[Bonjoy]

Whereas in bouldering, I think the potential for future progress is much more limited, and that limit is mainly imposed by the rock.  There will undoubtedly be some, but IMO the rock suitable for large numbers of high quality Font 9As just isn't out there…  Without hard bouldering just focussing on eliminates, I suspect the period of rapid improvements is nearly over.  But in sport climbing, the properly hard routes really are out there – high quality routes in large numbers all over the place in Spain and elsewhere.

I think given the sheer volume of rock out there in the world the potential for harder bouldering and harder routes both exist. I think the issue with both though is that of perception; Ondra is so far ahead of the game that I think he is going to have to adjust his mind set as to what he perceives as possible and challenging for him and start creating his own lines, not just getting pointed at existing projects (both routes and boulders) which others have seen as having potential and getting to work on them, and hoovering them up.

Thus far he hasn't really had his creativity in perceiving possible routes / problems stimulated (as far as I know) and I think if he does manage to develop this side of his climbing then I think he still has a long long way to go, given that he has no real limitations on his time, finances and enthusiasm.

I tend to agree with Nemo. The next generations of super hard bloc boulder problems do exist out there in the ‘wild’, but by their very nature they’re exceedingly rare. The closer to the physical boundary between just possible and impossible you get, the smallest change in any aspect of the problem will be the difference between just another prob which isn’t the hardest in the world and actually impossible. On a random medium like rock finding these perfect needles among the haystacks of easy/impossible is difficult in the extreme. The top boys will always rely mostly on realising projects found by lesser mortals. Being the best in the world is probably quite time consuming, not much time left for hunting down rocking horse shit. There’s still a comparatively large amount of scope for progress on routes and long probs due to the fact that the difficulty is spread across a larger volume of moves so the physical tolerances are much greater, a few easy moves here are offset by some hard ones further along etc. and the fact that many many existing hard things can be extended in various directions.
 I suspect that at some point the only practical way to climb the next generation of bloc problems will be to create them. I’m not talking about chipping crags (although no doubt some will take it in this direction), or temporary assemblages of bolt-ons, but creation of individual boulder problems from scratch on some other permanent medium. Maybe sculpted from quarried blocks or created in resin. These permanent installations will then stand as test pieces for the best to try and repeat, as per any other boulder problem. All it will take is some imaginative sponsors and a lack of other options for progress. Bring on the bouldering parks!

[slackline]

Bring on the bouldering parks!

Work on installing two new boulders at Heeley is due to start soon. 

[Bonjoy]

Heard this all before so many times. In 20 years 8c boulders will not even be news worthy and 9s will be getting put up everywhere.
The boundary between just possible and impossible just continues to get wider.

8C’s going up everwhere? Haven’t seen many popping up around these parts since Gaskins thing in 2004. Loads more boulderers, no more 8Cs. We all shit?


Grades can go up indefinitely, but only because the closer you get to impossible the bigger the difference in difficulty created by any given physical shift in parameters. Climbers will keep splitting the difference from here to impossible and giving it a number for as long as they exist, there is no end point. Each increase in grade is measuring a smaller physical change, it’s non-linear. Broken down to a flawed but simple example - a dyno between two sets of identical holds. It’s easy to set an easy dyno and an impossible one. The harder the grade of the dyno you’re trying to create, the harder it becomes to set. Each step up in grade is created by a smaller and smaller increase in distance between the holds. Assuming you accept this principle then it is QED that each generation of hard probs is harder to find than the last. Each hard prob is the tip of a vast pyramid of easier rock. The reason that hard probs are still being found is that the number of boulderers and new areas has increased a lot in the last 20 years. I could be wrong but I’d be surprised if as many new areas get developed in the next 20 year as got developed in the last 20, let alone the lon-linear increase you’d need to find all these (unchipped, non-linkup/trav) 9As and 9A+s. No amount of extra climbers will climb a 9A if they can’t find one. A handful of sponsored heroes might be able to dig a few new things out from far flung places, but generally the hardest things tend to get developed at the most accessible places.
As far as I can see (feel free to correct me), the only way I can be wrong on this is by hugely underestimating the amount of undeveloped areas yet to be discovered and already discovered next-grade projbs in waiting at existing areas.
Take the Peak as an example. Suggest me a project which will be the next step forward in grades. I bet you any money in 20 years your suggestion will either still be unclimbed (i.e it may be plain old unclimbable) or when climbed it turns out to be less than the top grade at the time it gets done. Granted lots of other areas are better suited to forming hard lines, but the same principles apply.

[tomtom]

I've wondered about settign up an alternative to a bouldering wall, which is a load of huge granite (or other scrittle based products) in a large field - maybe with a few canopys over some.. you can then charge folk for car parking/tea (or even admision if you wanted..) etc...

I think the biggest factor hindering this is weight... from work on river revetments, once you get above a c.2m by 2m block the equipment needed to move (>15 tonnes) increasingly heavy lumps of rock becomes scarcer and much much more expensive! I guess you could have lumps joined together - but that wouldnt really work.

It would be cool though to make a bouldering stone henge of 4m high granite blocks

[Andy F]

Heard this all before so many times. In 20 years 8c boulders will not even be news worthy and 9s will be getting put up everywhere.
The boundary between just possible and impossible just continues to get wider.

Suggest me a project which will be the next step forward in grades.

Gaskins long term thing next to Hubble?

[Bonjoy]

That's a route.

[andy_e]

Si O'Conman's problems?

[Bonjoy]

Si O'Conman's problems?

So far these have all proved to be either much easier than cutting edge, or just blank bits of rock.
Mike Adams 'repeated' a supposed 8C of his this year. I think it was in the 8A+/B ballpark.

[gme]

Bonjoy
like i said i have been hearing this for years. There are dozens of things in the UK that are climbable but not quite yet, ditto everywhere. I could show you at least half a dozen that will be climbed in the future but not at present.

Loads of things that are relitive trade routes now where thought of as impossible 20 years ago or two blank to be bothering with. i know for a fact that Dan Varian is getting close to things in the county that were looked at and tried by the likes of Ben and Malc in the 90s and deemed unclimbable and now are going to be climbed at the 8b-c level. This only goes to show that things that the top boys are quick to right off as impossible will be done in the future.

Blank is blank but rock rarely is.

Someone once said that every time you do a project between two existing lines you create two more projects.

[andy_e]

Which one did he repeat? There's one opposite Dave Mac's 7B+ lip traverse thing that looks next level, Si O' gave it V15 or something. I'd be surprised if that was 8A+/B.

[Bonjoy]

Bonjoy
like i said i have been hearing this for years. There are dozens of things in the UK that are climbable but not quite yet, ditto everywhere. I could show you at least half a dozen that will be climbed in the future but not at present.

I know there are dozens of possibilities in the UK (not a lot considering the vast quantity of rock and the number of climbers).Post up what they are and we’ll see in time what becomes of them. I could do the same with lines I’ve seen, but like I said, I bet the majority end up being less than top grade or remain unclimbed indefinitely. Obviously some WILL be the next >8Cs, I never said the well was dry, it never will be, just that every grade is greatly rarer than the last.

Loads of things that are relative trade routes now where thought of as impossible 20 years ago or two blank to be bothering with.

Such as? The fact that some pundits couldn’t tell the difference between easy and impossible 20 years ago proves nothing. I think maybe people now (at least the few with the grounding to make a proper judgement) have a better idea about what is possible than folk did 20 years ago.

i know for a fact that Dan Varian is getting close to things in the county that were looked at and tried by the likes of Ben and Malc in the 90s and deemed unclimbable and now are going to be climbed at the 8b-c level.

I know at least one of the things you mean. I don't think it was generally pigeon holed as unclimbable though.

I think when I have had a similar discussion with Dan he was of the same mind regarding the difficulty of finding something just hard enough to break ground but not so blank (by blank I’m using it as shorthand to include other measures like hold spacing, angle and friction) that they’re unfeasible.

This only goes to show that things that the top boys are quick to right off as impossible will be done in the future.

I’m happy to agree that being a top climber doesn’t guarantee a good eye for what lies in the realms of the possible. Now, then or ever.

Blank is blank but rock rarely is.

True enough but it’s many many times rarer for it to achieve the exact level of almost blankness needed to be a new 8C

Someone once said that every time you do a project between two existing lines you create two more projects.

Hmmm, his name wasn’t Gary by any chance?





andi - Something at Coire Lagan, I don't know the name of it

[slackline]

I’m pretty sure when I have had this discussion with Dan he has agreed with me regarding the difficulty of finding something just hard enough to break ground but not so blank (by blank I’m using it as shorthand to include other measures like hold spacing, angle and friction) that they’re unfeasible.

See the blogpile in a few hours for some more thoughts on difficulty from Dan...

...falling upwards like Johnny but pulling like Moon.

Great Expectations by Beastmaker. inc, on Flickr


Great Expectations by Beastmaker. inc, on Flickr


Great Expectations by Beastmaker. inc, on Flickr

[AndyR]

I've wondered about settign up an alternative to a bouldering wall, which is a load of huge granite (or other scrittle based products) in a large field - maybe with a few canopys over some.. you can then charge folk for car parking/tea (or even admision if you wanted..) etc...

I think the biggest factor hindering this is weight... from work on river revetments, once you get above a c.2m by 2m block the equipment needed to move (>15 tonnes) increasingly heavy lumps of rock becomes scarcer and much much more expensive! I guess you could have lumps joined together - but that wouldnt really work.

It would be cool though to make a bouldering stone henge of 4m high granite blocks

Wasn't there an outdoor place near Olney that was made of granite blocks? I have a very dim memory of bouldering on something similar >25 yrs ago...

[SA Chris]

Didn't Ken Wilson conceive a "Koncrete Krag" many years ago? An idea worth resurrecting?

[duncan]

These discussions always remind me of a piece in Mountain in the 70s where Jim Bridwell opined that, as climbers were starting to acquire overuse injuries, grades were not going to increase much further.  He was talking about hard 5.11 (7a in Euros).

I can't believe we won’t be climbing a lot, lot harder in 50 years time.  Standards only started to properly rise once climbers could stop constantly worrying about their imminent demise.  40 years is not much time to build a knowledge of how to train, manage injuries, or simply climb effectively.  Look at 1980s climbing videos.  Some of those guys could pull quite hard but, let's be honest, most moved in an appallingly laborious, static, and inefficient fashion.  This is starting to change but I think this is one area where we still have a lot of potential to improve. 

Also, the pool of people taking up climbing is still very small.  It's mostly white European and North American guys from not very sporting backgrounds.  It does not include many people with the genetic potential of becoming really good climbers because these get attracted into other sports for cultural / societal reasons.

Finally, most people start climbing properly far too late in life to have any chance of getting any good.  There are some obvious exceptions of course and, increasingly, the very best climbers are the ones who have had a fairly intensive, if not structured, involvement from an early age.

When there are hundreds of thousands of climbers from many different backgrounds who have received appropriate coaching from an early age (and it will probably take several more generations to work out what appropriate coaching is) we will see some properly hard stuff being done.

[Monolith]

JG4eva. Not helpful but tru bru.

[Bonjoy]

These discussions always remind me of a piece in Mountain in the 70s where Jim Bridwell opined that, as climbers were starting to acquire overuse injuries, grades were not going to increase much further.  He was talking about hard 5.11 (7a in Euros).

I can't believe we won’t be climbing a lot, lot harder in 50 years time.  Standards only started to properly rise once climbers could stop constantly worrying about their imminent demise.  40 years is not much time to build a knowledge of how to train, manage injuries, or simply climb effectively.  Look at 1980s climbing videos.  Some of those guys could pull quite hard but, let's be honest, most moved in an appallingly laborious, static, and inefficient fashion.  This is starting to change but I think this is one area where we still have a lot of potential to improve. 

Also, the pool of people taking up climbing is still very small.  It's mostly white European and North American guys from not very sporting backgrounds.  It does not include many people with the genetic potential of becoming really good climbers because these get attracted into other sports for cultural / societal reasons.

Finally, most people start climbing properly far too late in life to have any chance of getting any good.  There are some obvious exceptions of course and, increasingly, the very best climbers are the ones who have had a fairly intensive, if not structured, involvement from an early age.

When there are hundreds of thousands of climbers from many different backgrounds who have received appropriate coaching from an early age (and it will probably take several more generations to work out what appropriate coaching is) we will see some properly hard stuff being done.

Who said anything about grades not increasing??

Grades can go up indefinitely, but only because the closer you get to impossible the bigger the difference in difficulty created by any given physical shift in parameters. Climbers will keep splitting the difference from here to impossible and giving it a number for as long as they exist, there is no end point.

Really I wouldn't expect any glass ceiling on grades in my lifetime. It's what those new numbers will be measuring that I was ruminating about.

[Fiend]

Good topic 

[slackline]

It's what those new numbers will be measuring that I was ruminating about.

After reading Dan's thread about how low-percentage the move on Great Expectations (8A+) is for him, perhaps differences in style/strength between climbers perhaps? 

Obviously this would defeat the point of any grading system, but some boulder problems and routes already get split grades based on morphology.

[carlisle slapper]

This is a decent subject and i'm well interested in it.

Basically you have to look at a lot of factors on a country by country basis.
It all needs a good biostats person to work it out. The most important thing is timeframe (how long and how many generations will get the opportunity). Personal transport has hugely accelerated the development curve and without it the playing field changes irrecoverably. unless energy sustainability is maintained people wont be driving to the crags in 100years time. fact so no new "developments". 2050 is a much bandied likely cut off (albeit a tad malthusian but we're alot smarter than we were). We werent climbing hard from BC whatever-1970ishAD for a reason. So thats a decent timescale of 40years, of course a lot can change before then but its at least worth a mention.

Then you've got genetics, avoiding injuries and living near enough an area with decent potential as local hard projects will be 10times harder than something done on your holidays. All tricky factors. Along with living near these areas you've got to be suited to the line. I'm pretty sure bouldering will split more into things like hard compression challenges and hard face hold challenges, with obvious blending between the two. Compression & pinching takes real squeeze power. Dynos, slabs, roofs etc are other obvious niches but the next gen factors are even rarer. slabs especially are way more susceptible to being scuppered by blankness or too bigger holds. There are loads of gaps left though for beasts to get stuck in. Chances are next gen stuff will be steep unless a true visionary comes about.

I also am only considering next gen stuff to be linking single move 8Bs or 8B into 8A 8A+ single moves etc. No 8B+ or harder i've seen except Gaskins link multiple 8A moves and we have to remember that jon has the least provable record of any established hard boulderer in the world. I.e. least amount of witness or video evidence in relation to difficulty. just a point worth noting, his problems are very much at the cutting edge though.

I'd consider myself to be a crap hold specialist, so i'm shitter at dynamic climbing and could never approach cutting edge there without years of dedication. That said you can do any move off a crap hold that you can do off a good one if you can put enough power into it.

I can easily see climbers emerging from all our bouldering walls, starting at age 4 etc who will be capable of 8B single moves fast enough that it doesn't bore them out their skulls trying it 100 odd times like it would me. Whether or not they'll emerge and be psyched to develop blocs is another thing... especially in the UK. Chances are foreign areas and comps will be more of a draw. A bit of old school apprenticeship will definitely help in this area. 

There are a bunch of projects which i can conceive of going in the UK. Just for GME... there are easily 3 lines at kyloe in that'll be in a future wads circuit 2 at bowden, and 1 at backers. only one of which is a roof! the rest are gently overhanging. By Next Gen i can pretty much pull on in a few places.

I reckon the limiting factors aren't strength which is easy to gain nowadays thanks to pioneering by Bachar, moon moffat, wolfie, gaskins and Malc. but mental tenacity (investing years into a project takes its toll, Dura Dura is a good film about that) and the desire to push into the unknown, having all 3 is a lot harder in our current world of distractions. Take Malc, Hubble at 18, younger than Ondra when he did it with much more power to spare and not really arsed about developing at all, save for the incredible monk life almost all other FAs are hard link ups, which is fine, but he's probably still ahead of most of the world in terms of bouldering strength. Life has to get in the way sometime. There have been loads of development advances which no one really notices but have a huge effect too, Google earth, geograph.org are responsible for loads of new areas and they've only been available a few years.

If it wasn't for Gaskins Hubble would still be in the top 3 hardest problems in the UK move for move, which shows how far things have gone in 21years! Mind you I reckon it wont be long now (thanks to all the new bouldering walls) before more and more Tyler style kids emerge and one of them might end up bothering to really push things forward in the UK. I hope he's called Spike! Ashima is a clear example of this, i bet she could do a just off vertical face climb (someone finding it for her is the hard bit) at the moment on frictiony rack crimps that barely anyone could touch, weighing 20-30kg with strong fingers is a pretty cool tool to have at your disposal.