[Jaspersharpe]

Has anyone read anything even slightly convincing on the Yes movement's plans for Scotland's currency? Because I haven't.

It's quite amazing that so many people seem to be happy to ignore the most important point in the whole debate. Salmond just says "oh it's ok it'll work one way or another" and everyone accepts it when everything I've read points very obviously to the fact that no, you dick, it wont.

I realise this is from the Torygraph but I haven't seen anything that even comes near to refuting the points made in it......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11083005/The-big-deceit-at-the-heart-of-Alex-Salmonds-Yes-campaign.html

[SA Chris]

Has anyone read anything even slightly convincing on the Yes movement's plans for Scotland's currency? Because I haven't.

It's quite amazing that so many people seem to be happy to ignore the most important point in the whole debate. Salmond just says "oh it's ok it'll work one way or another" and everyone accepts it when everything I've read points very obviously to the fact that no, you dick, it wont.

Those who want to believe believe. I queried an avid YES voting mate on this, and his response was "it's all in the white paper". I asking him if he'd actually verified the facts, or even read this hallowed document and he said "no, it was put together by people smarter than me, so they must know what they were talking about".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11082964/Scottish-independence-New-poll-shows-battle-for-Union-neck-and-neck.html

[GazM]

I'm quite enjoying the socialist bandwagonry that's going on up here. 

Most of the Yes-leaning voters I've spoken to seem to be basing there vote on this being an opportunity to change the system (fight the power etc) and trotting out generic non-specific revolutionary manifestos more in line with Guevara than Salmond.  Building small, local, bottom-up government, equality, justice etc.

I love the idealism and I'd vote for that, but HOW are they proposing to do it?

What the Yes campaign is actually talking about delivering is just a smaller version of the current UK, based on the same economic principles, the same banks, the same businesses, but with less security and based on a resource that no-one knows how much there is and will definitely run out one day.  And what are they saying about renewables?  NOTHING!

[Oldmanmatt]

As I understand, the EU has confirmed that an Independent Scotland would need to re-apply for membership of the block?

This would leave any Scot living and working in the EU without the right to abode and unlikely to retain job or residence?

In fact, visa agreements all over the world would need to be renegotiated.

I'm starting a campaign for an independent  Wessex (with a new king. Anyone named Alfred May apply), just so we can be slightly less important on the world stage than  Luxembourg...

[Sloper]

Is that Brian's brother who produced 'badger, badger, badger'?

My view is the likes of Cameron, Clegg and Miliabnd going North is little short of a white flag and Salmond will come out of their visit with more ammunition and gravitas than the other three could muster between them.

[SA Chris]

As I understand, the EU has confirmed that an Independent Scotland would need to re-apply for membership of the block?

I think this can be shortcutted if the existing member states vote that Scotland can go straight in, then no reapplication is needed. Maybe losing to Germany last night wasn't such a bad idea.

[Sloper]

I can imagine that Spain and Italy would be very keen to see Scotland kept out of the EU for as long as possible to damp down the nascent indpendence campaigns in Lombardy and Catalan (let alone the Basque country).

And then there's the Belgians. . . .

[petejh]

A smart investor would be in big on supplies of little plastic Scottish flags. With a hedge on Union flags.

[Fultonius]

The guy who put £800,000 on 'No' is going to have the squeakiest bum for the next 10 days.

[Johnny Brown]

Has anyone read anything even slightly convincing on the Yes movement's plans for Scotland's currency?

No. Independence whilst remaining tied to the pound seems pointless.

[Jaspersharpe]

Yeah exactly. Which is why I've considered the whole thing to be a massive vanity project for Salmond from the start.

[Fultonius]

The currency union is probably my biggest difficulty with the whole thing.

However, even with the drawbacks of the currency union, I would not say it is pointless:

No more house of Lords.

Proportional representation.

Possibility of never waging war against anyone, ever again.

A very interesting mix up of the political structure; I am very excited to see what parties and policies come out of the wash if the vote is Yes. I'm hoping for a party to emerge with these ideals:
Strong business plans, but at no cost to the environment.
A move away from over-reliance of financial capitalism
Expansion of offshore renewables and solar
Efficient local government - no massive expansion of public sector, but no austerity drive either
Protect the NHS, with good plans for sensible modernisation and improvement but a break form the BBC NHS bashing that seems to be crushing morale.
Good public services and infrastructure (new A9, finish the Tram etc.) Free, high quality childcare for all.

A re-engagement of the general populace with politics.

A good boot-up-the-arse for the Westminster elite.

Economics are my main worry - yes, have a reasonably strong export market. This shouldn't change. We may lose some big banks to south of the border - big loss of tax income (although, not from RBS or LLoyds at the moment, so no great loss), also big loss of risk to balance it out (if we don't have the banks, we don't have to bail them out when they fuck up, again, which they will).

Sovereign wealth fund? Seems unlikely in the short term as we have no national oil companies, these days most of the North Sea is owned and operated by China, America and other overseas owners, so we can only get tax. Increasing tax rates would deter investment and be transferred to public at the pump and leccy bills, so a tricky balancing act. Maybe implement a windfall tax scheme for high oil price years, to prevent re-structuring to avoid annual taxation?
So, on the whole, we'll probably get about the same from the black gold as we do now.  (unless that Clair Field rumour IS true, then we're onto a bonanza - watch this space!) For me - that's a bit "pie in the sky".

Looking at Iceland, it seems like when their banks disappeared it was a great boon for other industries as there was a reverse "brain drain", although, this effect would probably be much less since moving from Iceland to London/Madrid/New York would be a much bigger jump than Edinburgh to London. In fact, as I type this, it seems that this is probably not really worth considering. Too easy to move.So we'd definitely lose jobs.

I don't feel the monetary union is a total show stopper though - it works for Denmark and Hong Kong, the CHF is currently pegged to the Euro. What's stopping us having a full union to begin with, see how it goes? If we start to feel the need to inflate/deflate our currency at a later date could we not then split from the pound? 

My other worries - Loss of international influence.
EU complications.
Being associated with Nationalists!
Consigning all the non-tories to be ruled for all by the Sloperistas of the world.... (Sorry about that guys)

9 days to decide.

[Jaspersharpe]

Fultonius I'm interested to know if you read the article I linked to earlier and if you have any information that can actually denounce it's supposed facts?

Not being a cunt, it's just that I can't find anything that isn't "pie in the sky" bollocks, and it's the crux of the matter.

All the positives you mention mean absolutely fuck all if the currency issue isn't sorted out because they won't happen.

[Johnny Brown]

Good to see something genuinely reinvigorate politics though, looks like the turnout will be impressive. I can understand why so many are disillusioned with politics in the UK and I can see why the scots might seize this as an opportunity for change. I can see why they dinnae wanna engage with the facts that the status quo might be a better deal.

Be interesting too to see the knock on effects if there is a yes vote - Wales would surely be immediately granted more power, and might we get some Lords reform? Maybe this is the revolution Russell Brand promised us more intelligent folk than him would deliver...

[Fultonius]

Fultonius I'm interested to know if you read the article I linked to earlier and if you have any information that can actually denounce it's supposed facts?

Not being a cunt, it's just that I can't find anything that isn't "pie in the sky" bollocks, and it's the crux of the matter.

All the positives you mention mean absolutely fuck all if the currency issue isn't sorted out because they won't happen.

I did yes:

Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, has been highly effective in convincing voters that Westminster is bluffing over the pound.

Well, they have been bluffing. England has too much to lose by rejecting a union - Scotland's share of the national debt, large increase in trade costs due to exchange rates and the associated risks. Even the UK Government's analysis was that it is the best option: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/191786/ScotlandAnalysis_acc-1.pdf

Fuck, straw man argument, sorry. I'll leave it in for the link anyway.

Right, onto the proper points:

Countries with their own currency shouldn’t logically ever run into fiscal difficulty. In a downturn, when spending rises and tax revenue falls, they can always print money to cover the shortfall.

Is this really the best approach in a downturn? If this is even true why have we just had a massive recession? Even if it is, Scotland and England's economies are so closely liked that if one has a downturn, then the other is going to feel the pain. If the shit really hits the fan in Scotland but, somehow, England is unaffected, we could always just do an Iceland style "Fuck You" to the banks and let them go to the wall. They seem to be recovering quite well right now, thanks very much: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20936685 Still, I don;t think it would come to that. It's not like Scotland and England are anywhere near as different as Germany and Spain.

Denied the flexibility to borrow and print at will, Scotland would have to fund its spending through higher taxes

I don't have a copy of the white paper to hand - but I don't think "borrowing at will" was part of the plan on how to achieve the wishlist. Going to read up more on that in the next few days.

That's all for now - I'm still wrecked from a month offshore straight into a non-stop wedding party weekend zzzzzz 

More tomorrow.    

[Jaspersharpe]

JB - True. The fallout could be very positive. Hopefully after a No win.

Fultonius, no time but I'll read that tomorrow!

[drdeath]

Yeah exactly. Which is why I've considered the whole thing to be a massive vanity project for Salmond from the start.

And I can certainly understand why you would see it that way...

But it's chat like that from the media, talking heads, random English punters etc. that is pushing folk up here in Scotland towards yes... at least this is what I hear from what I hear at my work place/personal contacts etc...

Petty and downright naive as that may sound, it's what I hear on the ground...

Nearly 50% of this country is ready to vote their way out of the Union and calling it 'Salmond's vanity project' , or similar, belittles and patronises the considered and ardently held belief of millions of Scots.

And, for what it's worth, that's from someone who is a no-leaning floating voter....

D

[Oldmanmatt]

More along the lines of Jasper's argument.

It's hard to see how it would work and it may be an extremely painful process, for the Scots, should the Yes vote occur

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29126192

But.

Part of me would love to see the Yes camp pull it off.

Because of this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29125408

And because it might be a great opportunity for a desperately needed reboot of the political system in the British Isles.

Painful, but ultimately needed.

[Falling Down]

I'll be sad to see the Union dissolve.. This great piece by Alex Massie sums up my thoughts http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/why-i-am-voting-no/

[tomtom]

I think its fascinating...

Until the 'tipping point' of the first poll giving a slight lead to yes - all was calm and quiet.. since then..

1. Alistair Darling shat his pants on 5live (you could hear the panic in his voice)
2. The pound lost two cents and London (ergo Conservative party and govt) suddenly stands up and takes note (what a wank world we live in when that has so much kudos)
3. UK Govt and no campaign add a timetable to their 'extra powers' if a no vote
4. Bizarrely this seems to make the voters trust the UK govt even less instead of re-assuring them!
5. Mobilise Team Westminster (fuck yeah!) of Dave, Nick and Ed - up to hoist Saltaires around the place to try and say 'we care honest'... funnily enough this seems to go down like a lead balloon...
6. Even the Queen gets dragged in... does anyone else think its ironic seeing pictures of the royals princing about in kilts?

7. Media frenzy on 1-6 above. Very little on the news in the last few weeks and all of a sudden we have 15 min of indyref news at 10 (I dont mind - just shows the shallowness of the media)...

If it happens (polls can change suddenly close to the time) then I dont think there will be financial armageddon that some seem to predict. I think it will be in the interest of both sides of the former union to maintain stability and have some sort of transition...

I loved the earlier post (sorry on Tapatalk so can't see) where someone said it was like watching Che at work - and all the politely spoken revolutionary talk! Good on them - a chance for a nation to make their own decisions and stand (or fall) for themselves... A huge two fingers up at the institution and our political system... one I'd like to give too...

[Fultonius]

It's true that it might not be beneficial for what's left of the UK - possibly one of the reasons why there's such a strong 'NO' campaign from down south.

I was just trying to dispel the widely held myth that there was something fundamental stopping a union. There is not - just recommendations that it might not be best of the rUK.

I'm not in the "well it's best for us, so do it and be damned with the others" so this part plays on my mind.

I need to get a fair bit of work done today so I'm going to be trying to avoid UKB for the best art of today but I might post some more links later.

[abarro81]

I'd have thought that if it weren't in the interests of the rest of the UK, that would be a fairly fundamental sticking point..?

[Sloper]

When it comes to the currency question there are three options:

1. The Euro
2. A floating Scottish £
3. A Scottish £ pegged to £Sterling (ECB)

1. Is utterly out of the question for a generation,
2. Transactional costs will be significant as will the infrascruture / implementation costs but there's the benefit of a floating currency and control over macro fiscal policy
3. Very few costs since Scottish banks already print their own notes but you could see a repeat of the Argentinian / Mexican disasters if Scottish bonds go off; also the question of a lack of fiscal policy control. I don't see Scotland being a latent Argentina but the risk cannot be ruled out.

I imagine the eventual outcome will be nominally 2 but in effect 3 as the consequences of anything else will be too painful / complicated.

In respect of the House of Lords I am always amazed at people's desire to see it abolished / replaced by a wholly elected chamber, unicameral government is generally not a good thing and an elected chamber both challenges the supremacy of the HoC and also effectively neuters the ability of the HoL to act as an amending chamber and take unpopular decisions.

[rich d]

Obviously I've not had enough coffee as I'm agreeing with Sloper! Reforming the Lords sounds good as an unelected body who have power of veto goes against the grain. However, look at the self serving idiots we get from a fully elected body in the commons, this has produced a "professional" class of politicians, with very little experience of life outside of Westminster and therefore being further and further removed from truly representing their constituents.   An elected Lords would just be a repeat of the commons, as I see it the role of the Lords is to check that legislation will work and become usable in real life. Any reforms in my mind should not be another elected house of politicians but allow experts from different fields to be representatives.
I work for a Scottish company and my Head Office is in Glasgow, a yes vote could be an absolute ball ache, really don't want to have to start paying an exchange rate on my wages.
In reality I don't think a yes or a no will make that much difference, business tends to do what it wants and will find ways around the loopholes.

[Fultonius]

I can't believe I'm about to do this....

Sloper, I have a question:

How do countries that don't have a second chamber deal with the issues that are normally dealt with by the House of Lords?  ( my dislike of the HoL is probably a bit outdated - it's not so much the function, just the way they are appointed (or in the past  born into  their positions)

Since we would probably have coalitions for ever more, will this not provide the requisite modulating influence on any poorly thought out / dangerous proposals?