm I know a couple of people who have lost horrendous sums.Like Arthur Dent and Ford Prefect - "What do you get when you mutiply six by nine?"?
I know a couple of people who have lost horrendous sums.
Quote from: aLICErOBERTSfANkLUB on January 16, 2013, 01:14:07 pmQuote from: shark on January 16, 2013, 12:59:35 pm I know a couple of people who have lost horrendous sums.Like Arthur Dent and Ford Prefect - "What do you get when you mutiply six by nine?"?42. That's not horrendous.
Made and lost £40k on an uninformed punt on a fiber-optics infrastructure co during the tech bubble in the 90's. Currently invested in rare earths and gold in the US and Canada. I think there's a level of research, above which, making a profit is more probable than letting a domestic cat choose your investments. Below that level of research yeah let the cat do it or throw a dart. Read Nate Silver's 'the signal and the noise' - can't argue with his conclusions about wall street traders.
Quote from: petejh on January 16, 2013, 03:06:23 pmMade and lost £40k on an uninformed punt on a fiber-optics infrastructure co during the tech bubble in the 90's. Currently invested in rare earths and gold in the US and Canada. I think there's a level of research, above which, making a profit is more probable than letting a domestic cat choose your investments. Below that level of research yeah let the cat do it or throw a dart. Read Nate Silver's 'the signal and the noise' - can't argue with his conclusions about wall street traders.Maybe I should buy shares in companies that produce graphene then?
What does your cat think?
One says yes, one says no, and the other isn't sure (probably 'cause he's deaf and blind and didn't understand the question).
I think you can ask too many analysts. I'd go with the analyst cat with the best track record.
Its a bit like Turkeys writing about Christmas.