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Tour de France predictions (Read 157266 times)

Paul B

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#500 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 08, 2023, 03:41:30 pm
They use what they get paid to use. Bike manufacturers and equipment suppliers pay the the teams to use their stuff. That’s why you see rebadged wheels, but you can’t really rebadge a group set

Sponsors want wins. Vaughters talks about this in TdF Unchained (and the uncertainty of the EF team). I stand by my point, if electric groupsets were costing big teams wins they wouldn't be using them.

Cables do fail (stretch excessively), heck we've even see chain failures (Pinot the other year?) and I'm not really seeing the point about the fact you can adjust for cable stretch; what's the difference between needing to micro adjust an electronic mech and needing to twiddle a barrel in a race scenario? Both aren't going to be helpful during a sprint finish (whereas you can adjust electronic without hanging out of a car window and sticking your fingers near some spokes). A mechanical is a mechanical.

Will Hunt

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#501 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 08, 2023, 09:16:17 pm
It shouldn't have ended that way 😭😭😭

Gutted  :'(

MarkJ

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#502 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 08, 2023, 09:49:24 pm
Terrible
Maybe they can persuade him to postpone his retirement.
He was the fastest rider on the sprint yesterday.

MarkJ

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#503 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 08, 2023, 10:50:40 pm
A mechanical is a mechanical.
I take your point that you can adjust either, but you have much closer sprocket spacings nowadays and more failure modes with electronic.
I have been following cycling since 1978, and it's only in the last 10 years that I've seen people rolling along trying to ride in the 11 sprocket, waiting for team support. I have never broken a gear cable in 45 years of riding.

Paul B

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#504 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 08, 2023, 11:57:43 pm
I broke one six weeks ago. It broke in the shifter after a hamfisted change when I was riding back from the scene of my wife's crash.

Anyhow, mechanicals are a shit way for a race to be decided, I'm sure we can agree on that!

webbo

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#505 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 09, 2023, 09:39:20 am
I broke one six weeks ago. It broke in the shifter after a hamfisted change when I was riding back from the scene of my wife's crash.

Anyhow, mechanicals are a shit way for a race to be decided, I'm sure we can agree on that!
Going off topic. Shimano 11 speed shifters are apparently are prone to fraying at the nipple. So the inner cable needs to be changed about once a year.

andy moles

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#506 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 09, 2023, 10:47:12 am
Puy de Dôme should be exciting today, almost guaranteed Vin-Pog action at the finish.

webbo

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#507 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 09, 2023, 12:32:02 pm
Terrible
Maybe they can persuade him to postpone his retirement.
He was the fastest rider on the sprint yesterday.
He’s already been offered the chance to postpone his retirement.

MarkJ

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#508 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 09, 2023, 01:59:31 pm
Fantastic , yes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/66147017

Just watching today's stage, should be a good one.

Has anyone made a prediction for where Pidcock will finish overall ?
I think his target is top ten, but I'll stick my neck out and say he'd like to be higher so I'll say eighth.

andy popp

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#509 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 07:30:11 am
I know I don't know what I'm talking about, but yesterday might turn out to have been decisive.

webbo

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#510 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 08:06:15 am
I know I don't know what I'm talking about, but yesterday might turn out to have been decisive.
Possibly one of the most crushing time trial victories in the history of the race given the fairly short length of the time trial.

remus

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#511 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 08:17:24 am
I know I don't know what I'm talking about...

I think most sports commentary should probably have this prefix!

Possibly one of the most crushing time trial victories in the history of the race given the fairly short length of the time trial.

Especially given that if Vingegaard hadn't ridden Pogacar's time would have been considered pretty dominant. Wild.

Will Hunt

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#512 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 08:52:14 am
Let the doping accusations commence!

sxrxg

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#513 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 09:55:56 am
It is a shame the time gap has grown so large as it was shaping up to be a brilliant last week. It was an exceptional time trail though and whilst the winning margin may lead people to consider doping Jonas had been posting some exceptional W/kg figures in earlier races this year so it isn't outside the realms of the possible especially if he was on a good day.

Excited for todays stage, wonder if Pog might go for a long range do or die attack up the Col de Loze. He has over 7 minutes to 3rd place (who is a UAE team mate as well) so can focus on purely attacking now as even if he blows up he is unlikely to drop from second place.

Talking about 3rd place it was a much improved time trail from Adam Yates and it is good seeing a Brit on the podium.

lukeyboy

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#514 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 11:23:10 am
Excited for todays stage, wonder if Pog might go for a long range do or die attack up the Col de Loze. He has over 7 minutes to 3rd place (who is a UAE team mate as well) so can focus on purely attacking now as even if he blows up he is unlikely to drop from second place.

Agreed, it's a shame for the close duel to (appear to) be over, but I wouldn't put it past Pog to go for a crazy long range attack which would be great to see. He has basically nothing to lose.

Unfortunately I think the chances of it succeeding are low, Vingegaard just looks too strong and composed, and he has a great team to support.

sxrxg

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#515 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 03:53:38 pm
Reckon that is the tour done now...

Johnny Brown

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#516 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 04:29:06 pm
Pogacar lost the tour today. To crack so late in the event and after the more serious mountains, he surely can't come back from that.

Will Hunt

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#517 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 04:38:37 pm
Never doubt me again  :ang:

cofe

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#518 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 04:44:25 pm
Two almost unbelievable days from JV. Shame for Pog, but at least he was in the race at all or there would have been no GC race. Great racing till JV broke him. Let’s hope he goes for one more stage win now.

Paul B

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#520 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 19, 2023, 09:58:02 pm
Few too many "incredible" and "exceptional" adjectives in that article. Doping.

There are no human freaks, I think we pretty much know the human limits and, when people are "exceptional" they are EXCEPTIONAL. Shame.

Muenchener

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#521 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 08:02:11 am
Quite. The level of cognitive dissonance required to  show a graph comparing JV's climbing performance to Ulrich and Pantani without mentioning the D word is what I really find exceptional.

webbo

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#522 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 09:00:45 am
So if there is a new super performance enhancing drug. How come no one has heard of it and it appears that only one or possibly two teams are using it.

andy moles

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#523 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 09:15:29 am
I've read up a bit around drug testing etc, and it seems it would be harder to get away with as much now as they did in the 90s/00s - but I don't really understand it.

Rather than being some new super-substance, is it possible that riders could be pulling the same old tricks but with smarter ways of gaming the tests?

Do TUEs have to be made public?


Wellsy

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#524 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 20, 2023, 09:16:15 am
So if there is a new super performance enhancing drug. How come no one has heard of it and it appears that only one or possibly two teams are using it.

That happens quite a lot. There's a bit of an arms race in doping; developing new compounds which there isn't a test for vs developing new tests that pick up the newest drugs. That definitely is a thing, and it has happened in the past.

However my suspicion is that it is maybe that and maybe more just that some people don't fail drugs tests, ever, because the right people get money in their accounts. We absolutely know this happens in plenty of sports so it's not unlikely it's happening here too.

Edit: I think that probably it's not the cyclists gaming the tests (although they are, potentially) but that there is a team, a system even, by which that happens. Very few athletes dope alone.

 

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