[andy popp]

BBC News - Boris Johnson: Police 'called to Tory leadership contender's home'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48721211

A passing story? Or the gaffe that sinks him? Not really the sort of thing you want to hear about the man who'll probably be in charge of the nukes is it?

Its not going to make one single ounce of difference.

[Johnny Brown]

I'm now quite keen on Boris getting in tbh. I'm not sure Hunt will be any better or worse but he might be inoffensive enough to prolong his tenure. Whereas Boris will polarise matters, he will surely lose the DUP if he hasn't already, there will be a vote of no confidence and his premiership will be the shortest in history.

[mrjonathanr]

Disagree. Boris will see the parliamentary maths and go to the country in September/early October on the platform that the only way to leave is to give him a mandate at GE.

What happens then is anybody’s guess, but mine is it’ll be inconclusive and chaotic.

[TobyD]

Disagree. Boris will see the parliamentary maths and go to the country in September/early October on the platform that the only way to leave is to give him a mandate at GE.

What happens then is anybody’s guess, but mine is it’ll be inconclusive and chaotic.

I agree.  I have a nasty feeling that Boris will do a pact with the Brexit party and go for an election.  I'm not exactly overjoyed about Hunt but at least he is clearly competent. Johnson is profoundly unpleasant in my opinion,  never more than a rich incompetent journalist from a powerful political family.

[sdm]

Disagree. Boris will see the parliamentary maths and go to the country in September/early October on the platform that the only way to leave is to give him a mandate at GE.

This appears to be based on the assumption that Johnson's goal is to leave.

But for Johnson, backing the leave campaign was always a tool to further his own political ambitions. He supported the EU until he thought supporting leave could get him the PM's job.

You can never say never with such an unpredictable politician but I do not expect him to do anything to try and bring forward an election. With the tories losing so heavily in the local and European elections, why would he jeopardise his position as PM in an election which, at best, may return the tories to government in a coalition? I think he is more likely to abandon brexit altogether than he is to call an early election. As he showed in London, he is quite happy to campaign for one thing, then do the exact opposite after the election.

What happens then is anybody’s guess, but mine is it’ll be inconclusive and chaotic.

That's the one thing we can probably guarantee.

[tomtom]

My tuppence...

EU will not give us a further extension unless there is another ref or a GE.

Parliament will not allow no deal.

Tories want to avoid a GE at all costs....

Working out the path of least resistance between these three contradictory positions means (I think) either a

1. GE with Brexit party Tory co-allition with farage given some role 🤮 like Toby’s idea and as also suggested by Sarah’s wolloston (I think)

2. Johnson somehow works some of his ‘magic’ to persuade the ERG etc.. that we need another ref

Both of these are firmly in the kicking the can down the road category....

My other tuppences are....
1. I think this is a zero game for the Tories. They loose whatever happens... hard brexit and they won’t be forgiven for generations. Brexit party alliance and their central remainish wing will flee.
2. The same for Labour but not so bad - they risk being split even more - but they won’t ‘own’ the mess unlike the Tories.l

It’s a sad reflection of how far this has gone - that I caught myself almost wishing Boris had been made leader 2.5 years ago - as we’d probably have found out how shit he was and come to a polarised (as Jb put it) solution of some sort rather than endless May based dithering. I realise how fucked up this thinking is but that partly reflects what a mess it all is!

[mrjonathanr]

This appears to be based on the assumption that Johnson's goal is to leave.

But for Johnson, backing the leave campaign was always a tool to further his own political ambitions. He supported the EU until he thought supporting leave could get him the PM's job

I agree with much of your reasoning but not with this.

Boris will take any position as a vehicle to get the top job- agreed.

For all his character failings he is an astute politician who knows that the ‘Europe issue’ has done for pretty much every Tory premier since Heath. He will be trapped, just like May was, in promising unicorns to the ultras who will bring him down sooner rather than later if he doesn’t deliver.

He’d no doubt do any number of u turns to secure his position but will be brought down by his own right if he doesn’t stick to the Brexit cause.

This is why he will call a GE.

[mrjonathanr]

My tuppence...


1. I think this is a zero game for the Tories. They loose whatever happens... hard brexit and they won’t be forgiven for generations. Brexit party alliance and their central remainish wing will flee.

I think the Tories are increasingly morphing into a vehicle for English Nationalism so the remainer wing is becoming more of a rump.

[Oldmanmatt]

My tuppence...


1. I think this is a zero game for the Tories. They loose whatever happens... hard brexit and they won’t be forgiven for generations. Brexit party alliance and their central remainish wing will flee.

I think the Tories are increasingly morphing into a vehicle for English Nationalism so the remainer wing is becoming more of a rump.

This.

They are abandoning any pretence of civility or decorum and embracing their Bullingdon Boy core. It’s not really nationalist, it’s pure elitism.
Just look at the justification offered by so many for the actions of Field and the Torygraph piece about how “these aren’t real protestors” etc (implying they hold less rights etc).

For the first time ever, and despite really disliking Corbyn, I will vote Labour, if a GE is called.
I switched from Tory to LibDem in 2008, that’s how far the current climate has shifted my compass.
I never expected truth or honesty from politics or politicians, but the sheer brutality of the “Austerity” and the awful, cocky, disgusting, spoilt public schoolboy, misogyny and xenophobia of the current Tory party, turns my stomach.

[joel182]

According to YouGov, Boris is the most popular politician in the UK.

Corbyn manages to come in at third, but only because of his support from millennials who don't vote anyway.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see BoJo do very well out of a general election.

[Oldmanmatt]

According to YouGov, Boris is the most popular politician in the UK.

Corbyn manages to come in at third, but only because of his support from millennials who don't vote anyway.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see BoJo do very well out of a general election.

There has to be something off there?
May is the second most popular, too, but hardly shone in the last GE, so...

In reality, they seem to be much of a much in popularity and I don’t think you can assume May’s supporters will automatically switch to Johnson. We already saw a large defection to LD in Euro and local elections (aside from the BP defectors). So, I cannot envision him as some unifying messiah to save the Tories. The left, always split into separate parties of moderates and (more) extremist (LD and Lab) are finally facing a divided Right. Essentially, the divided “liberal” vote keeps us under minority rule of the Right.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-no-deal-tory-vote-down-pm-leader-grieve-a8970066.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1561202991

Loving the fact that “some Labour” MP’s are pretty sure Corbyn will not go through with his threat, again. That bloke is a total wet tissue.

[mrjonathanr]

They are abandoning any pretence of civility or decorum and embracing their Bullingdon Boy core. It’s not really nationalist, it’s pure elitism.

You are looking at the MPs. Look at the membership, it's increasingly nationalist. I suspect the Union is not going to survive in its current form.

[joel182]

According to YouGov, Boris is the most popular politician in the UK.

Corbyn manages to come in at third, but only because of his support from millennials who don't vote anyway.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see BoJo do very well out of a general election.

There has to be something off there?
May is the second most popular, too, but hardly shone in the last GE, so...

In reality, they seem to be much of a much in popularity and I don’t think you can assume May’s supporters will automatically switch to Johnson. We already saw a large defection to LD in Euro and local elections (aside from the BP defectors). So, I cannot envision him as some unifying messiah to save the Tories. The left, always split into separate parties of moderates and (more) extremist (LD and Lab) are finally facing a divided Right. Essentially, the divided “liberal” vote keeps us under minority rule of the Right.

A 4 percentage points difference is potentially pretty significant. Especially when looking into the demographic split. Their polls also show that May is most popular among those aged 55 and over - Boris is much more popular among 35-55 year old voters than May.

You don't need to see him as a unifying messiah, just as someone who has huge support among Conservatives and Brexit Party supporters, and as someone who was able to win two consecutive London Mayoral elections (wonder when we'll next see a Tory do that?).

[TobyD]

[For the first time ever, and despite really disliking Corbyn, I will vote Labour, if a GE is called.
I switched from Tory to LibDem in 2008, that’s how far the current climate has shifted my compass.
I never expected truth or honesty from politics or politicians, but the sheer brutality of the “Austerity” and the awful, cocky, disgusting, spoilt public schoolboy, misogyny and xenophobia of the current Tory party, turns my stomach.

I see an equivalent vein of elitism in Corbyns cadre in the Labour party though Matt, the promotion of total incompetence (Abbott), Stalinist  tendencies (Milne , Murray), the routine casual antisemitism (many), appalling foreign policy leanings (Columbia,  Russia, Iran...) I could go on... I honestly feel that the only vaguely ethical choice is liberal democrat, green or independent.  This is not only because I think we should be in the EU, I'd happily vote for a conservative or labour party if they weren't both currently steered by cockwombles.

[chris j]

Speaking as a lifelong Tory and optimistic Leave voter (based on the naive idea the negotiations would be sensible with give and take on both sides,  repented of as soon as the Irish border raised its head), the Tory party in its current form is dead to me.

Mind you, so is the labour party with Corbyn and his cadre in charge for most of the reasons Toby lists.

Do the lib dems have any policies other than no Brexit? (I voted lib dem in the euro elections)

Electorally the Tories seem to be in a no win situation,  they can face annihilation if they don't neutralise Farage,  or they can face fractionally less complete annihilation when the one nation 'wet' side of the party like myself walks away in disgust. They only have themselves to blame.

I think BoJo  has missed his time and is 3 years past his best now,  he's not the bumbling buffoon from HIGNFY anymore,  he's the idiot who's thoughtlessness kept Mrs Zaghani Ratcliffe in an Iranian jail who refuses to accept any responsibility for what he said. He'll play well enough with the Tory membership that he'll become PM, but not for very long. And than we can have a GE and watch the horse trading to build a coalition begin (and prove we are really as European as Germany or Italy or Spain or Belgium...)

[Oldmanmatt]

Nevertheless, Labour currently appear the lesser of two evils.

It is as though the Cons have said to themselves “No Deal Brexit is the dream of a Buffoon, therefore we must engage the greatest Buffoon the nation has ever know, to lead us to La La Land, upon his Unicorn steed, to battle cries of casual Misogyny, Racism and Xenophobia”.

The dream of grey old men and pearl clutching, twin set clad, perm adorned, old women.
The dream of finally being able to say all those things they’ve suppressed for so long, to tell everyone not them, how wrong they are to not be them. To revel in their own superiority.

This I feel is a worse future than the risk of a little light socialism, tempered by democratic process.
I’d rather see a LD Government, one of moderation, compromise and pragmatism. To see the ideology of both Right and Left consigned to the compost heap of history.

It’s unlikely.

Humans don’t work that way.
We overreact.
Babies get thrown out with the water of every bath we run and every little set back is entirely the fault of the other team.

[chris j]

Nevertheless, Labour currently appear the lesser of two evils.


I’d rather see a LD Government, one of moderation, compromise and pragmatism. To see the ideology of both Right and Left consigned to the compost heap of history.

I struggle with your first sentence.  Jeremy Corbyn who wants Brexit and all his votes show he's wanted it since the 70's but in all this 3 years of debate hasn't had the nerve or principles to say it out loud. Jeremy Corbyn and his mates promulgating the idea "Intolerance is bad,  let's all be nice.  Unless it's people we don't like, in which case fill your boots and there'll be no come back". No,  there's a mean, nasty, spineless bullying streak in the top of the labour party and i don't want that anywhere near government. Both the conservatives and labour are as bad as each other in my book at the moment.

The moderation, comprise and pragmatism i am right with!

[tomtom]

I think Corbyn is more accountable to the membership of the LP than the Tory leader is to their (far smaller and less diverse membership).

Jezzface may want a brexit - but it’s a soft brexit and tbh if Labour get in it won’t be on a brexit ticket.

The math don’t add up. 45-48% of the electorate voted leave - and they would be split between Tory, Brexit party and Labour. The now slightly larger remain contingent would be SNP, LibDem and Green.

Which group (leave or remain) would Labour get most votes from? It’s a no brainier.

[Oldmanmatt]

Chris, how likely do you perceive the chances of  a balanced government? Or of a coalition of Centre and Left, that could outlast it’s own initial announcement  press conference?
Or that any party, not offering magic bullets and panacea, will win over the electorate at large?

Because I cannot see it. Hence feeling compelled to choose between two unpalatable extremes. The product of the current arms race, to present ever more polarised and contrary policies, with scant regard for reality. An arms race that has driven both extremes into almost identical shades of night and left us nought but the hope of grasping the least glimmer of light.
At least (Brexit being all but inevitable now), a Labour Government may provide some relief to those who have suffered under the awful spectre of Tory “Austerity” (which was only applicable to the poor and vulnerable, whilst encompassing the most stunning increase in wealth at the other end of the population).
Corbyn might be a price worth paying to see that end. Probably not the scalding hot shower and Dettol scrub the country needs and more than likely a whole new set of crap, but better than an Etonian circle jerk of elitist fuckwits.

[chris j]

A balanced government, there's not a chance,  is there, not without the rainbows and unicorns fantasy of moderate Tory and Labour MPs discovering their principles and abandoning their respective leaders (& committing career suicide in the process). I had so much hope for the independent group and then they went and royally fucked it up with their egos and believing presentation was more important than having a product to sell.  A coalition,  it'll be ugly on either side,  Conservative - Brexit  - DUP anyone? Or Labour - SNP - Plaid - Sinn Fein? I forget who's said they won't go into a coalition with who so far... With the first Scotland will be fighting for another referendum,  with the second they'll be in government so it will be handed to them on a plate and northern Ireland will probably be given away as Sinn Fein's price.

I still blame Twitter and social media in general for the lows political debate has sunk to.  Put across a balanced argument in 150 characters... No wonder all we get offered is unicorns and fairy tales.

[Oldmanmatt]

Trite, possibly.
But, I think a succinct summation within the 150 character format:

[Oldmanmatt]

I have just read a long form version of the above tweet (well, not exactly, but of a theme).

A very interesting deconstruction of the Tory party, by a Tory.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tory-no-deal-brexit-jeremy-hunt-boris-johnson-membership-voters-a8970281.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1561280830

[chris j]

It's frightening isn't it.  I've read a couple of similar things recently from different sources. Once the Tory party's purpose was to be the unpopular grown up and clean up the labour party's financial mess after they'd been in government and now the membership's happy to break the union and damage the economy... 

[sdm]

A balanced government, there's not a chance,  is there, not without the rainbows and unicorns fantasy of moderate Tory and Labour MPs discovering their principles and abandoning their respective leaders (& committing career suicide in the process). I had so much hope for the independent group and then they went and royally fucked it up with their egos and believing presentation was more important than having a product to sell.  A coalition,  it'll be ugly on either side,  Conservative - Brexit  - DUP anyone? Or Labour - SNP - Plaid - Sinn Fein? I forget who's said they won't go into a coalition with who so far... With the first Scotland will be fighting for another referendum,  with the second they'll be in government so it will be handed to them on a plate and northern Ireland will probably be given away as Sinn Fein's price.

Sinn Fein don't take their seats in parliament, they won't be part of any coalition.

I think there is a chance Scotland leaves if the UK remains and we end up with a left leaning coalition. If we leave and end up with a right leaning coalition, I think the chance of Scotland leaving increases massively.

I'm sure the Conservatives will come to some arrangement with the DUP if that is the only way to make a majority but I'm sure they'll think twice about it given the DUP's failure to support the Conservative position on brexit.

[TobyD]

Trite, possibly.
But, I think a succinct summation within the 150 character format:

Totally disagree. Hunt was far from a poor health secretary, he inherited Lansleys poorly thought out reforms, but he managed to vastly improve patient safety. The reasons that the NHS is creaking have little to do with any health secretary, austerity or any government policy. Johnson was by all accounts totally incompetent as a foreign secretary however.