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Tour de France predictions (Read 155494 times)

Stubbs

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#425 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 25, 2014, 01:58:16 pm
?

 :agree: Tinkoff Saxo have had three stage wins this year without their team leader. Including Micheal Rogers who only last year failed a doping test for clenbuterol later to be cleared following an investigation where he claims he ate contaminated meat.

Excuse sound familiar?

Do you think they would have let off one rider but not another if the circumstances were the same? There's a big problem with Clen contamination of meat in China http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/04/news/ban-rogers-clenbuterol-case_325084

When the drugs witch hunt start Twitter and FB are usually flooded with watts/kg and VAM data but as NCB pointed out, Nibs hasn't actually produced any particularly amazing times in the mountains, he's spent most days just sitting on the second tier riders and then having a dig at the end. I think that if Froome, Quintana and Contador were present he may look quite pedestrian in comparison.

moose

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#426 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 25, 2014, 03:27:46 pm
I saw some output figures for Nib suggesting Riis' record would have beaten him by 1 km! That the podium places are being fought out by cyclists who beforehand were just viewed as decent white jersey prospects says it all.  Nibs has been very decisive and visually impressive but nothing to alarm WADA. A horse racing saying springs to mind "all horses look fast when racing alongside trees".

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#428 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 25, 2014, 04:53:24 pm
Nibs performance has been quite believable and brilliant. I'd give Horner's performance in last year's Vuelta as an example of unbelievable.

He also won this tour on day five in northern France when he rode magnificently, not in the mountains. If the others can't handle the obstacles placed in front of them or indeed stay on their bikes, that's not his problem. He's taken chances to gain more time in the mountains, but he's only really needed to defend. Hats off.

Now he has all three, I'd like to see him and Quintana go head to head next year.

Incidentally, Nibali's GT performances are impressively consistent:

Giro (19th, 11th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st)
TdF (20th, 6th, 3rd, 1st)
Vuelta (1st, 7th, 2nd)


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#430 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 25, 2014, 05:41:35 pm
that site is one of my regular reads - it has some very interesting features on barefoot running and disabled "blade-runners" too.


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#432 Re: Tour de France predictions
June 22, 2015, 12:04:01 pm
I'm going to get in early this year with a very vague set of predictions.

I think that there are groups of riders that could end up in any order really so my prediction is going to not have any specific predictions.

1 & 2 : Contador & Froome. (Hopefully Contador as I dislike him the least)

3 - 8 : Quintana, Nibali, Teejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Roman Bardet, Valverde (in a vague order)

9 - 10 : Laurens ten Dam, Joaquim Rodriguez


Then obvs Peter Sagan will win the Green Jersey and probably for the next 5 years too.

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#433 Re: Tour de France predictions
June 22, 2015, 12:57:18 pm
I'd swap froome and nibs but what do I know? Will it rain on the pave? Will froome hit form for the hills at the end?

Duma

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#434 Re: Tour de France predictions
June 22, 2015, 01:35:06 pm
With the cobbles in the first week (froome), quintana not racing for ages, dodgy form (nibs, but then his dauphine was dodgy last year too), contador with the giro in his legs, I don't know what to say.

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#435 Re: Tour de France predictions
June 22, 2015, 02:19:47 pm
Of the "big four", Contador should be tired, Froome has seemed fragile for the past couple of years (illness and injury), Quintana has to watch his back for Valverde and Nibali is on a team that seem to be regarded as well dodgy.

It could be anyone.

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#436 Re: Tour de France predictions
June 22, 2015, 02:43:21 pm
Very interesting read....
http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the-physiology-at-the-front-of-the-tour/

Interesting. Last year was a funny Tour because once Froome and Contador were out Nabali was in a league of his own and rarely seemed to be stretching himself.
 
Specifically relating to his times on Hautacam and another climb, I forget which, I thought very insightful was a short interview on the cycling podcast: Dave Brailsford was asked after a stage seemingly ad hoc
'what do you think of Nabalis performance today, his time on the final climb?'
reply
'It was good, exactly what we'd expect given the conditions, about where we'd expect Chris to be'
'so not suspicious?'
'Not at all'
(I have paraphrased I don't remember it verbatim)

The implication being that Sky had figured all the power data beforehand and knew what a good clean time would be and that is what he's referring to. Thats assuming Froome is clean also and Dave Brailsford isn't also lying. I took both Nibali and Brailsford at face value.



This year the first week will be great; given what happened in the first week of TDF 2014 you have to imagine Sky and Saxo will already have the jitters about Nibali and how they stop the same scenario unfolding.

You could say both their crashes were random bad luck but more realistically they were already on the back foot trying to make up time, particularly Contador racing downhill in the wet, first week, you think he'd know better.

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#437 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 14, 2016, 04:20:53 pm
Madness today! Porte and Froome crashed ibto the back of one of the motorbikes and froome left running up the hill - having had a chunk of time over Quintana at that point!  See what happens!

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#438 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 14, 2016, 06:42:06 pm
Madness today! Porte and Froome crashed ibto the back of one of the motorbikes and froome left running up the hill - having had a chunk of time over Quintana at that point!  See what happens!

Completely nuts! It was a great move by the 3 of them and looks like the times have now been sorted.

rich d

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#439 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 14, 2016, 10:40:21 pm
Feel sorry for the 3 of them, they were putting time into the other GC contenders, best decision by the race commis, don't understand why people were booing at the presentation of the yellow journey, as everyone who was being distanced were losing time about 15 seconds at the time, and could well have ended with more.
They've got to look at holding crowds back on the honey spots of climbs, probably extending down from the summit.
Fair play to Froome trying to run up the mountain, been a great tour so far, Sky and Froome coming out with some different and exciting tactics and Yates, Cummings and Cav proper flying the GB flag

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#440 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 14, 2016, 11:46:45 pm
A massive shame it couldn't have been left to the racing to sort out the final positions. Froome, Porte and Mollema had fully got the spanking of Quintana, and Yates was pulling away to join them. It could have been classic, it ended up being infamous. Right decision, but I just feel cheated out of what could have been a brilliant days racing. Chapeau to Froome for not giving up and legging it, and Yates, what is there to say? So impressed by him, hope he keeps it up!

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#441 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 15, 2016, 08:25:14 am
Apparently you have to finish with your bike so had he crossed the line on foot his time wouldn't have stood anyway. What I can't work out from that rule though is at what point do you give him a time? When his team car with his spare bike turns up? Or one of the spare pool bikes?

There does need to be something done about the crowds on the big stage sections, it's been like this for years though and there seems a reluctance to add more barriers or better manage support vehicles and bikes. Be interesting to see if anything gets done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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#442 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 15, 2016, 08:37:05 am
It really seems like the 'fans' will end up ruining it for themselves. Part of the allure of watching cycling is that you get to find your own spot and watch the riders go past with no restriction on were you can be. If it carries on like this, places like Ventoux will end up being fully barriered and ticketed and I think that would certainly detract from the atmosphere and excitement of the race.

dave

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#443 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 15, 2016, 08:40:36 am
I was going to ask if there is some weird historical cultural quirk in cycling that means we've got to 2016 and yet there's still fans all over the road on the TdF. It would be unthinkable in any other major sporting spectacle, regardless of safety issues. Imagine fans leaning over the table at the crucible during a frame.

tomtom

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#444 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 15, 2016, 09:08:51 am
Time to patent a motorbike/car with some sort of soft snowplough attachment / water/cs gas dispenser that goes up in front of the riders :)

Probably exacerbated by all the fans from the sections up hill being crammed into the lower sections and only 400m of fencing.

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#445 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 16, 2016, 07:13:33 pm
I see Cav's all washed up again, well past his best. :beer2:

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#446 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 16, 2016, 08:33:14 pm
Best YouTube link I could find, for those that haven't seen it.

No. 4:



 :2thumbsup:

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#447 Re: Tour de France predictions
July 17, 2016, 08:38:56 am
Great stuff.

andy popp

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#448 Re: Tour de France predictions
June 28, 2022, 08:07:26 am
No, I don't have any predictions (weirdly there doesn't seem to be an ongoing TdF thread) but the "Grand Départ" 2022 is going right through our nieghbourhood on Friday - really looking forward to enjoying the spectacle.

teestub

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#449 Re: Tour de France predictions
June 28, 2022, 08:23:15 am
Enjoy Andy, it was an amazing day out in the Dales when it passed through a few years ago.

 

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