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Tour de France predictions (Read 158310 times)

webbo

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#550 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 08:40:44 am
Earlier in the year there was a bit of spat when Tom Boonen stated that the Colnago’s that Pog rides were really crap. So given that Jumbo ride Cervelos which have always been at the forefront of aerodynamics that’s going to be yet more time gained. Plus Pog did a bike change to get rid of his lardy TT bike which will have cost him at least 10 seconds.
Where as Jumbo had worked on getting their TT bike even lighter so JV didn’t need to change bikes.

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#551 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 09:11:33 am
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage .

Missed that but interesting, there was another recent interview in which Pidcock said he 'didn't understand' how in the Tour they can keep going full gas every single day. I also picked up, in a little feature ITV did about Egan Bernal, a comment from his coach about how the winning standard is now notably higher than when Bernal won in 2019 (and that EB would have to be better than he was then to compete).

If you suppose that Vingegaard is doping, so are Jumbo Visma. If Jumbo Visma are on it, so must UAE be. Then you look at the fact that not much separates the Yates brothers, riding for different teams. Rodriguez is Ineos, same as Pidcock. Where does it stop? (Perhaps I'm making a false assumption here that it would be a team-sanctioned rather than individual thing). Thibaut Pinot has probably been the rider most outspoken about 'two speeds in the peloton' from that 2021 L'Équipe interview, and he sits a little way outside the top 10. I guess it isn't necessarily a case of pure clean vs doping, but potentially degrees of usage? Degrees of compromise/risk? All very muddy.

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#552 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 09:44:11 am
What no one seems to have mentioned is JV’s bike handling. He was way superior on the descents probably putting 30 seconds in to TP on these alone never mind what he gained on the rest of the corners.

Technique and levels of fatigue are linked.  Maybe TP was more tired and making mistakes. JV energy levels seem surprisingly high ;)

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#553 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 09:52:50 am
What no one seems to have mentioned is JV’s bike handling. He was way superior on the descents probably putting 30 seconds in to TP on these alone never mind what he gained on the rest of the corners.

Technique and levels of fatigue are linked.  Maybe TP was more tired and making mistakes. JV energy levels seem surprisingly high ;)

30 seconds is also likely to be a big exaggeration. All of the descent in that TT was before the second checkpoint, when the gap between them was 31 seconds. I doubt 30 of those 31 seconds were won on descent technique!

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#554 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 10:13:35 am
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage .

Missed that but interesting, there was another recent interview in which Pidcock said he 'didn't understand' how in the Tour they can keep going full gas every single day. I also picked up, in a little feature ITV did about Egan Bernal, a comment from his coach about how the winning standard is now notably higher than when Bernal won in 2019 (and that EB would have to be better than he was then to compete).

If you suppose that Vingegaard is doping, so are Jumbo Visma. If Jumbo Visma are on it, so must UAE be. Then you look at the fact that not much separates the Yates brothers, riding for different teams. Rodriguez is Ineos, same as Pidcock. Where does it stop? (Perhaps I'm making a false assumption here that it would be a team-sanctioned rather than individual thing). Thibaut Pinot has probably been the rider most outspoken about 'two speeds in the peloton' from that 2021 L'Équipe interview, and he sits a little way outside the top 10. I guess it isn't necessarily a case of pure clean vs doping, but potentially degrees of usage? Degrees of compromise/risk? All very muddy.

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

The pure clean Vs doping thing is also a point with Jumbo openly admitting to using ketones. Whilst not banned by WADA these are not allowed by the movement for credible cycling (MPCC) however not all teams or riders are signed up to this. This brings into question if other designer drugs have been developed that whilst not yet explicitly banned by WADA would be at best morally questionable for use.

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#555 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 10:41:04 am

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

Either hypothesis, the rest or taking PEDs, might explain a jump in performance immediately after Covid, but surely neither has any relevance now? Though I suppose that lay-off in testing might have provided freedom to experiment 'safely' with a simulated testing programme and what you could get away with?

Another musing on relative performance. There have been a few massive one-day climbing performances in this race, from riders like Kwiatkowski and Poels (neither of whom, from what I can gather, in the context of their careers, would be prime suspects for doping). But their times on the final climbs were impressively fast, and the big GC riders weren't that much faster. I don't know what this means - you could of course take the most cynical interpretation, but you could also see it as meaning that what significantly separates the big beasts from the rest is being able to do it day after day (however that can be explained). Though JV's TT is still an outlier.

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#556 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 10:45:48 am
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage .

Missed that but interesting, there was another recent interview in which Pidcock said he 'didn't understand' how in the Tour they can keep going full gas every single day. I also picked up, in a little feature ITV did about Egan Bernal, a comment from his coach about how the winning standard is now notably higher than when Bernal won in 2019 (and that EB would have to be better than he was then to compete).

If you suppose that Vingegaard is doping, so are Jumbo Visma. If Jumbo Visma are on it, so must UAE be. Then you look at the fact that not much separates the Yates brothers, riding for different teams. Rodriguez is Ineos, same as Pidcock. Where does it stop? (Perhaps I'm making a false assumption here that it would be a team-sanctioned rather than individual thing). Thibaut Pinot has probably been the rider most outspoken about 'two speeds in the peloton' from that 2021 L'Équipe interview, and he sits a little way outside the top 10. I guess it isn't necessarily a case of pure clean vs doping, but potentially degrees of usage? Degrees of compromise/risk? All very muddy.

Of course it is possible they're all doping.

Tbh I feel like some people are rather naive on this. We know people have been tested hundreds, even thousands of times, and never failed, despite being on drugs the whole time. We know that teams and nations and so on have conspired to allow doping and test evasion. We know that doping works extremely well.

I am not saying these people are on drugs. I have no evidence. But I have no evidence the entire Chinese Weightlifting Team are on drugs and they absolutely are. This is far less sure. If they all got popped though my reaction would be less "shocking that they're on drugs!" And more "I'm amazed they got caught"

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#557 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 10:54:52 am
https://twitter.com/gmoreira_esp/status/1681576978871140352?t=PsfwufRLBIJUqA99W2ZbHg&s=08
This gives a good comparison between Pogačar and Vingegaard in the time trial. UAE have been doing pretty well generally in time trials this year, I would imagine they have a pretty good TT bike but that is quite a bit heavier than their road bike.

With regards the two speeds in the peloton this could also be influenced by team budget. Some teams can't afford to put riders up in hotels at altitude for large chunks of time prior to big races. Christophe Laporte has seemed to improve considerably since joining Jumbo from Cofidis. Apparently he never did an altitude camp whilst at Cofidis. Pinot lives in the area where he grew up and gets picked up by his mum when he gets a puncture on his training rides whereas others will be spending months in a hotel atop Mount Teide in Terife or in Kolobnev's hypobaric hotel in Spain. Spending time in wind tunnels honing TT set ups is also costly and not something that all teams will be able to afford. Alternatively UAE, Jumbo, Ineos and Quickstep are not part of the MPCC whereas FDJ are.

Geraint Thomas said that his numbers were better last year when he came third than they were in 2018 when he won. This could be due to improvements in technology and knowledge about training and nutrition. It sounds like they are now consuming a lot more carbohydrates during races than they were a few years ago.

Pidcock hasn't been a GC contender in a grand tour before, who knows whether he's cut out for it.

Vingegaard went up Col de la Loze almost a minute faster than Miguel Ángel López did in 2020 and that includes him having to stop behind a car for a bit. López was dropped by his team at the end of last year due to his connection with a doctor under investigation for drug trafficking.

I have no idea if doping is going on in cycling but I think that if Pogačar had posted a similar time to Vingegaard in the TT and not blown up on Wednesday then there would be fewer questions and accusations. The race being pretty much over nearly a week out is a bit disappointing. There are lots of legitimate reasons why Vingegaard might be better than the rest of the field but it's hard to know if they are enough to explain his performance. Sky had lots of great stories about all their marginal gains but the steroids they gave Wiggins by gaming the TUE system probably made more of a difference.

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#558 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 11:55:53 am

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

Either hypothesis, the rest or taking PEDs, might explain a jump in performance immediately after Covid, but surely neither has any relevance now? Though I suppose that lay-off in testing might have provided freedom to experiment 'safely' with a simulated testing programme and what you could get away with?

Another musing on relative performance. There have been a few massive one-day climbing performances in this race, from riders like Kwiatkowski and Poels (neither of whom, from what I can gather, in the context of their careers, would be prime suspects for doping). But their times on the final climbs were impressively fast, and the big GC riders weren't that much faster. I don't know what this means - you could of course take the most cynical interpretation, but you could also see it as meaning that what significantly separates the big beasts from the rest is being able to do it day after day (however that can be explained). Though JV's TT is still an outlier.

I’m not sure I’m sold on your interpretation of MK and WPs results. Kwiatkowski has always, always been a strong rider as has Poels been a very, very strong climber just hidden behind working for others. I don’t think there is anything suspect about their results when they’ve spent the last two weeks soft pedalling in the peloton. It serves as a fairly useless comparison. Take Asgreen yesterday. He could put in that outrageous, once in a tour effort because, AFAIK he’s been fairly anonymous all Tour.

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#559 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 12:05:57 pm

Something happened during COVID, if you look at the pre COVID and post COVID times and power outputs. Some that are potentially naive have put it down to the athletes being able to have the first proper rest in their career... Others have pointed out that doping control was effectively suspended for 6 months and the riders could have, if they wanted to, taken any performance enhancing drugs they wanted provided they could get back to the levels on the passport by the time the regime resumed testing.

Either hypothesis, the rest or taking PEDs, might explain a jump in performance immediately after Covid, but surely neither has any relevance now? Though I suppose that lay-off in testing might have provided freedom to experiment 'safely' with a simulated testing programme and what you could get away with?

Another musing on relative performance. There have been a few massive one-day climbing performances in this race, from riders like Kwiatkowski and Poels (neither of whom, from what I can gather, in the context of their careers, would be prime suspects for doping). But their times on the final climbs were impressively fast, and the big GC riders weren't that much faster. I don't know what this means - you could of course take the most cynical interpretation, but you could also see it as meaning that what significantly separates the big beasts from the rest is being able to do it day after day (however that can be explained). Though JV's TT is still an outlier.

I’m not sure I’m sold on your interpretation of MK and WPs results. Kwiatkowski has always, always been a strong rider as has Poels been a very, very strong climber just hidden behind working for others. I don’t think there is anything suspect about their results when they’ve spent the last two weeks soft pedalling in the peloton. It serves as a fairly useless comparison. Take Asgreen yesterday. He could put in that outrageous, once in a tour effort because, AFAIK he’s been fairly anonymous all Tour.

I didn't sell an interpretation. I said it could mean a number of things. I should have made it clearer that the reason I flagged it as interesting is only that their times on those climbs were impressively fast compared to other years on the same climbs, not because peloton riders were able to pull off one big day (which is normal in grand tours).

In contrast to what you think my interpretation was, that could equally mean that standards really are higher now.

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#560 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 12:31:35 pm
Maybe all the top ten riders of the classics and the grand tours should be made to go on Oprahs show. Then we might get to know what’s going on ;)

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#561 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 02:06:35 pm
With regards the two speeds in the peloton this could...... Alternatively UAE, Jumbo, Ineos and Quickstep are not part of the MPCC whereas FDJ are.

Pidcock hasn't been a GC contender in a grand tour before, who knows whether he's cut out for it.

Sky had lots of great stories about all their marginal gains but the steroids they gave Wiggins by gaming the TUE system probably made more of a difference.

Yes, this is the MPCC list, and you can see that most of the French teams plus Bora Hansgroer are on there. I think this explains why the French have had so little success in the big races recently ( but a great ride by the guy from AG2R on Wednesday - respect ! )
https://www.mpcc.fr/en/our-members/

Pidcock was 7th last year.

The point about Sky is part of the reason it's so odd to see Jumbo Visma so far ahead. Sky came into the scene and took a Formula 1 approach to the details, looking at everything, throwing out the old mid-20th-century dogmas, doing experiments on everything. There was a lot of low-hanging fruit back then. I don't believe their success was down to drugs, the transgressions were mostly minor and probably being doen by all teams at the time. The worst one was Wiggins taking Kenacort, that was very much NOT OK .
So my point is, in the post-Sky era, how to Jumbo Visma explain their sudden surge in performance ?

A lot of what I've read about advances recently is to do with extra carbohydrate per hour ( as Andy mentioned ) plus ketones ; but these are mainly improving endurance and recovery.
The worrying bit about what we've seen in the last week is that it's showing greater climbing speeds and hence W/kg. It looks just like a blood-boosting issue, like EPO was in the early 90's.

Perhaps it's Roxadustat ?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/cycling-banned-blood-booster-a-challenge-for-anti-doping-authorities-expert/ar-AA1e8qmo?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=04f9e3afd7f24096972d7f376fac3b3e&ei=43




andy moles

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#562 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 02:15:32 pm
Maybe all the top ten riders of the classics and the grand tours should be made to go on Oprahs show. Then we might get to know what’s going on ;)

Reading around some of this stuff the other day, I stumbled on Lance Armstrong's current cycling podcast. In this he spends an segment in the middle flogging his sponsors, which are all performance boosting supplements. Irony bypass  :lol:

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#563 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 03:38:28 pm
Yes, this is the MPCC list, and you can see that most of the French teams plus Bora Hansgroer are on there. I think this explains why the French have had so little success in the big races recently ( but a great ride by the guy from AG2R on Wednesday - respect ! )
https://www.mpcc.fr/en/our-members/

Pidcock was 7th last year.

The point about Sky is part of the reason it's so odd to see Jumbo Visma so far ahead. Sky came into the scene and took a Formula 1 approach to the details, looking at everything, throwing out the old mid-20th-century dogmas, doing experiments on everything. There was a lot of low-hanging fruit back then. I don't believe their success was down to drugs, the transgressions were mostly minor and probably being doen by all teams at the time. The worst one was Wiggins taking Kenacort, that was very much NOT OK .
So my point is, in the post-Sky era, how to Jumbo Visma explain their sudden surge in performance ?

A lot of what I've read about advances recently is to do with extra carbohydrate per hour ( as Andy mentioned ) plus ketones ; but these are mainly improving endurance and recovery.
The worrying bit about what we've seen in the last week is that it's showing greater climbing speeds and hence W/kg. It looks just like a blood-boosting issue, like EPO was in the early 90's.

Perhaps it's Roxadustat ?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/cycling-banned-blood-booster-a-challenge-for-anti-doping-authorities-expert/ar-AA1e8qmo?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=04f9e3afd7f24096972d7f376fac3b3e&ei=43

Some of the most recent doping events in cycling feature MPCC teams; Preidler rode for FDJ when he was blood doping, Arkea's hotel was raided at the tour, Quintana was suspended from the tour for Tremadol the following year, Burgos-BH were suspended from racing due to so many doping incidents.

Pidcock didn't come 7th last year; he finished  behind the likes of Madouas. He was up there to start with but then lost a lot of time in the mountains, a bit like this year. He was riding in support of others and was fetching bottles.

Sky's biggest crime was buying up all the biggest talent and making races boring. Who knows how much benefit all the F1 approach had but if I was secretly giving riders testosterone and getting dodgy TUEs to dish out steroids I'd come up with some nice story about rounder wheels to explain the improvement.



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#564 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 21, 2023, 04:06:50 pm

Pidcock didn't come 7th last year; he finished  behind the likes of Madouas. He was up there to start with but then lost a lot of time in the mountains, a bit like this year. He was riding in support of others and was fetching bottles.

Yes you're right, he was 16th, that's odd. I looked him up a couple of days ago and found 7th somewhere. D'Oh !

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#565 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 24, 2023, 07:14:05 pm
And so it came to pass.

I thought this was a particularly petty, unpleasant little article: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jul/23/cycling-tour-de-france-winner-jonas-vingegaard-fails-to-win-over-public

In the meantime, looking forward to being at Rådhuspladsen for the celebrations on Wednesday afternoon.

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#566 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 24, 2023, 08:45:22 pm
That does come across as more bitter than it needs to be in reporting what is undoubtedly true about the some of the general feeling in France.

I'm not sure how I feel about there being an onus on sportspeople to be likeable. On the one hand it's really not their job, but given that their job is ultimately supported by the public's interest, in a way it sort of is. As a neutral, I would have to agree that Pogačar is way more fun and charismatic than Vingegaard, but what of it? It's hardly fair to demand that a guy change his personality. Maybe just that he rides less improbably fast time trials...

I'm not surprised if cracking has made Pog more popular in France. They don't love Pinot because he was the best.

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#567 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 24, 2023, 08:48:02 pm
And so it came to pass.

I thought this was a particularly petty, unpleasant little article: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jul/23/cycling-tour-de-france-winner-jonas-vingegaard-fails-to-win-over-public

In the meantime, looking forward to being at Rådhuspladsen for the celebrations on Wednesday afternoon.
An article that says Marc Madiot and peanut had any hope of doing anything in tour suggest the author is clearly deluded. Pinot clearly has had more success raising goats than winning grand tours and Madiot refusal to embrace modern training techniques is why his team has not had much success in any of the GT’s. But then again it’s a French team and it’s all about the romance :hug:

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#568 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 26, 2023, 02:35:39 pm
Jeez, that article is total garbage. Should we be surprised that a reserved Dane is less popular than a flamboyant frenchman in France? I love Pinot, he is amazing to watch and one of my favorite riders of the last decade. I was stood on Crans Montana on stage 13 of the Giro this year where he went berserk and attacked about a dozen times, then got angry with the guys surrounding him for not working. I love him for that, but it's not smart riding... He has huge amounts of talent and popular appeal, but I feel like he (and Madoit) get a bit too carried away with the romance of the Hinault "attack, attack, and attack again" school of French riding. It doesn't matter how much talent you have, you cannot win a grand tour in modern cycling like Hinault used to. The article appears to be subtly criticizing J{umbo/onas} V{isma/ingegaard} for the very things which win grand tours (efficiency, teamwork, preparation, consistency) and favoring things which simply do not (warmth, charm, humanity). Is there no charm or warmth or humanity in a close knit team of people working superbly together to achieve a shared goal?

Anyway, rant over. As you were!

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#569 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 26, 2023, 02:56:30 pm
Waiting expectantly for the balcony appearance at Rådhuspladsen this afternoon.


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#570 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 26, 2023, 11:13:25 pm
And the French wonder why they havent had a Tour winner for nearly 40 years... It's great loving the beautiful loser but I'm not sure they were doing that when Fignon and Hinault were winning in the 70s and 80s.

It's a different sport now compared with then and like others have said training methods have moved on. It's impossible to win the Tour fuelled by passion alone, especially in the post Sky world. Everyone is on that bandwagon because it works.

I was having an interesting conversation with a friend about how Marc Madiot is on the one hand a bit of a tool but also that he has really held Pinot back and we were wondering how he would of got on at a more modern team. He could have been far more consistent and had a real tilt at one of the GTs. Then again he might of hated the discipline. Who knows.

It a shame about the French and Jonas. He is a bit of a cold fish, but some people are. Having followed the sport for so long its hard to be 100% sure that he is clean. I have really enjoyed the duel this year and barring an off day in the mountains and the amazing TT it could have been one of the closest ever. Would have been great for it to go down to the last day in the mountains as it was a really good stage for it. I also know that if it had been a French guy winning in this style there would be zero talk of doping as it was mainly coming from L'equipe.

I guess that's my rant to add to the pile.

For all it's flaws I'm not sure I'll ever tire of pro bike racing. I even still look back on the Pantani win fondly!!!   

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#571 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 27, 2023, 04:10:17 pm
Has everyone moved over to watching the Femmes?
https://www.letourfemmes.fr/en

erm, sam

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#572 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 28, 2023, 09:51:28 am
following but not watching. how do you watch it?

Paul B

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#573 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 28, 2023, 11:09:01 am
Through GCN+ although the live coverage isn't 100%.

Zwift were still giving out free GCN passes for the TdFF until very recently so have a search if you don't already have a subscription.

I think the uber short highlights (5 mins) go on GCN Racing (YouTube).

Edit:
https://lifepluswahoo.com/embraceeverymoment

I managed to get a pass last year even after the first stage so there might still be some left.

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#574 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 29, 2023, 12:59:31 pm
https://www.youtube.com/@LanterneRougeCycling

I watch these summary videos which i find very good.

The cycling podcast also has daily episodes during the femme tour.

 

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