[tomtom]

More importantly...

[petejh]

A nugget of wisdom

[stone]

I realize I’ve been really vague in chuntering about how currency union without fiscal union creates destructive vicious cycle feedback loops as in the Eurozone. This is what I mean:
Think of two neighbouring countries that seem perfect candidates to be in a currency union (best friends, lots of bilateral trade, similar economies). If each has its own currency, then those factors will in themselves lead to a fairly stable currency exchange rate with undisturbed trade. For each country, whenever that government spends, that money spent can’t leave the system except by going back to that government as tax or as payment for that government’s bonds, so funding the government spending. If the financial markets don’t fancy the country, then the currency exchange rate will move and because the government debt is denominated in its own currency, the debt burden will stay just as affordable. People from one country may buy the government bonds of the other country but in order to do so they have to exchange currency first and so someone is always left holding the currency. It is a closed loop.

If those countries join together as a currency union but don’t pool their national borrowing and spending and taxation, then a euro spent by one country can go to the next country and be used to buy government bonds from the other country or pay tax in the other country. If the financial markets don’t fancy one country, then its government bond yields will rise. The increased cost of borrowing will necessitate higher taxes and cuts to public services. People and businesses will leave for the other country. The debt burden will become ever more unaffordable and the bond market ever worse. A debt crisis will ensue.

[stone]

Check out what Wynne Godley wrote in 1992:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that

  If a country or region has no power to devalue, and if it is not the beneficiary of a system of fiscal equalisation, then there is nothing to stop it suffering a process of cumulative and terminal decline leading, in the end, to emigration as the only alternative to poverty or starvation. I sympathise with the position of those (like Margaret Thatcher) who, faced with the loss of sovereignty, wish to get off the EMU train altogether. I also sympathise with those who seek integration under the jurisdiction of some kind of federal constitution with a federal budget very much larger than that of the Community budget. What I find totally baffling is the position of those who are aiming for economic and monetary union without the creation of new political institutions (apart from a new central bank), and who raise their hands in horror at the words ‘federal’ or ‘federalism’. This is the position currently adopted by the Government and by most of those who take part in the public discussion.

[Sloper]

The gloves are off now, I think that the recent events will probably damage the No camp more, the weather is going to be key, a really nice day will increase turnout and I think it's turnout that will be key, many of the No voters are the traditional labour bedrock with lower turnout rates than other groups.

A close cal but I think NO is probably just shading it now.

But today's going to be a real 

[stone]

Tomtom, I passionately believe that it is a big mistake to think that it is somehow more "radical" or "progressive" to have an aloof atitude towards nuts and bolts issues such as currency arrangements. It is all very well having progressive intentions but if they aren't backed by a constructive strategy then the outcome ends up just being waste and conflict.
I'd say my personal political inclinations are for raggedy edge wacky levels of progressiveness. IMO the only hope of achieving any improvements towards social justice and realization of everyone's potential etc etc is if attempts in that direction fully embrace the need to delve into the tedious nitty gritty of issues such as government financing etc.

[rich d]

There really is a lack of detail from both sides. For example how will an independent Scotland sustain public spending, when currently as part of the UK the Barnett formula gives a greater share of public spend per capita (19% or £1623) according to FT. And according to public sector employment report it has the 3rd highest public sector % of employment by region (behind NI and Wales). http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN05625/public-sector-employment-and-expenditure-by-region
Tax looks like it's being propped up by North sea gas and oil, is this prop up sustainable? What happens during price fluctuations? What happens with an untried currency? Also is all the North sea gas and oil actually Scottish owned?
My other questions if I was Scottish would be what would happen to business taxation if the head offices moved South.
What happens to the armed forces and all the land it holds? there seems to be quite a lot https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/318371/Bulletin_2013_update.pdf
Never mind, currency, border controls, NHS, DVLA etc etc

[Sloper]

There really is a lack of detail from both sides. For example how will an independent Scotland sustain public spending, when currently as part of the UK the Barnett formula gives a greater share of public spend per capita (19% or £1623) according to FT. And according to public sector employment report it has the 3rd highest public sector % of employment by region (behind NI and Wales). http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN05625/public-sector-employment-and-expenditure-by-region
Tax looks like it's being propped up by North sea gas and oil, is this prop up sustainable? What happens during price fluctuations? What happens with an untried currency? Also is all the North sea gas and oil actually Scottish owned?
My other questions if I was Scottish would be what would happen to business taxation if the head offices moved South.
What happens to the armed forces and all the land it holds? there seems to be quite a lot https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/318371/Bulletin_2013_update.pdf
Never mind, currency, border controls, NHS, DVLA etc etc

A fair amount of the public servant roles were shifted to Scotland, so in theory c.80% would return to England should they vote yes tomorrow, whether the people relocate with the job is another matter.

As for the MoD Land, I can see the rental on Faslane being a bit more than a nice detached house in Morningside. the issue of oil is who controls the licences & etc, not a public international lawyer but I'd say the Scots would probably be generating lots of revenue from exploration licences, I can't see there being an alternative for the oil industry to move out of NE Scotland.

Anyway 36 hours to go.

[i.munro]

Tax looks like it's being propped up by North sea gas and oil, is this prop up sustainable?

And tax across the uk is being propped up by casino banking - how sustainable is that ?
I'd suggest it's prone to sudden crashes.

You can't predict the future, which is why a single industry economy is dangerous & Scotland's economy would be less unbalanced than that of the uk

[SA Chris]

a single industry economy is dangerous & Scotland's economy would be less unbalanced than that of the uk

More unbalanced? Or less balanced? Otherwise I'm confused.

[rodma]

But what will become of ukb?

Will it become rukb and where will fiend get to post comments about training and ethics? Certainly not on rukc.

Scottishclimbs died a death after si oconner blossomed into full fantasist. There isn't really much to discuss without a good controversy.

What forum can I post on using ambiguous language so I can get upset about people not understanding?

[tomtom]

Tomtom, I passionately believe that it is a big mistake to think that it is somehow more "radical" or "progressive" to have an aloof atitude towards nuts and bolts issues such as currency arrangements. It is all very well having progressive intentions but if they aren't backed by a constructive strategy then the outcome ends up just being waste and conflict.
I'd say my personal political inclinations are for raggedy edge wacky levels of progressiveness. IMO the only hope of achieving any improvements towards social justice and realization of everyone's potential etc etc is if attempts in that direction fully embrace the need to delve into the tedious nitty gritty of issues such as government financing etc.

Hey Stone - I certainly didn't mean to convey any aloofness accusations to any of the fiscal examiners - its certainly important. Personally it doesn't interest me (yes - I know its important but I'm just not into the details of fiscal arguments), just naive idealism hoping that it would all work out somehow.. 

If the aloofness is coming from the SNP - I don't think they have any alternative (as I was trying to explain) but to try and maintain a (I guess slightly aloof) it'll be alright attitude to finance.

I like the word aloof though! I'm editing some PhD chapters at the moment - I'll try and slip it in

Anyway - we'll find out or not in 36 hours~!!

[tomtom]

But what will become of ukb?

Will it become rukb and where will fiend get to post comments about training and ethics? Certainly not on rukc.

Scottishclimbs died a death after si oconner blossomed into full fantasist. There isn't really much to discuss without a good controversy.

What forum can I post on using ambiguous language so I can get upset about people not understanding?

Roddy - its time to set up  sukbouldering.com - steal march on the IO's forum monopoly...

[rich d]

Roddy - its time to set up  sukbouldering.com - steal march on the IO's forum monopoly...

there you go it's already breaking up the British culture 

Sheffield rumours on twitter has already beaten you to the only worthwhile domains having.

https://twitter.com/ClimbingRumours/status/509719961972269056

[Sloper]

It seems in the event of No vote, the balance of power in Parliament to set a budget may be moving seriously towards the Tories.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29236901

[tomtom]

Roddy - its time to set up  sukbouldering.com - steal march on the IO's forum monopoly...

there you go it's already breaking up the British culture 

Sheffield rumours on twitter has already beaten you to the only worthwhile domains having.

https://twitter.com/ClimbingRumours/status/509719961972269056

Its not a very inclusive idea is it! I think SUKb has much more depth

[Jaspersharpe]

This thread is great BTW, I've learned more than via the big media outlets.. Whichever way it goes its another example of the quality of UKB residents

Completely agree. As usual I've leaned more from the collective wisdom on here than from anywhere else.

[Jaspersharpe]

Unsurprisingly, Spain say an independent Scotland will struggle to join the EU and that the whole idea is really bad.....

-- Spain calls Scottish independence a ‘torpedo’ against Europe - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f399df8-3e62-11e4-b7fc-00144feabdc0.html

[mrjonathanr]

Spain will veto Scots entry

[Sloper]

As I pointed out earlier, Italy and Belgium will also be saying NO. But although I'm not a Eurpoean Lawyer it does seem there's a clear distinction to be drawn between Art 48 & 49, but I would suggest what ever the law the politics will overhwlem the law.

Perversley though, an indepndent Scotland could be better off outside the EU but in the EEA

[galpinos]

As much as I want Scotland to stay in the Union if I was Scottish and had a vote, I'd be considering Yes. The main thing that would put me off is the fact the Yes campaign refuse to admit they don't have all the answers. The SNP can't have all the answers and neither can the Yes campaign, just a plan and a prospectus. Instead of just saying they can't be certain they claim to know it all.

[Duma]

[Jaspersharpe]

The SNP can't have all the answers and neither can the Yes campaign, just a plan and a prospectus. Instead of just saying they can't be certain they claim to know it all.

And when challenged on any part of the plan, refuse to answer the question claiming that "the debate has 'moved on'" or just say that the person asking the question is a Whitehall sympathiser (or if Scottish worse, a traitor to the cause).

E.g. Salmond's dodging of the question and insulting dismissiveness to Faisal Islam here.....

https://medium.com/@faisalislam/salmond-declares-victory-in-the-currency-war-295aaada44be

It's a very simple and clever plan that's been used many times before to whip up nationalistic fervour and it seems to have worked very well.

Pretty depressing that so many people have fallen for it.

[SA Chris]

Well if Sloper is right and the weather will have a large influence, it's not looking good; fog and a light drizzle. Delightful

[Teaboy]

Well if Sloper is right and the weather will have a large influence, it's not looking good; fog and a light drizzle. Delightful

You mean everyone will be at the beach enjoying a the Scottish summer?