[andy moles]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/articles/ckvg09p909eo

Bets on Pogacar going for the Grand Tour treble? He says not, but I wonder if the draw will be too much? Vingegaard could be in much more competitive shape in 2 months.

He did look 'extremely fatigued' in Nice right enough.

I can't be arsed with Olympic sports where the best athletes don't even compete. Guess that's the simple effect of professionalism and the fact there's no money in it.

[Fultonius]

Peak human efficiency and performance hasn't really changed much in 60 years. Times have.

I just can't get excited by it now.

This sounds like utter nonsense. Strange statement to throw out with no facts to support it.

'I just can't get excited by it now.'
So on that point, when were you excited by cycling or the Tour? In the 90s, epo and Festina?

I wasn't going to post on this, and to be honest, I'm going to keep it short as I don't massively want to engage in a debate that can only be settled by time,

1. I'm being a cynic. Guilty as charged.
2. I used to love watching all sports as a kid, and yes, the Festina / Indurain late 90s was exactly when I was excited by it, then had all my childhood naïve view on the world tainted.

The reference to "no improvement in 60 years" was, on reflection, perhaps not massively valid to grand tour road cycling, as the recovery, nutrition and other multi-day performance attributes probably have come on a fair bit. However, I watched what seemed at the time a fairly through documentary about human performance and how most of the improvements in sprinting since the 60s were actually easily accounted for by the change in surface, tech etc. Basically they were saying that Bolt wasn't, in corrected terms, any faster than any of the predecessors.

I don't have the time to do research to back this up just now, so let's just say if you want to find out more feel free to do your own.

Back to current performance. I guess by cynic-dopometer just pings whenever someone posts "incredible" (in the literal sense) performances. However, I've delved deeply into it and therefore I'm just going step back and allow it to drift along as innocent until proven guilty. I know it somewhat pisses on everyone's chips posting negativity on here and I wasn't going to, but someone else's post prompted me to and I wish I hadn't.

[Johnny Brown]

My guess would be that one of the biggest changes in the last 60 years is the size of the talent pool. There are 2.5x as many people in the world, and the percentage of them who might be able to pursue sport professionally must have increased by a huge factor, maybe 10, 100x, 1000x, who knows but massive surely? Assuming a vaguely normal distribution, that sort of increase not only significantly widens the tails (i.e. previously unseen talent levels) plus gives lots more choice at previous 'ultimate' talent levels.

[webbo]

I was just reading something on another forum about swimming that up to the age of 12 girls perform better than boys overall. This is not because they are physically better it is because the majority of the best boys are playing football where as currently there is no such distraction for the girls.
I’d like to think that in cycling they are sticking within the current rules but I do think they push what is allowed to the limit and some current nutritional things will get banned at some point.
One of things beside the bigger talent pool is what they are discovering in nutrition I.e. how much carbohydrate you absorb and how this has to be trained like everything else. Altitude training used to be something they did for the odd week now they do it for a month or so.
But as Fultonuis says time will tell.

[teestub]

My guess would be that one of the biggest changes in the last 60 years is the size of the talent pool. There are 2.5x as many people in the world, and the percentage of them who might be able to pursue sport professionally must have increased by a huge factor, maybe 10, 100x, 1000x, who knows but massive surely? Assuming a vaguely normal distribution, that sort of increase not only significantly widens the tails (i.e. previously unseen talent levels) plus gives lots more choice at previous 'ultimate' talent levels.

Totally, and the lengths countries now go to in identifying these talents and getting them into the right sport, like Roglic testing and having massive VO2 max (although I think he might have already quit ski jumping at that point) I know Team GB do a lot of this talent spotting and assessment too. 

[IanP]

He did look 'extremely fatigued' in Nice right enough.

I can't be arsed with Olympic sports where the best athletes don't even compete. Guess that's the simple effect of professionalism and the fact there's no money in it.

Think it's a bit more complicated than that, one day races vary an enormous amount and while Pogacar is the best cyclist in the world he's not necessarily the best on that course, particularly after most of his concentration has been on the grand tours and much hillier one day classics.  MVDP, Van Aert and Evanepoel among others will be competing so it's a very strong field - MVDP in particular has made it clear he is targeting the Olympics and he's pretty inarguably the best in world on that sort of course at the moment (witness his World Champs win last year in Glasgow). 

For further complication Pogacar is targeting the Worlds in Zurich in September on a course that really suits him - even a rider as good as him is likely to only one get a really good course in the worlds every 3 years or so.

[sxrxg]

I think the Pogi not going to the Olympics has as much (if not everything) to do with the fact that his girlfriend, Urska Zigart, was not selected for the Slovenian team. And if anyone thinks this is petty and she isn't the best she is the current reigning national road race (won by 10 mintues) and time trail (won by 4 minutes) champion of Slovenia. Also it is amazing that the riders selected by the national coach also both happen to ride for UAE Team ADQ which is the team that the coach also works for. Basically politics have got in the way of one of the best current riders being at the Olympics and nothing to do with fatigue. At least he can now focus on the World Champs as it would be great for him to be wearing the rainbow rings for next year and then on his sleeves for the rest of his career.

[andy moles]

He did look 'extremely fatigued' in Nice right enough.

I can't be arsed with Olympic sports where the best athletes don't even compete. Guess that's the simple effect of professionalism and the fact there's no money in it.

Think it's a bit more complicated than that, one day races vary an enormous amount and while Pogacar is the best cyclist in the world he's not necessarily the best on that course, particularly after most of his concentration has been on the grand tours and much hillier one day classics.  MVDP, Van Aert and Evanepoel among others will be competing so it's a very strong field - MVDP in particular has made it clear he is targeting the Olympics and he's pretty inarguably the best in world on that sort of course at the moment (witness his World Champs win last year in Glasgow). 

For further complication Pogacar is targeting the Worlds in Zurich in September on a course that really suits him - even a rider as good as him is likely to only one get a really good course in the worlds every 3 years or so.

I wasn't suggesting he was the favourite but the point stands - in some sports Olympic gold is the highest achievement but in others it's not, and some or all of the best athletes don't even compete, which I think diminishes it.

[IanP]

I wasn't suggesting he was the favourite but the point stands - in some sports Olympic gold is the highest achievement but in others it's not, and some or all of the best athletes don't even compete, which I think diminishes it.

I agree to an extent, it's difficult to argue that the Olympics is the pinnacle of cycling, a Tour de France is valued above the Olympics Gold and probably a monument win.  But the point still holds around 'the best athletes', the varied nature of the the sport means there are many different best cyclists.  Based on the current UCI rankings (not necessarily to be taken too seriously!) Adam Yates at 13th is the best British cyclist but he isn't in the GB team - don't know if he was available but given the course it would make no sense for him to be the team because we have other riders who are better suited to the Olympic course.

[Paul B]

Totally, and the lengths countries now go to in identifying these talents and getting them into the right sport, like Roglic testing and having massive VO2 max (although I think he might have already quit ski jumping at that point) I know Team GB do a lot of this talent spotting and assessment too.

This was what I was trying to say earlier in that Pogi and Jonas were identified as having an almost unrivalled ability to process carbohydrate.

Think it's a bit more complicated than that, one day races vary an enormous amount and while Pogacar is the best cyclist in the world he's not necessarily the best on that course, particularly after most of his concentration has been on the grand tours and much hillier one day classics.  MVDP, Van Aert and Evanepoel among others will be competing so it's a very strong field - MVDP in particular has made it clear he is targeting the Olympics and he's pretty inarguably the best in world on that sort of course at the moment (witness his World Champs win last year in Glasgow).

MVDP didn't look on good form* during the Tour this year though. Do you think he'll come good for the Olympics?

I think the Pogi not going to the Olympics has as much (if not everything) to do with the fact that his girlfriend, Urska Zigart, was not selected for the Slovenian team.

I'm not sure I find this very convincing unless there's some statement from Pogi saying as much?

*for him!

[sxrxg]

There was a swiftly withdrawn Facebook story when the news first came out that he was angry and speechless. Since then his girlfriend has basically stated that it his her fight and she doesn't want Tadej to get involved on her behalf. Whilst it might not have been the full reason for pulling out I am sure that it influenced his thinking.

[Duma]

I'm not sure I find this very convincing unless there's some statement from Pogi saying as much?

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jul/24/tadej-pogacar-says-decision-not-to-select-girlfriend-helped-sway-olympic-no-show

[IanP]

MVDP didn't look on good form* during the Tour this year though. Do you think he'll come good for the Olympics?

Don't claim any great inside knowledge but MVDP does seem to have an incredible record of hitting his targets (2020 Olympic MTB notwithstanding!) - he wasn't great at last year's TDF (* as you say) but totally delivered at the Glasgow world champs a few weeks later.

[Paul B]

I'm not sure I find this very convincing unless there's some statement from Pogi saying as much?

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jul/24/tadej-pogacar-says-decision-not-to-select-girlfriend-helped-sway-olympic-no-show

“It’s not the main reason, but for sure it didn’t help..."