UKBouldering.com

Tour de France predictions (Read 158555 times)

webbo

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 5034
  • Karma: +141/-13
#525 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 09:31:19 am
So in a sport where riders move teams on a regular basis they are not taking with them their knowledge of these new drugs.
Chris Froome was accused of doping all the time he was with Sky yet he appears not to have passed on his knowledge to his new team Israel.

Wellsy

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1441
  • Karma: +103/-10
#526 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 09:34:09 am
The riders may not know exactly what they are taking, they certainly wouldn't know how to synthesise it, or how it's unique from a chemical perspective. That is if they are using designer drugs and not systemic test failure avoidance techniques.

cofe

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: +187/-5
#527 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 10:03:57 am
I really hope it's all legit as I love watching bike racing (and have done since I was a kid), but it shows the cloud of years gone by still hangs over cycling. Jumbo had one hell of a rest day and it's the two consecutive mega days that followed that ask the question, sadly. I think Jonas is probably the leading climber of his generation, which is usually what wins grand tours, while Pog is probably the best all-round rider, which isn't necessarily enough. Pog is the only one who can compete with Jonas, and I'm not sure Remco can either assuming he steps up to the TDF next year. Also worth remembering Pog came into the race with no racing legs after his injury. Might be more of a factor than we think.

As an aside, every July I like to remind myself I've won the TDF as many times as Lance.

andy moles

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 630
  • Karma: +54/-1
#528 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 10:16:27 am
You would think, given the history of cycling and the levels of suspicion, that any cheating would need to be so clandestine, to avoid the risk whistle-blowing, that even the riders themselves might not know exactly what is going on?

I'm speculating wildly here, but they must ingest all kinds of drinks and supplements...

I would very much like for it to be clean, as it's been an excellent spectacle this year, but that TT was just a bit too abnormally impressive.

sheavi

Offline
  • **
  • menacing presence
  • Posts: 238
  • Karma: +16/-2
#529 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 10:30:04 am


I would very much like for it to be clean, as it's been an excellent spectacle this year, but that TT was just a bit too abnormally impressive.
[/quote]

Not a bit too abnormally impressive; it's totally abnormal.  Unfortunately I think we all know what's happening.

andy moles

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 630
  • Karma: +54/-1
#530 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 10:54:26 am
Say it ain't so, Jonas.

petejh

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 5791
  • Karma: +624/-36
#531 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 11:12:21 am
Being that they've just spent 3-4 days static location in very closely proximity to a 4800m high piece of land, might it have been possible to have done something weird to do with using altitude adaptation for a marginal gain? Along the lines of quickly (heli) get JV up high for a period of time that is just enough to give a benefit for the TT or the (high altitude) Queen stage? Or just use an altitude tent? Seems unlikely though in the short periods of recovery between stages, even with a rest day..
This says: ''In a widely referenced 1982 study, Squires and Buskirk found a predictable reduction in VO2 max of approximately 8% for every 1,000 meters above 700 meters.''

andy moles

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 630
  • Karma: +54/-1
#532 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 11:21:24 am
Being that they've just spent 3-4 days static location in very closely proximity to a 4800m high piece of land, might it have been possible to have done something weird to do with using altitude adaptation for a marginal gain? Along the lines of quickly (heli) get JV up high for a period of time that is just enough to give a benefit for the TT or the (high altitude) Queen stage?

Think we're clutching at straws a bit when it comes to suggesting that Jumbo-Visma's secret is flying JV to the summit of Mont Blanc for a few hours on the rest day  :lol:

Or not  :???:

Dac

Offline
  • **
  • player
  • Posts: 81
  • Karma: +14/-0
#533 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 11:56:56 am
I’d like to think that the current era of pro cycling is relatively clean, given the massive level of scrutiny the top riders now live with. In addition any doping would require involvement from the teams (or at the very least a very blind eye to be turned), and given the damage the sport suffered due to doping in the past I don’t thing there is the desire from teams for that to happen.

Cycling is always going to suffer from the shadow of drug use, mainly due to it’s past (once upon a time I thought Armstrong was clean, and it was just the French press who hated him). But also because of ongoing issues with the Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) system: it’s doctors employed by the team who issue TUE’s, a fairly obvious conflict of interests.

In addition if you wanted to design a sport in which to win by doping it would look very much like a cycling grand tour. Once you ignore the drama and romance whoever can consistently churn out the most watts per Kg over the 3 weeks is probably going to win. Most other sports are more dependent on skill, luck, equipment, and the like.

I’m a fan of pro cycling, despite its past, and as such I often quite aggrieved by the constant claims of doping. Compared to many sports it seems willing to proactively pursue and punish dopers, despite the reputation all damage that ensues: something that sports like athletics and football have little stomach for.

PS I suspect the worst ‘proper’ sport for doping is MMA/UFC, they may as well go full professional wrestling and say “as long as you don’t take the piss, and the fans don’t care, then it’s all good”.

sxrxg

Offline
  • ***
  • obsessive maniac
  • Posts: 422
  • Karma: +35/-0
#534 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 12:21:52 pm
Being that they've just spent 3-4 days static location in very closely proximity to a 4800m high piece of land, might it have been possible to have done something weird to do with using altitude adaptation for a marginal gain? Along the lines of quickly (heli) get JV up high for a period of time that is just enough to give a benefit for the TT or the (high altitude) Queen stage? Or just use an altitude tent? Seems unlikely though in the short periods of recovery between stages, even with a rest day..
This says: ''In a widely referenced 1982 study, Squires and Buskirk found a predictable reduction in VO2 max of approximately 8% for every 1,000 meters above 700 meters.''

More likely that he used PED's with a short half life in the 6 hours from 11pm to 5am that they are not allowed to be tested by doping control

sxrxg

Offline
  • ***
  • obsessive maniac
  • Posts: 422
  • Karma: +35/-0
#535 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 12:44:10 pm
I wanted to believe at first, however after looking at the data that has been presented the last couple of days in analysis it seems Jonas was pushing close to 8W/kg, this seems to be outside the realms of possible (Jonas has now posted numbers higher than anyone from the Festina era of max doping, he is the only person to have done this doing it earlier this year and now on this TT) and is an outlier from everyone including Pog who seems to be a phenom and has been an outlier throughout his entire career. Jonas in comparison magically appeared a couple of years ago after being identified as having a very high VO2 max threshold by Jumbo Visma (the old Rabobank team with no history of doping  ;)), his results before the last couple of years were really not great...

A couple of other intresting things was him mentioning that he thought his computer was broken with the power figures that he was putting out during the TT, this generally would not happen for a pro who will know their numbers inside out. Can we read into this that the special sauce worked a bit too well. Would be intresting to see if the radio from his DS was telling him to push or if they were asking him to hold his pace/not blow up once they could see just how fast he was going (so as to not arouse suspicion). Also intresting to see Wout having to cover his face laughing at the time when Jonas crossed the line, it didn't look like disbelief. Wonder if the peleton omerta is in full swing once again and everyone already knows what is taking place.

Will Hunt

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Superworm is super-long
  • Posts: 8017
  • Karma: +634/-116
    • Unknown Stones
#536 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 12:45:21 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.

Wellsy

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1441
  • Karma: +103/-10
#537 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 12:54:06 pm
I’d like to think that the current era of pro cycling is relatively clean, given the massive level of scrutiny the top riders now live with. In addition any doping would require involvement from the teams (or at the very least a very blind eye to be turned), and given the damage the sport suffered due to doping in the past I don’t thing there is the desire from teams for that to happen.

Cycling is always going to suffer from the shadow of drug use, mainly due to it’s past (once upon a time I thought Armstrong was clean, and it was just the French press who hated him). But also because of ongoing issues with the Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) system: it’s doctors employed by the team who issue TUE’s, a fairly obvious conflict of interests.

In addition if you wanted to design a sport in which to win by doping it would look very much like a cycling grand tour. Once you ignore the drama and romance whoever can consistently churn out the most watts per Kg over the 3 weeks is probably going to win. Most other sports are more dependent on skill, luck, equipment, and the like.

I’m a fan of pro cycling, despite its past, and as such I often quite aggrieved by the constant claims of doping. Compared to many sports it seems willing to proactively pursue and punish dopers, despite the reputation all damage that ensues: something that sports like athletics and football have little stomach for.

PS I suspect the worst ‘proper’ sport for doping is MMA/UFC, they may as well go full professional wrestling and say “as long as you don’t take the piss, and the fans don’t care, then it’s all good”.

I would like to think cycling is cleaner than it was. I'm not particularly sure it is though.

That said I would not single cycling out, I think many if not all sports have the same problem.

remus

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2911
  • Karma: +147/-1
#538 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 01:43:34 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.

Easier said than done. A crash in a later stage could quickly eat in to any lead, and you'd feel a bit of a dunce if you lost it because you held back earlier on to make yourself look less dominant.

Johnny Brown

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 11472
  • Karma: +700/-22
#539 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 02:58:40 pm
Quote
him mentioning that he thought his computer was broken with the power figures that he was putting out during the TT

This stuck out to me too. Very weird, or suspicious.

andy moles

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 630
  • Karma: +54/-1
#540 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 05:24:58 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.

Easier said than done. A crash in a later stage could quickly eat in to any lead, and you'd feel a bit of a dunce if you lost it because you held back earlier on to make yourself look less dominant.

That and he was clearly massively jacked up to give it everything. Regardless of whether there was any special sauce involved, I believe him when he said he had surprised himself by how fast he was.

lukeyboy

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 547
  • Karma: +26/-1
#541 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 05:59:01 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.

Easier said than done. A crash in a later stage could quickly eat in to any lead, and you'd feel a bit of a dunce if you lost it because you held back earlier on to make yourself look less dominant.

That and he was clearly massively jacked up to give it everything. Regardless of whether there was any special sauce involved, I believe him when he said he had surprised himself by how fast he was.

Yeah I can relate to this. In running races I've started off feeling like I'm going at a comfortable pace, looked at my watch after a mile or 2 and I'm going at the sort of pace I'd only usually manage in a interval session. Or for a climbing analogy, the way that a successful redpoint often feels easy.

I also think it would be a weird remark to make if he knew he was doping.

I'm probably in the cognitive dissonance camp, but despite the evidence I don't think he is knowingly doping. Perhaps he is unknowingly doping but again I think unlikely.

Perhaps I am just a gullible idiot.

webbo

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 5034
  • Karma: +141/-13
#542 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 06:44:45 pm
What no one seems to have mentioned is JV’s bike handling. He was way superior on the descents probably putting 30 seconds in to TP on these alone never mind what he gained on the rest of the corners.

lukeyboy

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 547
  • Karma: +26/-1
#543 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 06:54:07 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.

moose

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Lankenstein's Monster
  • Posts: 2934
  • Karma: +228/-1
  • el flaco lento
#544 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 07:39:20 pm
PS I suspect the worst ‘proper’ sport for doping is MMA/UFC, they may as well go full professional wrestling and say “as long as you don’t take the piss, and the fans don’t care, then it’s all good”.

IIRC Pride, an MMA organisation based in Japan, was beloved for that approach - while it was running, fans would marvel at the utter ridiculousness of it.  A while back one of their old contracts was leaked, in the drug testing section it said “Performance enhancing stimulants of steroid based family are specifically excluded from the scope of the test!!

andy moles

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 630
  • Karma: +54/-1
#545 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 09:08:30 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.

No doubt true, but that doesn't explain why JV's performance stands out so much from the rest of the field, and from other contemporary TTs.

You can look at this https://twitter.com/eltiodeldato/status/1681383772204171274 and come up with explanations, but it does look really odd. Pogacar's performance was a significant outlier in that TT, and he wasn't even close!

Fultonius

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 4347
  • Karma: +142/-3
  • Was strong but crap, now weaker but better.
    • Photos
#546 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 09:47:03 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.

Actually, no. There was a very good documentary a few years ago and it went into the gains made since the 60s in running. Unless the science has changed since then, or it was in accurate, they were basically stating that hanian performance in the 60s was already hitting physiological limits and when you accounted for improvement sin shoes, track etc. there had been surprisingly little chbage in human performance.

I think it's a little different in cycling, especially the tour as recovery is so important, but still. If it quacks like a duck...

webbo

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 5034
  • Karma: +141/-13
#547 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 10:01:58 pm
In that case how have we gone from 8c+ to 9b in the last few years it can’t be down to the improvement in climbing shoes. Or is just down to knee pads  :lol:

MarkJ

Offline
  • *
  • newbie
  • Posts: 24
  • Karma: +4/-0
#548 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 10:27:44 pm
If you're going to cheat do you not try and conceal the fact by not looking freakishly better than everyone else? Maybe puff and pant a bit? Say "ooooh, that was hard. Yes, Pog nearly had me there, ha ha". It seems a bit daft to go out and break all the models for VO2 max/W per Kg.
Exactly. That was what I was saying on Tuesday - " if you're going to dope, then at least make it subtle, don't take the piss"
Jumbo Visma in the last week have destroyed the fragile confidence I had in cycling for the last 10 years.
One key moment for me was watching Daniel Friebe's interview with Tom Pidcock at the start of yesterday's stage . I don't know if anyone else caught that ?  Hopefully someone will post it on Youtube soon.
It went like this :

Daniel : "Well Tom, do you have one word you can think of, to describe Jonas's time trial win yesterday ? ... 'awesome?', 'amazing?', 'depressing?' ! ?.... "
Tom : "............. (fully 20sec of him looking uncomfortable, looking twice as if he was just about to say something, then deciding to say nothing)........ "

I discussed this with one of my cycling mates at work, and he said " Silence is golden"


lukeyboy

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 547
  • Karma: +26/-1
#549 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 11:12:48 pm
It's a good point. I also think the historical comparisons need to be taken with a large pinch of salt - the differences in training, selection pool, equipment etc. are vast. Like in similar sports, doping aside, you would expect major advances in performance over this sort of time period.

Actually, no. There was a very good documentary a few years ago and it went into the gains made since the 60s in running. Unless the science has changed since then, or it was in accurate, they were basically stating that hanian performance in the 60s was already hitting physiological limits and when you accounted for improvement sin shoes, track etc. there had been surprisingly little chbage in human performance.

I think it's a little different in cycling, especially the tour as recovery is so important, but still. If it quacks like a duck...

True for running, but I'd have thought not the same for cycling? Which I know you've caveated, but still the impact of equipment and technology is much, much higher than in running, and I'd also argue that cycling was a far more niche / less professional sport compared to running, versus where it is now. The pool of people going into cycling, and hence the level of potential ability, has grown hugely.

Your conclusion may still be correct, and I admit I am on an uphill battle against the circumstantial evidence, but I think it's important to note the differences.

 

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2024, SimplePortal