[slackline]

was very lucky to be in Shetland over the weekend with work and even more lucky to go to Fair Isle, just when I thought I couldn't get any luckier, 2 nights of spectacular showings, green glowing skies, despite the bright moon 

Get any pics? post 'em up if you did

[SA Chris]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9035300/Best-way-to-see-the-Northern-Lights-even-in-south-of-England.html

Forecast to be overcast here

[LB1782]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9035300/Best-way-to-see-the-Northern-Lights-even-in-south-of-England.html

Forecast to be overcast here

It seems like that article is from January. Whilst there are a few active regions on the Sun at the moment there have not been any really big flares or Coronal Mass Ejections obviously heading for us.

The British Geological Survey tweet a daily forecast during the week.

[SA Chris]

Cock, looked at date on main page, not date of article, cheers.

And thanks for the link.

[LB1782]

Nothing to get excited about just yet, but...

There is a new active sunspot region rotating round to face Earth. Despite letting off some big solar flares in last few days, nothing much is headed towards us at the moment.
However, if the active region keeps flaring the way it is now, it may well fling a big enough chunk of the sun's atmosphere at us to cause aurorae at medium-high latitudes towards the end of the week.

[SA Chris]

Cheers. Will keep watch, I think a night on the Moray Coast might be good bet if anything happens?

[LB1782]

Between needing a coronal mass ejection to come in the right direction, a clear night down here and only really knowing how intense the magnetic storm is likely to be an hour or so before it hits us... i wouldn't hold your breath for much at 57.7 deg N.

It is worth keeping an eye on BGSspaceWeather and SpaceWeather.com to see if anything is heading our way.  If something does go off this is the best aurora forecasting model i know of.

[El Mocho]

Heading up to Hoy at the end of this week/start next so will have to keep a look out. Never seen it before...

[LB1782]

Quite a lot of activity last night, Coronal Mass Ejection was faster and stronger than predicted. Things have slackened off for the moment but we may get more in the UK (esp northern Scotland) tonight.
Look for the green band heading south in this forecast and the red blobs in this one.

[SA Chris]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/aberdeen-youth-hostel#?tab=fiveDay

Arsebiscotti

[LB1782]

The Sun is pretty active at the moment. There have been quite a few decent sized solar flares in the last few of days. Some have launched big chunks of the solar atmosphere (Coronal Mass Ejections) which are heading our way.

Magnetic storm forecasting is a bit of a dark art but there is a fair chance of some activity visible from Northern Scotland. Glancing strikes from several, partially merged, CMEs are expected around midnight (GMT) tonight. And as the Sun is still flaring we may see more activity on earth in a few days (it take an average CME about 3 days to arrive at Earth after leaving the Sun).

[SA Chris]

Arsing weather.

Thanks for the updates though, much appreciated.

[SA Chris]

http://earthsky.org/space/sun-unleashes-x-flare

Might even be clear here tomorrow.

[LB1782]

There has been some significant solar activity. Best chance for aurora spotting from Scotland for a while tomorrow night.

British Geological Survey's update here.

[SA Chris]

No indications given as to when tomorrow night? I guess after moon sets at about 1 am? Although it's first quarter, so won't be too bad anyway. Currently looking at forecasts to see how far north of Aberdeen I can go without hitting cloud cover. Guess it might be looking at satellite images tomorrow night, and going from there.

[LB1782]

Plenty of indications but all based on lots and lots of assumptions (guesses) about what the CME is ploughing into.

I've seen arrival times varying from 2am tomorrow  to 9am and any one prediction is normally +- 6hrs at least.

There should be some activity for a few hours after arrival. Then potentially more for many hours later if the magnetic field inside the beast is pointing the right way.

[SA Chris]

Well it was clear last night, got up early this morning and it was cloudy Went back to bed.

Hopefully better luck tonight.

[danm]

Mate happened to be on holiday near Reykjafik this week, according to his tour guide the aurora were about the best they'd ever seen them.

[LB1782]

Whilst there were some decent aurora sightings last night.

They were only from really quite far north.

I think Brian Cox, on stargazing live, may have encouraged people to go outside at midnight last night.
If he did, he was wrong. The CME did not arrive last night, almost nobody was predicting it would.
It still hasn't arrived yet and it is now later than most predictions.

Before heading out I'd check if the  the CME has arrived. Look for the a sudden step in the white wiggly line in the top panel of this this plot. Even better if the red line in the same panel drops below -10.

The actual geomagnetic effects are variable. If the most recent bars (the ones on the left) of this chart turn red, there is a pretty good chance of seeing something from Scotland. I'd reckon on Aberdeen having a chance if there were lots of orange bars close together and nearly at the red level.

edited 15:31 to remove excess whitespace

[SA Chris]

In the second link, isn't it the bars on the right? They have today's date.

Thanks for the info.

[LB1782]

Yep, sorry im  an idiot, the ones on the right tell you what's going on now

[SA Chris]

Cool. There's a step in the white but not much else

[LB1782]

The step is pretty small. Looks like a pretty weak impact. And the magnetic field is not pointing the right way (red line above 0). Think you'd be lucky to see much at Aberdonian latitudes. Still some chance if the systems underlying the data the bar chart play nice.

Seems Much much weaker than the pics of the thing leaving the Sun suggested.

[SA Chris]

I'm going to chance it anyway, just loading van to drive north and doss. Even if there's no aurora it will be a nice night for taking photos and maybe get in for a surf at first light

[SA Chris]

Not a sausage. Amazing night to be out though, walked to Slaine's Castle, but a bit too spooky so just walked on the coast. Amazing stars, and a great sunrise. Not much waves either.

Thanks agian for all the pointers.