[tomtom]

Yeah, Iceland did real well didn't they!

They are in a +GDP this year, so yeah, they did really well.  They did the right thing

Have a word with someone who lives there then... They'll give you a different take on things! It's a long long long way from being rosy over there..

While you're at it speak to anyone who sells anything to Europe.. Ask em how easy it is to ship things to say the USA or to Europe? Exporting things to Brussels is as easy as selling things to a company in Barnsley thanks to the free trade agreements.. and the EU..

Some things in the EU are monster screw ups, like the CAP, (ref NZ about how unsubsidised acgriculture can work-ish) daft fishing quota's... But I can't help but feel that we're not part of the party now... And that means we're going to miss out.  If the Eurozone countries had signed up, and non euro nations formed a second tier then ok, I could see that working. But everyone else went in with the plan.. Except us...

Sounds like it was all because of the City.. And wanting to keep it less regulated than the eu wanted. The city contributes alot to ukplc's ego, but not as much to the balance sheets as people think...

Well it may all turn out alright - and may be the best - or worst thing... I guess we'll find out in the fullness of time. It worries me that this has happened so rapidly, and that the anti EU brigade amongst the Tory faithful are very happy...

Just my 0.02 euro's worth...

[philo]

This is the problem, the whole system of debt financed consumption is the problem.  a recession is the CURE to the disease which is the bubble economy that we have built up with artificial low interest rates and a printing press.
The housing bubble was predictable and so is the bond bubble that is going to collapse next.  What we need is a sound currency, free market to set interest rates so we can actually reward savers and stop people spending money.  We have lived beyond our means for too long and the price we have to pay is the recession, it should be embraced.
Does anyone actually think increasing the bailout fund or allowing the IMF or ECB to buy up the debt (or the FED buying the US debt) is actually going to work?  Its one of the biggest ponzi schemes going, and it will never work. 

Try watching this then you might understand

[Bonjoy]

I was going to reply to Shark’s comment about globalisation not yet having run its course, but read this article instead which covers various things I was thinking better than I could put them:  http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-12-08/what-peak-oil-looks
 

Sorry Jon.  I like a good, rational peak oil debate as much as anyone, particularly as i work in the resources sector and have an insiders view.  But when the author is the proclaimed Grand Druid of the Ancient Order of Druids in North America (say that with a straight face) and has over twenty books gleefully heralding the demise of the world we live in, then my suspicions are raised as much as, if not higher than, when reading a lobbyists puff piece on "drill baby drill" in the Arctic.

Okay the guy has esoteric religious beliefs. Odd but to me no odder than someone being CofE or Muslim and whilst I am an atheist it does not mean I discount everything religious people say out of hand and really in this case it's of no relevance to the content of the piece I referenced. I could have linked to very similar articles by people without socially unacceptable religion, I just happen to like the guy's writing.

[seankenny]

That's what I think too. Staggering to re-visit India recently after a twenty year gap.
[/quote]

The change I've seen in ten years of regular visits to the sub-continent is pretty gobsmacking. At least in the major cities. Outside it's a different story.

[seankenny]

The observed rise in inequality in the last 20-30 years is a global trend, not just a British one. If you look at the data in different countries, and try to overlay the changes in government from left to right to left or whatever, there's not much correlation.

I think this is only half the story. Skim reading through the OECD thing you linked to (very interesting), it says inequality rose in the US, UK and Isreal in the early 80s, and then in most other OECD countries in the late 80s, then even in previously eglitarian societies like Germany and Sweden in the 2000s. To me that looks like the social democratic consensus of 1945 - late 70s first broke down here and in the States (or was broken, depending on how you look at it) and with it rising inequality.

Although there were changes in government in the UK and the US in the 80s and 90s, once the political or economic tides had turned from social democracy to free markets, the differences between the parties were much smaller than the differences between previous versions of those parties. That's most obvious with the Labour Party, but iirc the Tories went through some pretty harsh purges in the early 80s as Thatcher and co removed the wets.

The late 80s, when the communist countries collapsed, saw a further weakening of the social democratic ideal as it wasn't needed any more in Europe as a buttress against the communists (part of the reason for introducing it in the first place in a lot of countries).

So whilst I buy the globalisation/technology answer in part, to me it's a lot more about huge political and social changes that have hedged what governments are able to do, and indeed what politicians are able to think.

[shark]

Time to resurrect this thread methinks.

It's all going down...Greek elections..Merkel says nein..unsustainable Spanish bond yields...Merv opens the BOE coffers to UK banks...Swedes steal English game plan....

[mrjonathanr]

Time to resurrect this thread methinks.

It's all going down...Swedes steal English game plan....

It's done them slightly more good than our theft of their 'Free pet ideas paid for from the public purse Schools' model has done us so there's a ray of light - if you're a Swede...

[shark]

So eyes off Greece for as few days at least. FTSE unchanged. Attention now on Spain with the yield on a 10-year Treasury was up to a record 7.138% with the big audit by the Spanish govt due Thurs revealing how much money to prop up their banking system. 

[slackline]

Thought that this was quite pertinent....

[slackline]

I'd agree its simplistic but when those that govern the country are using simple and flawed logic along the lines that taxing rich individuals/companies too highly will prevent them from investing in the country leading to lower economic growth (i.e. "less jobs created") its useful to bear in mind that that too is overly simplistic and perhaps there is an equilibrium point that benefits everyone, in terms of job availability, which in turn gives individuals money to spend in the economy, rather than just those who already have lots of money.

So yes a skewed view, and no real answer within.  EDIT : And perhaps its purposefully simplistic to highlight & ridicule the flawed logic so often put forward by politicians.

Wasn't aware about the contention of it not being chosen be TED for promotion, sounds like a mountain out of a mole hill.  That said if it introduces the idea that the above logic purported by politicians might itself be flawed then that can't be a 'bad thing', as TED videos are very widely viewed.

[mrjonathanr]

I think we have been round in circles on this before. I am not at all convinced that many "politicians" have conviction views on economic issues, they just echo the prejudices of whatever portion of the electorate is necessary to get/ keep them elected.

That being in good measure that portion of the electorate which can afford to directly fund their political and post-political careers. The devil's in the under-writing.

edit 'benefactors' are not altruists.

[Johnny Brown]

In neo-classical economic theory, hyperinflation is rooted in a deterioration of the monetary base, that is the confidence that there is a store of value that the currency will be able to command later. In this model, the perceived risk of holding currency rises dramatically, and sellers demand increasingly high premiums to accept the currency. This in turn leads to a greater fear that the currency will collapse, causing even higher premiums. One example of this is during periods of warfare, civil war, or intense internal conflict of other kinds: governments need to do whatever is necessary to continue fighting, since the alternative is defeat. Expenses cannot be cut significantly since the main outlay is armaments. Further, a civil war may make it difficult to raise taxes or to collect existing taxes. While in peacetime the deficit is financed by selling bonds, during a war it is typically difficult and expensive to borrow, especially if the war is going poorly for the government in question. The banking authorities, whether central or not, "monetize" the deficit, printing money to pay for the government's efforts to survive.

Obvious counter to this is we'll all be doing it, so harder to find a stable 'harder' alternative. Enter Bitcoin, stage right?

[Johnny Brown]

I thought this was a thought-provoking piece. Overall logic seems sound though so what reliant on an overarching narrative you might not go for. I've had similar thoughts about with regard to the reality of restarting our business. Also could have some relevance to the long term decline in interest rates?

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/31/economies-wont-be-able-to-recover-after-shutdowns/

Posting here as the other threads are mostly converging on politician bashing.

[seankenny]

I thought this was a thought-provoking piece. Overall logic seems sound though so what reliant on an overarching narrative you might not go for. I've had similar thoughts about with regard to the reality of restarting our business. Also could have some relevance to the long term decline in interest rates?

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/31/economies-wont-be-able-to-recover-after-shutdowns/

Posting here as the other threads are mostly converging on politician bashing.

So full of bobbins I couldn’t make it through. A diagram of the economy with children’s toys, one graph imposed upon another in an attempt to show some kind of causal relationship, vague hand waving about “collapse”, a word which seems to mean whatever the reader chooses it to mean.

As for statements like: “ The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem.”

Wow, no one has ever considered that there are buyers and sellers before, nor how prices may affect markets.

Excuse sarcasm, but it’s poor stuff.

[Duma]

I probably come from a pretty different perspective than Sean, but I also thought it was so full of holes as to quickly become nonsense.

[Johnny Brown]

Fair dos, I did anticipate some of the that hence why it's here! It did make me think I may have overestimated the potential speed of the economic recovery though.

Other thought was I've made about one financial transaction a week recently. Might people discover there is more to life than shopping?

[tomtom]

Theres a FB meme going around along the lines of

Weekly budget

Going out £0
Petrol £0
Lunches £0
etc.. etc..

Weekly food shop £520

[SA Chris]

Other thought was I've made about one financial transaction a week recently. Might people discover there is more to life than shopping?

I'd like to think some good will come of it; less rampant  / fashion consumerism, less "weekend breaks" flying to distant European capitals spent eating and drinking the same as what you would in a UK capital a train ride away, an appreciation of what's on your doorstep, more people getting into running walking and cycling, a shift to allowing more people to work from home and not have to commute daily, people appreciating the pleasure of just going round to a friend's house for a chat and a drink, etc etc.

[teestub]

an appreciation of what's on your doorstep,

It’s made me appreciate my usual freedoms to drive where I want all the more so, and has also made me think that I potentially need to relocate my doorstep!

[Teaboy]

Other thought was I've made about one financial transaction a week recently. Might people discover there is more to life than shopping?

I doubt it, it just means for a while our homes will be furnished with things from the middle isle in Aldi and we'll all be rocking clothes from George at Asda

[cowboyhat]

Starting reading this thread without looking at the date, read bonjoys first post, couple of responses
 Jaspersharpe? Haven’t seen him for a while, he must be bored at home.

Wait a minute!

It all fits. And here we are

[lagerstarfish]

Starting reading this thread without looking at the date, read bonjoys first post, couple of responses
 Jaspersharpe? Haven’t seen him for a while, he must be bored at home.

Wait a minute!

It all fits. And here we are

We've been having a regular Friday night zoom quiz with him.
He's still a cunt.

[Falling Down]

Oil price has hit zero and I think even went negative in the last couple of hours.

[andy popp]

Yup.

[Duma]

Yeah work was odd today