[stone]

I was really rather agitated when I watched Jaspersharpes link:

Salmond's dodging of the question and insulting dismissiveness to Faisal Islam here.....

https://medium.com/@faisalislam/salmond-declares-victory-in-the-currency-war-295aaada44be

It's a very simple and clever plan that's been used many times before to whip up nationalistic fervour and it seems to have worked very well.

Pretty depressing that so many people have fallen for it.

Any one who believes that the currency union skeptics are all mimics of Alistair Darling are mistaken.

This sent me rummaging on our hard drive to dig out a letter that I sent to our local (Tory) MP back in 12thAug2012:

Dear Andrew Bingham,
I’m not concerned about whether or not Scotland becomes independent from England but I’m extremely concerned that we seem to be sleep walking into a possible currency union with an independent Scotland. I wish I heard our government flatly refuse to provide central bank services to any independent Scotland. I’m extremely grateful to previous Conservative governments for being so emphatic in stating that a currency union can only work with fiscal union and fiscal union requires political union. The Conservatives (especially Nigel Lawson) have been consistent in explaining that the euro was always a stupid, unworkable, arrangement. If, in the future, we no longer have political union with Scotland, then it is imperative that currency union with Scotland is severed at the same time.
You previously pointed out that anyone in the world is free to use GBP as a foreign currency. In principle I quite agree that an independent Scotland would be free to use GBP in that way; much as Montenegro uses the euro. That misses the crucial point. The Scottish independence movement are not saying that they intend to use GBP as Montenegro uses the euro. They are saying that they will be in a currency union with England in the same way as Greece is in a currency union with Germany. They say that the Bank of England will be a lender of last resort backstopping Scottish banks and a buyer of last resort backstopping Scottish Government bonds. That will embroil us in the same fiasco that the euro zone is plagued by.
Currently, whenever our government deficit spends, that creates a government borrowing requirement together with bank reserves that end up being eventually spent on treasury bonds to fund that borrowing requirement. In contrast, whenever Greece deficit spends, the bank reserves created can leak away to purchases of German, French, etc. treasury bonds rather than being available for funding the Greek government borrowing requirement. If someone holding GBP were to choose to buy German government bonds, they would need to first exchange the GBP with euros and that would leave the GBP in the hands of whoever they exchanged the euros with and so on until someone spent the GBP on UK treasury bonds in a treasury auction or paid the GBP as tax -either way funding the UK government borrowing requirement.
This may seem an arcane tedious point but a primary responsibility of government is to provide a currency system that does not disrupt the economy. The euro zone is a catastrophic failure. I thought we had more good sense here.


Yours sincerely, Stone Elworthy.

[Sloper]

Well if Sloper is right and the weather will have a large influence, it's not looking good; fog and a light drizzle. Delightful

You mean everyone will be at the beach enjoying a the Scottish summer?

People are always more motivated to vote for change than stasis, and I think that the Yes voters by and large would walk througha howling gale whereas many of the No voters are characterised as Labour sheep (not by me) and may well not turn out in such numbers through poor weather.

[tomtom]

Stone - did your MP reply? Was it a letter or email...

I've used email to ours over the last few years and always got a response...

Mind you - given the intellect of many of our elected representatives a picture of a kitten is more likely to get a response...

[tim palmer]

Well if Sloper is right and the weather will have a large influence, it's not looking good; fog and a light drizzle. Delightful

You mean everyone will be at the beach enjoying a the Scottish summer?

People are always more motivated to vote for change than stasis, and I think that the Yes voters by and large would walk througha howling gale whereas many of the No voters are characterised as Labour sheep (not by me) and may well not turn out in such numbers through poor weather.

Not true,  the majority of people are naturally cautious in the voting booth and in life, this is a trend which has been illustrated by innumerable elections and psychological studies; I pray that this is true today. 
It is a very sad state of affairs that tub-thumping nationalism is on the rise in the UK (both sides of the border), causing tribalism and blinding people to the dangers of economic and social division. 

[Sloper]

I dind't make myself entirely clear, my view is that when it comes to turning out, those who are voting for change are more likely to turn out to vote for the satus quo: something that may be compounded by the fact that many on the no side are characterised as being less likely to turn out in any event.  hence turnout in large swathes of Glasgow (the bet hope for a NO vote) being c.50% vs a national average of 65% (2010 figures)

Of course this is not the same as a GE, but I think most observers agree it will be turnout that decides it; if there's a +/-3 variation in turnout between those who in surveys said 'yes' vs 'no' then the Yes campaign will swing it, if we see turnough below say 75% then I think it wil be a Yes, anything above that and it will still eb all int he mix.

[tim palmer]

How do we know who is going to turn up?
This is process is unprecedented in the uk,  the only thing that could be said with any confidence is the older portion of the population will vote because they always do. 
One could argue the no vote will turn up because they realise what will be lost in the event of a 'yes', pensions, the NHS, economic stability etc.
All the pollsters admit that their predictions are pretty dodgy because there is little precedent for this process in the uk

[lagerstarfish]

Stone,

you should have signed your MP letter Dr Stone

and maybe a list of your recent redpoints

[stone]

Stone - did your MP reply? Was it a letter or email...

I've used email to ours over the last few years and always got a response...

Mind you - given the intellect of many of our elected representatives a picture of a kitten is more likely to get a response...

He didn't reply but that letter I pasted here was in response to his reply to my first letter about the issue, so he did seem to be engaging in it.

[Falling Down]

He was my MP too 'til I moved away. A good one too (who had proper job and all that beforehand) used to drink in my local and used to see him on the train regularly up and down to the big smoke,

[Sloper]

How do we know who is going to turn up?
This is process is unprecedented in the uk,  the only thing that could be said with any confidence is the older portion of the population will vote because they always do. 
One could argue the no vote will turn up because they realise what will be lost in the event of a 'yes', pensions, the NHS, economic stability etc.
All the pollsters admit that their predictions are pretty dodgy because there is little precedent for this process in the uk

We don't know who's going to turn up, and as you say this is an unprecendented event: however it is reasonable to suggest that sections of society which have previously been less likely to vote are also less likely to vote this time.

The big unknown is how the 16-18 year olds will vote and also in what numbers.

The no campaign has been based on getting the Labour vote to turn out and vote no, IF they don't then the chances of a Yes vote increase enormously.

[tomtom]

I'll wager you a pint its a yes Sloper.

[Johnny Brown]

Betpay are already paying out for no wagers.

[SamT]

 
Have you seen the odds -

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

its been an dead cert on a No Vote for months.  The bookies are rarely too far out.

[Jaspersharpe]

Have you seen the odds -

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

its been an dead cert on a No Vote for months.  The bookies are rarely too far out.

Interesting. I wouldn't say they had No as a dead cert, clear favourite obviously.

I always think it's worth looking at the Betfair exchange odds and how the money is moving....

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.110033387&mpch=ads&rfr=63

Loads of cash still available to match at about 1.2 which is far from a done deal. More like the home team being 1-0 up with about 15 mins to go. It is very gradually coming in though.

When do the exit polls start to come through? http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

Oh.

[tomtom]

I wouldnt draw too much into the odds...

For a couple of reasons:

First there has never been a poll quite like this - with this level of engagement and turnout - that is as close as it is..

Second, early on in the process the bookies took a shed load on No - they stand to lose far more on a no result than a yes - so they're trying to get people to pile onto yes-  hence better odds...

[Jaspersharpe]

That's why I think the exchange odds and movement of cash are more interesting.

Despite there being no exit polls (which as that article says is really shit) it'll be interesting to see how prices shift. Not that I'll be staying up all night to watch!

[tomtom]

Yes - first results from 2am.. I'll be in the land of nod/listening to MrsTT snoring by then...

[SamT]

Interesting. I wouldn't say they had No as a dead cert, clear favourite obviously.

Fair comment

[lagerstarfish]

Yes - first results from 2am.. I'll be in the land of nod/listening to MrsTT snoring by then...

now that is multi-tasking

[tim palmer]

We don't know who's going to turn up, and as you say this is an unprecendented event: however it is reasonable to suggest that sections of society which have previously been less likely to vote are also less likely to vote this time.

The big unknown is how the 16-18 year olds will vote and also in what numbers.

The no campaign has been based on getting the Labour vote to turn out and vote no, IF they don't then the chances of a Yes vote increase enormously.

Sorry I lost your train of thought there…..
Are you still suggesting a swing to yes is likely or unlikely?

[tomtom]

Yes - first results from 2am.. I'll be in the land of nod/listening to MrsTT snoring by then...

now that is multi-tasking

Sadly its an either or situation...

[Oldmanmatt]

Yes - first results from 2am.. I'll be in the land of nod/listening to MrsTT snoring by then...

now that is multi-tasking

Sadly its an either or situation...

Bit like the referendum really...

[tomtom]

Yes - first results from 2am.. I'll be in the land of nod/listening to MrsTT snoring by then...

now that is multi-tasking

Sadly its an either or situation...

Bit like the referendum really...

Thankfully it can change every night...

[webbo]

Yes - first results from 2am.. I'll be in the land of nod/listening to MrsTT snoring by then...

now that is multi-tasking

Sadly its an either or situation...

Bit like the referendum really...

Thankfully it can change every night...

And hopefully the fat sociopath won't be hanging around either.

[Oldmanmatt]

Yes - first results from 2am.. I'll be in the land of nod/listening to MrsTT snoring by then...

now that is multi-tasking

Sadly its an either or situation...

Bit like the referendum really...

Thankfully it can change every night...

And hopefully the fat sociopath won't be hanging around either.

But, like the indyref...

Only 50% will be happy come tomorrow morning.